Long-term follow-up of criminal recidivism in young sex offenders: Temporal patterns and risk factors

Abstract

Recent studies indicate that risk for criminal re-offending in identified adult sex offenders may persist decades after the index offence, calling for inquiry into these issues also for younger sex offenders. The author studied temporal patterns for criminal reconvictions and the validity of 16 empirically motivated risk factors for recidivism among all young sex offenders (15–20 years of age) subjected to pre-sentence forensic psychiatric evaluations in Sweden during 1980–1995 (N = 126). The Ss were followed from release and for an average of 115 months. One-hundred-and-seventeen (115 male, 2 female) Ss were available for follow-up with a mean time-at-risk of 80 months. Base rates for sexual and violent non-sexual reconvictions were 30% and 42%, respectively. Using time-at-risk-adjusted hazard ratios derived from Cox regression, characteristics indicative of deviant sexual interest (any previous sex offending behaviour, an index sex offence in a public area, involving a stranger victim, offending on two or more offence occasions, and two or more victims) were found to increase the risk for sexual recidivism. Markers of antisocial lifestyle (early signs of DSM-IV Conduct Disorder and any prior violent conviction), sex offence-related characteristics indicating aggression proneness (use of threats or force and physical victim injury), and victim penetration, increased the risk for violent non-sexual reconvictions. Survival analyses indicated that the rate of sexual reconvictions as a function of time at risk decreased distinctly after 6–7 years whereas the rate for violent non-sexual reconvictions remained largely the same.     

Typologies,risk and recidivism in partner-violent men with the B-SAFER: a pilot study

The research describes the criminal profile of 100 imprisoned partner-violent men (PVM) in Spain, and the follow-up for an average of 15 months of 40 released cases. The ability of the Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER) to classify offenders according to typologies and to predict recidivism is analyzed. The results show that PVM have low level of specialization (only 45% limit their criminal activity to intimate partner violence (IPV)) and high level of recidivism (47% previously have been in prison, and 41% have prior arrest for IPV). The B-SAFER shows a high capacity to classify according to batterers typologies (accuracy of 79% with a score ≥13) in two groups: non-pathological and antisocial/pathological offenders. After prison release, 17.5% relapsed (15% in IPV), and 66% have done so within the first year. The B-SAFER had a predictive accuracy of 70% (sensitivity 100%). From antisocial/pathological group, 21% have recidivate compared to 12.5% in non-pathological aggressors, with an over-representation of antisocial/pathological subtype among recidivists (71%). The best predictive variables are the justification of violence, age at first imprisonment, and treatment. There is a 9% of recidivism among treated offenders compared to 50% in the untreated group.     

Application of operational psychology to assessment of inmates

Abstract

The newly developed actuarial risk instruments, Static-2002 (Hanson & Thornton, 2003a) and Risk Matrix 2000 (RM2000) (Thornton et al., 2003), were cross-validated and compared with Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 2000) in a retrospective follow-up study of 304 forensic psychiatrically evaluated sexual offenders (mean time-at-risk=14.8 years). All instruments predicted any sexual, non-sexual violent and any violent recidivism moderately for child molesters [area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC)=0.67 (95% CI=0.57–0.77) to 0.76 (95% CI=0.68–0.85)] but poorly for rapists [AUCs=0.64 (95% CI=0.51–0.70) to 0.68 (95% CI=0.59–0.77)]. The instruments also predicted severe sexual recidivism moderately for child molesters [AUCs=0.74 (95% CI=0.63–0.86) to 0.79 (95% CI=0.70–0.89)] but were of no value in informing on this outcome for rapists [AUCs=0.58 (95% CI=0.47–0.68) to 0.63 (95% CI=0.53–0.73)]. AUC estimates were generally higher for Static-2002 and RM2000 than for Static-99, but no single instrument demonstrated statistical superiority. The study provides support for implementing actuarial instruments in applied risk assessments of child molesters.     

How do psychiatric patients on prison healthcare centres differ from inpatients in secure psychiatric inpatient units?

Abstract

Mentally ill prisoners have consistently been highlighted as a group with complex needs. However, it is not clear what these needs are, how effective prison health services are in meeting the needs of this vulnerable group, and whether there would be any benefit to transferring them to psychiatric facilities. This study compared the characteristics and needs of mentally ill patients in prison healthcare centres (HCC prisoners) with patients in forensic medium secure psychiatric units (MSU inpatients) in the UK. HCC prisoners and MSU inpatients were in fact very similar. Where they did differ, though, was that MSU inpatients were significantly more likely to be of non-white ethnicity, diagnosed with psychotic or substance use disorders, and have recorded histories of drug misuse. HCC prisoners and MSU inpatients reported the same number of needs overall, according to the CANFOR-S (Camberwell Assessment of Need Forensic Short Version), but HCC prisoners reported significantly higher levels of unmet need. The need for transfer to alternative services was common in both groups, with bottlenecks evident at all levels. The high level of unmet need reported in the HCC prison sample is of particular clinical concern and highlights the need for improved assessment and treatment services in this setting.     

