中国失业：特征与对策

近年来,我国的失业问题日益凸现并构成对我国经济发展和社会稳定的尖锐挑战。我国当前失业具有城镇失业人口创历史新高,总量矛盾、结构矛盾与素质矛盾并存,“需求瓶颈”、“体制瓶颈”与“观念瓶颈”并存,隐性失业与隐性就业并存,经济高增长与城镇高失业并存等五大特征。缓解我国不断增长的就业压力,从根本上说来应实施经济发展与扩大就业并举的新战略和更为积极的就业政策。     

单位受贿罪司法运作的实践考察

单位受贿罪司法运作的主要特征表现为：对自然人被告的处罚极轻,平均刑期仅为0.497年,免予刑事处罚判决率高达62.3%;改判率较高,达16.4%;罚金刑的适用不统一。从立法上,要实现精准配刑,并且需要考虑将资格刑引入对单位受贿罪处罚的刑罚体系中,以弥补罚金刑功效的不足。能动的司法应部分修正立法失衡的不足,而不应将这种失衡推向极致。     

韩国的石油进口、实际汇率与内生经济增长

本研究建立了包括人均实际GDP、原油与成品油的实际价格和进口量以及韩元实际汇率的多变量模型,检验能源约束是否会通过内生技术进步机制影响韩国的经济增长。运用1970～2008年年度数据进行的Johansen协整关系检验发现模型中的变量存在协整关系。Granger非因果关系检验进一步显示:原油进口价格对韩国经济的短期效应为负但长期效应为正,原油进口量的短期效应不显著但长期效应为正,而成品油进口价格和进口量的效应与之完全相反,为能源冲击会在长期促进资源匮乏国家内生经济增长的假说提供了经验性证据。     

中国“高储蓄现象”的部门分析:1952～2008

本文测算了1952～2008年中国居民、政府与企业三部门的储蓄率并分析了各部门储蓄率的变化及其原因。本文的研究发现:(1)经历了一个较长的下降周期后政府储蓄率在国民储蓄中的地位已经居于居民储蓄与企业储蓄之后。政府储蓄率的下降一方面源自政府在国民收入中的比重下降,另一方面源自政府储蓄倾向降低,这与市场化改革导致的国民收入分配结构变化与政府的职能变化密切相连。(2)上世纪80年代中期后随着企业体制改革的深化,预算软约束逐步硬化,买方市场逐步形成,企业的效益有了明显改善,企业可支配收入在国民可支配收入中所占比重加大,因而企业储蓄在国民储蓄中的比重不断提高。(3)改革开放后,居民收入迅速增长与储蓄倾向上升推动中国居民储蓄率走高。企业与居民储蓄率的上升是中国储蓄在高位持续的原因。     

Employment Status,Social Capital,and Political Participation: A Comparison of Unemployed and Employed Youth in Geneva

Abstract: This paper examines the relationships between employment status, social capital, and the participation of young people in different kinds of political activities such as contacting, consumer, and protest activities. We focus on the role of social capital for political participation, addressing three related questions: Do unemployed and employed youth display different levels of social capital and political participation? Does social capital favor the political participation of unemployed and employed youth? Is social capital more important for unemployed youth than for employed youth? To address these questions we compare long‐term unemployed youth to regularly employed youth using original survey data. Our analysis suggests that the employment status has only a limited impact on political participation, affecting only consumer actions. In contrast, the social capital resulting from associational involvement is positively correlated to political participation. However, rather than countering the effect of exclusion from the labor market, it plays a similar role for unemployed youth and employed youth.     

民工荒、大学生失业与低技能陷阱

文章利用内生经济增长理论中研发投资与人力资本投资战略互补的思路分析民工荒和大学生失业的悖论.由于企业缺乏足够的激励进行研发投资,民工的收入预期无法提高,就不愿意进行人力资本投资.一方面,大学生得不到雇佣,另一方面,农民工技能无法提高,企业只有继续大量雇佣低技能的工人来促进增长,农民工陷入低技能陷阱.因此,中国目前的民工荒是一种畸形的劳动力短缺,知识失业也是一种不可持续的经济增长(粗放经济增长)的结果,需要通过增加企业的研发投资和农民工的人力资本水平来解决.     

The limited job prospects of displaced workers: evidence from two cities in China

The economic restructuring in China over the past decade has resulted in displacement of millions of workers who had been employed in the state sector. This has posed tremendous challenges economically, socially, politically, and culturally. For several years, Chinese policies attempted to cushion the shock by requiring state-owned enterprises to provide living allowances and reemployment services to workers who had been displaced. There have been few empirical studies that have tracked the experiences of these displaced or xiagang workers. This study uses survey data from two large industrial cities covering the period 1998–2000 to analyze the labor market situation of over 2,000 workers 2 years after they had been observed as displaced and unemployed. The findings point to the high rates of labor force withdrawal and a low proportion who find another wage job in the formal sector. It also documents the large number of workers who find work in the informal sector which seems to act as an important safety net. Not surprisingly, education is an important determinant of post-layoff labor market outcomes. Active labor market interventions do not seem to make a substantial difference although there is some evidence from the duration analysis that training does help workers find employment more quickly than they would have otherwise.

重大危机下我国失业保险应急机制的立法思考

我国现行的失业保险制度是建立在社会常态运行基础之上的．而重大危机所引发的较大规模的失业对失业保险制度提出了严峻挑战发达国家在应对重大危机引发的失业危机上具有相对完备的失业保险应急机制．而我国失业保险制度在失业危机应急方面仍存在许多缺陷因此,我国应借鉴国外的立法经验,从失业保险基金应急使用、支持企业减少和预防失业、应急就业培训、失业保险基金应急调剂以及失业保险费率动态调整等方面构建重大危机下我国失业保险应急机制。     

江苏省分类进出口对人民币实际汇率变动的敏感性

江苏是我国的进出口贸易大省,因此人民币汇率制度改革对江苏省经济发展的影响是深远的。为使江苏省进出口贸易保持健康发展,进而实现全省经济的持续增长,基于实证分析的结果,江苏省需进一步优化投入要素,发展多边贸易,扩大内需,提高企业对汇率变化的应对能力。     

反思交强险费率与交通违章挂钩——问题出在哪里?

保监会制定的《机动车交通事故责任强制保险费率浮动暂行办法》规定"保险费率与交通事故挂钩"。这一规定为保险费率与交通违章挂钩今后的"复活"埋下了伏笔。这种做法偏离了机动车交通事故责任强制保险的目的与宗旨,扭曲了交强险费率浮动机制的功能和本来的作用,有偏离法律法规的规定之嫌,且偏离了科学合理的原则。其实质是借用行政权力来强迫人们交纳不科学不合理的交强险费用。