A Metric Comparison of Predictive Hot Spot Techniques and RTM

There are numerous hot spot mapping techniques that can be used in research and in practice for predicting future crime locations. Due to differences in the varying techniques, metrics were developed to compare the accuracy and precision of these techniques. The predictive accuracy index (PAI) and recapture rate index (RRI) were used to assess six different hot spot techniques. Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Crime, Nearest Neighbor Hierarchical, Kernel Density Estimation, and Risk Terrain Modeling were the general techniques compared in relation to their PAI and RRI values for short-term and long-term prediction of robberies. The results of the study were discussed with an emphasis on the utility of using multiple techniques jointly for analysis.     

维护失业女工的生育保险权益——各省市《失业保险条例》和《生育保险条例》研究

目前中国只有部分省市在其《失业保险条例》或《生育保险条例》中明确保证了失业女工的生育保险权益,大多数省市还不能明确保证,不利于维护失业女工的生育保险权益。国家颁布的《失业保险条例》或《生育保险条例》应该确保失业女工享受生育保险,各地在制定出台相关规定时,也应该主动关照失业女工的生育保险权益。     

Economic reasons for the break-up of Yugoslavia

The history of Yugoslavia continues to attract academic attention more than twenty years after the violent break-up of this federative state. Analyzing why it happened can be instructive in dealing with many unsolved problems in the region. The article will argue that deteriorating economics triggered all other factors leading to eventual disintegration of Yugoslavia. Specifically, during the 1980s external and internal economic imbalances, coupled with substantial regional disparities, resulted in a situation which was no longer acceptable to some constituent republics, especially the wealthier ones. Unfortunately, their secession was followed by a violent conflict which still resonates throughout South-Eastern Europe.     

人民币汇率变动对中美贸易结构收支的影响——基于SITC分类标准的实证分析

人民币汇率变动能否解决中美双边贸易失衡问题一直是国内外学者研究与争论的焦点。实证分析表明,人民币汇率的水平变动无法起到调节中美两国贸易收支的作用,但适度增加汇率波动弹性有助于缓解贸易失衡。因此,只有消除对人民币升值的预期、进行经济结构调整以及改善外商直接投资的流向,才能从根本上恢复中美之间的贸易平衡。     

Compounded Risk: The Implications for Delinquency of Coming from a Poor Family that Lives in a Poor Community

The relationship between poverty and juvenile involvement in delinquency remains central to the study of adolescent development, but firm conclusions on this relationship have been elusive. The purpose of this study is to address an important limitation of prior research that often has been overlooked. This involves the standard practice of examining the poverty-delinquency relationship with an exclusive focus on the family's level of poverty. This study considers that the effects of family poverty on delinquency may significantly depend upon the level of poverty in the community in which the family lives. Specifically, drawing from a number of poverty-oriented theories of delinquency, we examine the hypothesis that community poverty amplifies the effects of family poverty, such that family poverty's effect becomes greater when community poverty also is high. Using data from a national sample of adolescents that are supplemented with U.S. census data, we find partial support for the idea that family poverty is consequential for delinquency, and that this is especially true for poor families that also live in poor communities.

认真学习和自觉实践“三个代表”重要思想不断提高人民群众对公安工作的满意率

认真学习、深刻领导会、贯彻落实江总书记“七一”重要讲话 ,进一步增强贯彻党的基本理论、基本路线、基本纲领的自觉性和坚定性 ,进一步落实“三个代表”重要思想的自觉性和坚定性。联系公安机关的思想实际和工作实际 ,一是牢记“三个不能” ,始终保持同人民群众的血肉联系 ;二是强化公仆意识 ,真正从人民满意的事做起 ,从人民不满意的问题改起 ;三是坚持群众满意标准 ,把评判权交给广大人民群众     

从国际法的视角看我国当前人民币汇率政策的合法性

经济全球化对各国货币主权都产生了很大的冲击和影响。近来,我国的人民币汇率问题不断遭到西方国家的指控和非难。但是,从国际法的视角看,我国当前的货币政策是行使国家货币主权的一项重要内容和方式,符合IMF和WTO协定等国际法律文件的规范性要求,具有“合法性”。西方国家指责我国的汇率政策违反IMF和WTO协定是站不住脚的,干涉了我国的货币主权,而且缺乏国际法上的依据。     

波兰转轨以来汇率制度演变及启示

一国汇率制度的选择是因时而异的动态过程。分析波兰转轨以来汇率制度的变化。我国人民币汇率制度应考虑国际国内实际情况的变化并完善相关条件、把握汇率制度调整的主动权且渐进改革、根据汇率制度的演变进程有步骤地开放资本项目及协调好汇率制度与货币政策的关系并维护货币政策的独立性。     

China’s consumer credit sector expansion and monetary transmission mechanism: What should China’s central bank do?

In this paper, we argue that as China’s consumer credit sector is expanding, the central bank’s role in smoothing economic fluctuation and promoting economic growth becomes more important. We build a general equilibrium model with durable and nondurable goods to analyze how the consumer credit sector affects the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The model finds that an expanding consumer credit sector improves the efficiency of the monetary transmission mechanism. Two policy implications derived suggest China’s central bank should encourage the development of the consumer credit sector and liberalize market-based monetary policy tools such as interest rate tools. Her fields of interest are international economics, monetary policies and economic growth. Guofeng Sun is the deputy director of open market operation office of monetary policy department at People’s Bank of China. His research focus is the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The authors thank two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions. The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the People’s Bank of China.     

贯彻实施失业保险条例的几个问题

贯彻实施《失业保险条例》一年多来 ,仍存在不少问题 ,主要包括 :实施范围不一致 ;缴费比例不统一 ;开支项目随意扩大化 ;待遇申领条件人为地加以限制 ;经办机构经费难落实等。这些都是影响《条例》全面贯彻落实的重要因素。本文对上述问题进行了粗浅分析 ,并提出了解决的措施建议