Dangerous decisions: the impact of first impressions of trustworthiness on the evaluation of legal evidence and defendant culpability

Abstract

There is little support for the long-standing assumption that judges and jurors can accurately assess credibility. According to Dangerous Decisions Theory (DDT; Porter & ten Brinke, Legal and Criminological Psychology, 14, 119–134, 2009), intuitive evaluations of trustworthiness based on the face may strongly bias the interpretation of subsequent information about a target. In a courtroom setting, the assessment of evidence provided by or concerning a defendant may be fundamentally flawed if its interpretation is influenced by an initial, spontaneous assessment of trustworthiness. In an empirical test of DDT, participants were presented with two vignettes describing major or minor crimes, accompanied by a photograph of the supposed defendant, previously rated as highly trustworthy or untrustworthy in appearance. Participants evaluated culpability following the presentation of evidence in each case. Participants required less evidence to arrive at a guilty verdict and were more confident in this decision for untrustworthy-appearing defendants. The current evidence supports DDT and has implications for legal decision-making practices.     

Adaptation of the Basic Empathy Scale among a Portuguese sample of incarcerated juvenile offenders

The main aim of the present study was to examine the psychometric properties of the Basic Empathy Scale (BES) and of its adapted short version among a forensic sample of incarcerated male juvenile offenders (N = 221). The Portuguese validations of the BES and its adapted short version demonstrated good psychometric properties, namely in terms of the two-factor structure, internal consistency, convergent validity, discriminant validity, and concurrent validity that generally justifies its use among this population. Statistically significant associations were found with callous–unemotional traits and social anxiety. Findings are discussed in terms of the use of the BES and its adapted short version with juvenile offenders.     

Static risk factors predict sexual misconduct among incarcerated female sexual offenders

Abstract

Although there has been a great deal of research conducted on sexual offenders in recent years, the vast majority of studies have focused on male perpetrators. Little is known about female sexual perpetrators, due primarily to the small number of offenders/offences and sociocultural factors. This study evaluated if there was an association between static risk factors [as delineated by the Static-99 and Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR)] and institutional sexual misconduct for incarcerated female sexual offenders. In addition to demographic information, total Static scores were obtained from a file review along with institutional conduct reports. The STATIC-99 and RRASOR scores from intake information significantly predicted sexual conduct reports in prison.     

Referrers' views of structured professional judgement risk assessment of sexual offenders: A qualitative study

Abstract

The Risk for Sexual Violence Protocol is a structured professional judgement (SPJ) tool that aids risk assessment of sexual violence. It is widely used internationally. The aim of this study was to explore the clinical practice of SPJ risk assessment and risk management through qualitative analysis of the accounts of users of these assessments. Questionnaires and semi-structured interviews were conducted with a sample of 31 criminal justice professionals in southeast Scotland. The participants' accounts were explored using the framework method. Five themes emerged from this analysis: informing risk management; confirming what was known and giving weight; understanding personality; treatment; and the usefulness and limitations of risk assessment. The participants reported that the assessments were influential with respect to risk management. The study revealed some important implications for service development. The authors suggest possible future use of the framework method in research investigating the risk assessment of sexual violence.     

Factorial analysis of risk matrix 2000 on an Italian sample of sexual offenders

ABSTRACT

In order to assess the internal structure of Risk Matrix 2000 in an Italian sample of 308 adult males convicted for sex abuse, a principal component analysis with Promax rotation was performed. The results identified a structure with three factors that explained 53.8% of the total variance: the first factor concerned items referred to the criminal career of the offender; the second factor concerned the age of onset in committing crimes; the third factor was more strictly related to the offenders' attitude towards the sex crime/s, and reflects the aggravating items of the S scale. These results allows us to have the first validated tool on an Italian sample for assessing the level of risk for recidivism.     

Working with sex offenders in a climate of public blame and anxiety: How to make defensible decisions for risk

Abstract

Work with sex offenders takes place in a climate of public blame and anxiety. This requires practitioners to adopt the highest standards of practice to ensure that defensible decisions are made. These are decisions that must withstand hindsight scrutiny in the light of a risk management failure. This paper reviews the key practice points that will assist practitioners in making defensible decisions, and the key challenges for practitioners in this challenging area of work.