On the Complexity and Accuracy of Geographic Profiling Strategies

Geographic profilers have access to a repertoire of strategies for predicting a serial offenders home location. These strategies range in complexity—some involve more calculations to implement than others—and the assumption often made is that more complex strategies will outperform simpler strategies. In the present study, we tested the relationship between the complexity and accuracy of 11 strategies. Data were crime site and home locations of 16 UK residential burglars who had committed 10 or more crimes each. The results indicated that strategy complexity was not positively related to accuracy. This was also found to be the case across tasks that ranged in complexity (where complexity was determined by the number of crimes used to make a prediction). Implications for police policies and procedures, as well as our understanding of human decision-making, are discussed.To whom correspondence should be addressed. Phone: +1-709-737-3101; E-mail: bsnook@play.psych.mun.ca     

The effects of base rate and cutoff point choice on commonly used measures of association and accuracy in recidivism research

Several measures of association and accuracy commonly used in the recidivism literature are examined for their sensitivity to variations in the proportion observed to recidivate (the base rate) and in the proportion selected for classification as recidivists (selection ratio). Logistic regression models are employed on a sample of 11,749 convicted offenders to generate predicted probabilities of four recidivism criteria varying in base rates from 0.06 to 0.48. Cutoff point selections from 0.1 to 0.9 show the effects of cutoff point changes on the following commonly used measures of association and accuracy: RIOC (relative improvement over chance), MCR (mean cost rating), Φ, γ, PRE (proportion reduction in error), and percentage correct. While all these statistics vary across base rate and cutoff points, some vary more than others: RIOC varies across cutoff points more than MCR, MCR more than Φ, and Φ more than γ. Researchers comparing such statistics across studies need be wary of the dangers of ignoring such variation.     

论法律文书语言的准确性

法律文书要求语言准确,是由写作本质和其作为执法工具所决定的。探讨和追求法律文书语言的准确性应从语言运用符合实际,用语符合语法逻辑,用语不产生歧义等方面加强研究和学习。要正确理解法律文书的语言准确,还要处理好语言准确和模糊语言的关系,法律文书语言准确和文学语言准确的差异性。     

Validation of an Abbreviated Version of the Structured Interview of Reported Symptoms in Outpatient Psychiatric and Community Settings

This study examined the effectiveness of an abbreviated version of the Structured Interview of Reported Symptoms (SIRS-A) in identifying malingered mental illness. The SIRS-A is comprised of 69 items drawn from the SIRS (R. Rogers et al. 1992, SIRS: Structured Interview of Reported Symptoms: Professional Manual. Odessa, FL: Psychological Assessment Resources, Inc.), substantially reducing the administration time. A simulation design was used with three samples; 87 psychiatric outpatients who responded honestly were compared to 29 community-dwelling adults and 24 psychiatric patients instructed to malinger psychopathology. The SIRS-A generated sensitivity comparable to or exceeding that of the SIRS normative data, but specificity was poorer; many genuinely impaired patients were misclassified as malingering. Although these findings suggest the SIRS-A may be an effective means to assess malingering in psychiatric populations, further research assessing the reasons for the elevated false positive rates is necessary.     

论量刑精确制导

我国《刑法》第5条既是刑法的基本原则,也是量刑公正的一般标准,它要求量刑精确制导,最大限度地避免刑罚误差。实现量刑精确制导的根本出路是理论创新和方法创新,这主要表现在三个方面:(1)依法构建量刑标尺,将法定刑空间划分为200个刻度,把其中各种刑罚折算或者虚拟为有期徒刑的月数,明确1个刻度所体现的不同性质刑罚的度量,用以计算刑罚的轻重程度;(2)在正确定罪并找准法定刑的前提下,理性评价犯罪人具有的量刑情节,将其所反映的社会危害程度和人身危险程度用一定数值(积分)表示,借以计算行为人罪责的大小程度;(3)将量刑情节的轻重积分与量刑空间的轻重刻度按"1∶1"的标准相对应,前者在相应量刑空间中的读数,便是量刑公正的最佳适度。     

Deep learning for sex determination: Analyzing over 200,000 panoramic radiographs

