Déjà vu All Over Again: Investigating Temporal Continuity of Adolescent Victimization

An important theoretical issue in the study of criminal victimization focuses on state dependence or the extent to which prior victimization causally affects subsequent victimization. Framing this issue are two conceptual arguments that posit divergent predictions regarding the impact of past victimization. While “victim labeling” suggests that the experience of prior victimization increases victimization in the future, “victim rationality” suggests that past victimization decreases subsequent victimization. To date there has been little longitudinal research that explicitly evaluates these competing viewpoints. In response, the current study uses panel data from a sample of adolescents to assess the merit of these opposing theoretical frameworks. Against this theoretical backdrop, it is shown that prevailing strategies for the analysis of panel data—random-effects and fixed-effects—produce erroneous results that add confusion to the debate regarding the nature of state dependence processes in criminal victimization. Drawing from advances in econometrics, two estimators that can overcome the problems that plague more traditional panel data models are used to provide a test of the competing victimization perspectives. Results from those analyses suggest support for the thesis that past victimization increases subsequent victimization, but the magnitude of this positive relationship is more modest than is indicated by analytic models that have been utilized in prior longitudinal victimization research.

苏区“国家政治保卫局”与肃反扩大化问题辩正

苏区"国家政治保卫局"是指我国第二次国内革命战争时期在各苏维埃革命根据地建立的,也是中国共产党在中国最早建立的具有公安保卫职能的政权机关。同时,第二次国内革命战争期间曾经出现过肃反扩大化的问题。对于这一历史时期国家政治保卫局与肃反扩大化的关系问题上,学界始终有着不同意见。有学者认为当时存在的肃反委员会和国家政治保卫局是导致肃反扩大化的主要原因,但也有学者认为纠正肃反扩大化的倾向是国家政治保卫局建立的直接原因之一。本文从历史文件的分析入手,试图从国家政治保卫局的成因、制度设计及其在当时政权体制中的地位等方面,探究第二次国内革命时期国家政治保卫局与当时肃反扩大化之间是否存在因果关系。     

梁启超：以“政体进化”为特色的中国宪政主义活动家

中国社会由君主专制向建立近代民主国家急速变化的大转折时期,作为近代政治家的梁启超与古代改良派划清了界限,即他将政治变革的希望明确地建立在“国民运动”的身上,这与革命派并无二致。然而与后者不同的是:其思想表现为重“政体理化”而抑“国体革命”,即希望通过“国民运动”,建立起以近代政党制度为主导,和向国会负责的责任内阁;而这种内阁又必须执行“保育政策”,便从经济、政治,乃至文化各领域扶助民力、民智以及参政能力的增长,使整个国家在较为稳定的社会环境中,实现向世界强国的发展。梁启超的思想包含着深刻的革命内容,正因为如此,当袁世凯要实行国体复辟的时候,他便旗帜鲜明地发动了倒袁护国战争。     

民国时期弱势群体的法律保护

弱势群体是一个社会当中相对脆弱的群体。在民国社会特定的背景之下,灾荒逃民、战乱流民、失业游民及老幼病残等人构成了民国社会的弱势群体,他们的生存状态堪忧,严重影响了当时的社会稳定。对此,民国政府作出了必的回应,采取措施,开展立法,建立机构,与社会民众一道共同推进弱势群体保护事业,确保社会稳定发展。民国政府在开展弱势群体保护的过程中,表现出保护对象的广泛性、救济措施的主动性、政府民间的合力性等特色,值得当下的我们进一步考察和分析。     

我国国民待遇制度的现状及发展前景探析

国民待遇原则是国际社会普遍适用的一项基本原则。我国的国民待遇制度的立法主要涉及一般民事权利、投资权、对外贸易、税收、知识产权、法律诉讼等方面。目前我国的国民待遇制度还存在一些缺陷 ,如“超国民”待遇、“次国民”待遇的存在。因此 ,我国一方面要淡化优惠 ,另一方面要减少限制 ,建立“对内、对外统一”的法律体系。     

柏拉图的正义观探析

柏拉图的<理想国>就是一部"正义论".在<理想国>一书中,柏拉图从批判可经验的具体正义着手,引出了国家的正义概念.他提出正义就是国家中每一阶层人尽其材、各司其职、不相僭越.柏拉图的正义观对后世产生了巨大的影响,同时也受到了许多的误解和批评.在理解柏拉图的正义观时,我们应把它放到古希腊历史情境的深处去思考,放到哲学情境中去思考,以免忽视了经典理论中蕴含的普遍性成分的永恒价值.     

The Zuma moment: between tender-based capitalists and radical economic transformation

ABSTRACT

The Jacob Zuma Presidency (2009–2017) was dogged by persistent allegations of corruption and the looting of State Owned Enterprises (SOE’s) by those allied to him. It led to allegations of state capture that placed the Gupta family at the centre of this project. These allegations have been highly contested, with Zuma supporters arguing that he has come under attack because of his support for the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), which they hold challenges Western imperial interests. Alongside this are those aligned to the Gupta family, arguing that the real culprits of state capture, both historically and in contemporary South Africa, is White Monopoly Capital (WMC), through its ability to determine macro-economic policy. At the heart of this contest is what has come to be known as tender-based capitalists who sought to use access to SOE’s for the accumulation of capital. This process has been defended on the basis that it has the potential to lead a radical economic transformation (RET) that that can challenge the power of WMC. Others have held that this argument is a mere fig leaf for the looting of state coffers, eroding its capacity for deeper developmental initiatives and fostering a parasitic class. This article that focusses on this debate that entered the heart of the African National Congress (ANC) and threatened to tear it apart takes the form of a conjunctural analysis; conjuncture defined as an amalgam ‘of circumstances, a convergence of events, an intersection of contingencies and necessities, a complex, overdetermined state of affairs-usually producing a crisis, leading to breaking point, driving to historic crossroads’ (Mowitt 2015 Mowitt, John. 2015. “In The Conjuncture.” In Cultural Critique. Vol. 89, 125–127. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press. [Google Scholar], 125).     

诉讼保障制度的必要性

法官自由裁量权的存在 ,使司法裁判过程既受到社会各方面的广泛关注 ,同时也不可避免地受到来自国家、社会、当事人 ,乃至社会公众舆论等各方面正当或不正当的影响 ,正确分析和了解这些因素对司法过程的不同影响 ,有助于我们进一步完善诉讼保障体制 ,以尽可能地减少或者防止其对司法独立与司法公正可能的不良影响。     

国家赔偿法弊端管见

国家赔偿法自实施多年来 ,赔偿案件少 ,赔偿数额低 ,获赔困难 ,有失当初立法的良好初衷。文章从立法方面对国家赔偿法存在的弊端作了一些探讨。