中国非传统安全研究40年(1978-2017)：脉络、意义与图景

中国的非传统安全研究已成一门“显学”，且对相关研究、安全现实与安全政策产生了极大影响。中国40年(1978-2017年)的非传统安全研究整体上历经了酝酿与显现、阐释与呼吁、反思与深化、建构与拓展的过程；研究内容丰富且不断出新，逐步形成了较为稳定的研究类型；与国家决策的关系呈现“被忽视——边缘性——中心圈”的发展轨迹；研究驱动包括学理驱动、技术驱动、事件驱动、政策驱动和环境驱动；形成了涵盖组织机构、学生培养、知识传播、政策咨询和学术网络的制度化研究态势。在学术上具备了学派与学科的自觉，推动了安全思想的“范式转型”与“安全文明”的重塑，在政策上牵引着安全治理实践更加综合化与国际化。然而，中国非传统安全研究的理论体系还未形成，专业性、科学性、国际性不足，未来非传统安全研究需要在全球安全的研究格局、元问题与分析框架、理论体系与学派自觉、方法论与量化研究、议题深究与国际对话上有新的持续推进。     

北京青年发展状况调查报告

为推动北京青少年工作的创新发展,全面深入跟踪研究北京青少年的发展动态,对北京青年群体开展了大规模的青年发展状况调研活动。调查涉及个人需求、社会需求、"十二五"与青年等多个层面,个人需求涉及到知识文化诉求、高质量高层次的闲暇生活、择业取向;社会需求涉及到社会组织认可、政治民主评价、媒体导向、理想信仰、社会和谐、社会保障、择偶观等。根据调查数据及分析,文化需求成为青少年发展不可规避的主要问题,在"十二五"期间,对于作为时代先锐和中坚力量的青少年,应对其各种需求深入了解,并切实提出一些具有借鉴意义的政策措施。     

近代国人对郑成功形象的塑造与精神的传承——以报刊文献中的郑成功传记为中心

晚清以前，郑成功正面至多是以“遗民忠义”的“忠烈”形象受人景仰。19世纪末20世纪初，随着西方民族主义思潮的传人，革命者开始用近代民族国家的视角重新塑造和认识中国既往的历史。郑成功因其“排满驱荷开拓台湾”的历史功绩及极富传奇色彩的生平，尤被晚清革命者所看重。在后者的阐释下，作为“反清英雄”的代表人物之一，郑成功形象发生“近代转型”，既迎合了反清革命宣传的需要，又是重构民族历史的重要组成部分。民国成立后，郑成功的英雄形象融入了国人的历史记忆之中，因应时代的需求，一直成为激励国人奋发图强、救亡图存的精神资源。抗战胜利后，郑成功又被作为光复台湾的精神象征而受到国人的进一步推崇。     

策略人和策略决策模型:草原管理的智能体模拟分析

传统决策理论忽视了对人的策略性行为和策略决策的考察。本文通过对草原管理的智能体模拟分析,发展了策略人和策略决策新模型,并重点研究了策略人的四种典型策略决策:策略性投票、掩盖性、交易性和学习性策略决策。智能体模拟分析发现,在特定条件下,策略人的策略决策深刻影响个体的具体行动,并进而影响个体的行动结果(例,草原的可持续发展)。进而探讨了通过政策或制度安排来利用策略人的策略决策谋取预期政策或制度收益的可能性和其现实响应,并与策略人的四种典型策略决策相对应,依次讨论了策略约束性、保护性、诱导性以及学习性四种政策或制度安排。     

How foreign policy recommendations are put together: A computational model with empirical applications

This paper presents and applies empirically a computational model of the way in which bona fide high level foreign policy recommendations by U.S. policy makers are assembled. We begin by pointing out that policy making can be seen as the connection of certain strings of words to other strings. We then discuss how these connections constitute certain types of foreign policy making phenomena as such. To theorize about such connections, one first needs to specify essential features of these phenomena, and we do so for one phenomenon: bona fide recommendations. We next turn to a discussion of the theory that links together the categories by which these features are represented. That theory explains how certain strings of words are assembled into new proximate goals, missions, and tools. The theory can be modeled computationally using the programming language Scheme, and we next present that model. We conclude by presenting a run of the model, showing the close fit between actual and generated strings.     