The objective of this study is to assess the performance of an innovative AI-powered tool for sex determination using panoramic radiographs (PR) and to explore factors affecting the performance of the convolutional neural network (CNN). The study involved 207,946 panoramic dental X-rays and their corresponding reports from 15 clinical centers in São Paulo, Brazil. The PRs were acquired with four different devices, and 58% of the patients were female. Data preprocessing included anonymizing the exams, extracting pertinent information from the reports, such as sex, age, type of dentition, and number of missing teeth, and organizing the data into a PostgreSQL database. Two neural network architectures, a standard CNN and a ResNet, were utilized for sex classification, with both undergoing hyperparameter tuning and cross-validation to ensure optimal performance. The CNN model achieved 95.02% accuracy in sex estimation, with image resolution being a significant influencing factor. The ResNet model attained over 86% accuracy in subjects older than 6 years and over 96% in those over 16 years. The algorithm performed better on female images, and the area under the curve (AUC) exceeded 96% for most age groups, except the youngest. Accuracy values were also assessed for different dentition types (deciduous, mixed, and permanent) and missing teeth. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of an AI-driven tool for sex determination using PR and emphasizes the role of image resolution, age, and sex in determining the algorithm's performance.     

“终身监禁”刑事立法的刑罚精准性研究

对本可以判处死刑立即执行的贪污受贿犯罪分子实际判处死刑缓期两年执行的,同时决定死缓期满减为无期徒刑后的终身监禁,既不是执行"死刑"之"重",又不是减为可进一步通过减刑、假释使实际服刑期变得相对比较短的一般"无期徒刑"之"轻",既实现了罪责刑均衡,又实现了震慑其他潜在的贪污受贿犯罪分子的一般预防目的,还能够遏制司法腐败实现司法公正,对贪污受贿犯罪行为进行精准的打击。终身监禁单独设在贪污受贿罪里,正是考虑到贪污受贿罪的特点和国家的刑事政策而作出的,不仅具有很强的针对性,而且在刑罚轻重的"度"上把握到位,体现出刑罚制定和适用的精准性。从刑罚精准性的视角分析,终身监禁不违背罪刑法定原则、罪责刑相适应原则和刑罚效益原则,具备刑罚正当化根据。     

Own-age bias in video lineups: a comparison between children and adults

Abstract

The present study investigated whether child (six–eight years of age) and adult witnesses (18–29 years of age) would exhibit an own-age bias when trying to identify targets from video lineups. One hundred and eighty-six participants viewed two filmed events that were identical, except one starred a child target and one a young adult. After a delay of two–three days each witness saw a lineup for the child and adult target. Children exhibited an own-age bias and were better at correctly identifying the own-age target from a target-present (TP) lineup and made more correct rejections for the own-age target-absent (TA) lineup. Adults however, showed a reversed own-age bias for the TP lineups as they made more correct identifications for the child target, but exhibited no bias for the TA lineups. The results suggest that differences in identification accuracy may be due to whether witness age and suspect age overlap.     

Predictive accuracy of static risk factors for Canadian Indigenous offenders compared to non-Indigenous offenders: implications for risk assessment scales

ABSTRACT

The over-representation of Indigenous offenders in Canadian prisons highlights the importance of research on the generalizability of potential static risk factors for this group. The current investigation examined whether 87 static indicators currently assessed in Canadian federal prisons were differentially present and related to outcomes (revocations, general recidivism, and violent recidivism) for Indigenous (n?=?1500) and non-Indigenous (n?=?6684) male federal offenders. The follow-up was eight months for revocations and five years for any/violent recidivism. Indigenous offenders scored significantly higher risk than non-Indigenous offenders on the majority of the indicators (particularly criminal history indicators). Generally, most criminal history indicators and some offence severity indicators predicted revocations, general, and violent recidivism for Indigenous offenders; however, several of the indicators had significantly lower accuracy for Indigenous offenders (particularly criminal history indicators). Overall, Indigenous offenders are a higher risk population and several static risk indicators do not perform as well for this group as for non-Indigenous offenders. Nonetheless, there were numerous static indicators that did predict outcomes for Indigenous offenders. The current findings suggest that it is possible to meaningfully assess static risk for recidivism among Indigenous offenders.     

应用Demirjian法进行法医学年龄推断的评价

目的对应用Demirjian法进行法医学年龄推断的准确度及可靠性进行初步评价。方法应用Demirjian法测定828名上海地区青少年(男279名,女549名,11～19周岁)的牙龄,比较所测牙龄和实际年龄的差异。结果在11～14岁年龄段Demirjian法测定的牙龄比实际年龄高估,在15～16岁年龄段低估,在17岁及17岁以上年龄段具有局限性。结论Demirjian法可以用于测定上海地区11～16岁年龄段青少年的牙龄,使用时需进行适当的修正。