府际管理视角下的长株潭城市群公共危机管理合作模式研究

长株潭(长沙、株州、湘潭)城市群在公共危机管理中的合作受到长株潭城市群观念困境、体制困境、制度困境等诸多因素制约。本文运用府际管理的基本理论,结合我国政治行政体制的特点和公共危机管理合作的原则,提出从公共危机管理合作机构系统、法律与政策合作系统、善后合作系统三方面来构建长株潭城市群公共危机管理合作模式的建议,以期促使长株潭城市群走出观念、体制和制度困境,实现更好更快的发展。     

Studying New York City’s Crime Decline: Methodological Issues

Methodological issues that must be considered in doing research on the New York City crime drop include the choice of a spatial unit of analysis, the choice of a mathematical representation of the processes responsible for the drop, and the choice of estimators. This paper considers the strengths and weaknesses of a time series analysis of data for New York alone, a panel analysis for the city’s precincts, and a panel analysis for a sample of cities, for studying the drop. The possibilities and limitations of precinct-level data are illustrated with annual precinct data for New York between 1988 and 2001. The paper considers static and dynamic fixed effects panel models estimated in various ways, including difference and systems generalized method of moments. These analyses find no evidence that misdemeanor arrests reduced levels of homicide, robbery, or aggravated assaults. Felony arrests reduced robberies, but only to a modest degree. Most of the decline in these three felonies had other causes.     

Could Innovations in Policing have Contributed to the New York City Crime Drop even in a Period of Declining Police Strength?: The Case of Stop,Question and Frisk as a Hot Spots Policing Strategy

Available data make it impossible to reach strong conclusions about the role of policing in the New York crime decline. Instead, we examine whether innovations implemented in New York fit with what is known about effective policing strategies. Our main analysis focuses on how the New York City Police Department (NYPD) could have continued to contribute to the crime drop over the last decade when the number of police declined significantly. We examine geographic data on crime and stop, question and frisks (SQFs) to show that SQFs are concentrated at crime hot spots. We also show that the NYPD increased these specific hot spots policing strategies despite declining numbers. In our discussion, we speculate on whether this “doing more with less” could be an explanation for the continued crime drop in New York, noting the limitations of drawing conclusions from existing data. We also raise concerns about possible backfire effects of SQF hot spots approaches.     

贵阳工业强市发展战略研究

“十二五”时期,贵阳市实施工业强市战略,对加快经济结构调整、转变经济发展方式、推进城镇化进程和保障民生等都具有重大意义,也是贵阳市建设生态文明市的现实选择。课题组通过实地调研,对贵阳市工业发展的现状进行了实证分析,并对贵阳市工业发展面临的问题和挑战、优势和机遇进行了分析。进而提出,贵阳工业强市战略要按照“走科学发展路、建生态文明市”的路径,坚持“加速发展、加快转型、推动跨越”主基调,加快工业发展方式转变,增强招商引资力度,重点发展和壮大特色优势产业、培育和发展战略性新兴产业、强化产业向工业园区集聚。     

上海特大城市派出所警务机制改革的实践与思考

推进派出所警务机制改革,是上海公安机关为适应在动态治安形势下,站在新的、更高的起点上,促进派出所警务运作机制由静态向动态的转变,提高派出所动态管控治安能力的必然选择。为此,我们必须不断探索,牢固确立派出所作为综合性战斗实体的功能定位,逐步形成符合上海特大城市特点的新型派出所警务运作模式。     

加快黄河三角洲发展的现实思考

黄河三角洲与长三角和珠三角相比,其发展具有独特优势,而这些优势却又制约了黄河三角洲的发展,这就形成了黄河三角洲发展的“条件悖论”,所以,在加快黄河三角洲开发过程中,必须打破这些“悖论”,才能真正走出符合自身特色的发展之路。