隐性动态贫困的识别与治理——兼论反向国债作为扶贫济困新思路的可行性

“隐性动态贫困”的识别与治理是一个世界性难题,也是我国扶贫济困工作未来所面对的主要挑战。传统治理工具主要应对“绝对贫困状态-相对贫困状态”路径及存在可识别的贫困表征的相对贫困问题,较难对“非贫困状态-相对贫困状态”路径的相对贫困问题进行有效的识别与应对。以“隐性动态贫困”问题的有效识别与应对为目标,国家应推出反向国债作为一种新的扶贫济困的治理工具,以作为传统扶贫济困治理工具的补充,为相对贫困中的“隐性动态贫困”问题的识别与治理提供新思路。     

The Taliban: a new proxy for Iran in Afghanistan?

Abstract

Iran has pursued a highly contradictory policy towards Afghanistan. On the one hand, it became a significant beneficiary of the overthrow of the Taliban regime by the US-led military intervention in 2001 in Afghanistan. The new Afghan government established cordial ties with Iran, allowing it to expand its political, economic and cultural influence in the country. Yet Iran has also provided significant support to the Taliban in its campaign to violently upend the political, social and economic processes in the country. This article examines the underlying domestic and regional security dynamics that contribute to this contradictory behaviour. It offers an assessment of how tensions between the United States and the Islamic Republic, as well as Tehran’s growing threat perception following the rise of the Islamic State – Khorasan in 2014, impact on Iran’s policy towards the Taliban. The paper argues that Tehran views the Taliban as an instrument to disrupt the influence of other actors in Afghanistan. The instrumentalisation of the Taliban, however, is likely to be counterproductive for Iranian security in the long run as it contributes to Afghanistan’s instability and insecurity and undermines Iran’s own long-term interests.     

Migrant Workers or Working Women? Comparing Labour Supply Policies in Post-War Europe

ABSTRACT

Why did some European countries choose migrant labour to expand their labour force in the decades that followed World War II, while others opted for measures to expand female employment via welfare expansion? The paper argues that gender norms and the political strength of the left were important structuring factors in these choices. Female employment required a substantial expansion of state intervention (e.g. childcare; paid maternity leave). Meanwhile, migrant recruitment required minimal public investments, at least in the short term, and preserved traditional gender roles. Using the contrasting cases of Sweden and Switzerland, the article argues that the combination of a weak left (labour unions and social democratic parties) and conservative gender norms fostered the massive expansion of foreign labour and a late development of female labour force participation in Switzerland. In contrast, more progressive gender norms and a strong labour movement put an early end to guest worker programmes in Sweden, and paved the way for policies to promote female labour force participation.     

Social Policy by Other Means: Theorizing Unconventional Forms of Welfare Production

Abstract

The goal of this special issue is to highlight the importance of unconventional social policies, theorize their development in comparison with traditional welfare state accounts and outline a new research agenda. In this introduction to the special issue, the editors present the concept of social policy by other means as encompassing two kinds of unconventional social policy (from the point of view of mainstream comparative research): First, functional equivalents to formal systems of social protection and, second, non-state provision of benefits. The concept builds upon a sizeable, but fragmented literature in comparative welfare state research. While numerous examples demonstrate that social policy by other means is more pervasive in both OECD and non-OECD countries than often acknowledged, a brief survey of the top 20 articles in the field reveals that this fact is not sufficiently reflected in the academic literature. With reference to both existing studies and the contributions to this special issue, the editors go on to explore (1) the different forms of social policy by other means, (2) explanatory theories and (3) their effectiveness in terms of social outcomes. They close by outlining a research agenda.