Links,Mitte, Rechts: Worauf grã¼ndet die ideologische Selbstidentifikation der Schweizer und Schweizerinnen?

Die Links‐Rechts‐Selbsteinschã¤tzung wird in Stimmverhaltensstudien hã¤ufig als ein äusserst zuverlã¤ssiger Prã¤diktor des individuellen Entscheids ausgewiesen. Dabei ist jedoch keineswegs klar, wie sie auf den Urnenentscheid Einfluss nimmt. Ã?ber ihre Verhaltensrelevanz besitzen wir deshalb nur wenig gesichertes Wissen, da nach wie vor umstritten ist, worauf die ideologische Selbsteinstufung fusst. Ist sie ein Surrogat der Parteisympathie, wird sie aus grundlegenden gesellschaftspolitischen Ã?berzeugungen hergeleitet oder ist sie â‐“ zumindest teilweise â‐“ ein Datenartefakt? Die empirische Analyse zeigt, dass eine Unterscheidung zwischen Parteigebundenen und ‐ungebundenen sowie der Einbezug der intervenierenden Variablen der politischen Informiertheit nã¶tig ist, um den Determinanten der ideologischen Selbstidentifikation auf die Spur zu kommen. Dies ermã¶glicht die Differenzierung von vier Analysegruppen, fã¼r die unterschiedliche Aussagen Geltung haben.     

Arms Negotiation,War Exhaustion,and the Credibility of Preventive War

Why do some states agree to suspend their weapons programs in exchange for compensation while others fail to come to terms? I argue that the changing credibility of preventive war is an important determinant of arms construction. If preventive war is never an option, states can reach mutually preferable settlements. However, if preventive war is not credible today but will be credible in the future, a commitment problem results: the state considering investment faces a “window of opportunity” and must build the arms or it will not receive concessions later on. Thus, agreements fail under these conditions. I then apply the theoretical findings to the Soviet Union’s decision to build nuclear weapons in 1949. War exhaustion made preventive war not credible for the United States immediately following World War II, but lingering concerns about future preventive action induced Moscow to proliferate.     

凸齿钥匙上仿形刀痕迹倾斜角与齿坡角的关系初探

目的探索被增配凸形钥匙上仿形刀痕迹倾斜角度与齿坡角间的关系。方法用铝板制作相同坡长不同齿坡角的钥匙模型,在相同夹持方式下模拟增配过程,观察并总结钥匙上仿形刀痕迹倾斜角度的变化。结果不同齿坡角上仿形刀痕迹倾斜角度不同。结论凸齿钥匙上仿形刀增配痕迹倾斜角度随齿坡角的增大而减小。     

口蹄疫病毒单链抗体基因的构建及其推导蛋白三维结构的分子模拟

用口蹄疫病毒(FMDV)Asial/JS/China/2005株灭活抗原免疫家兔,从兔脾细胞中提取RNA作为模板,通过PCR及重叠PCR方法构建出FMDV的单链抗体基因.测序结果显示,序列中有重链可变区(VH)及轻链可变区(VL)基因,经Blast比较,发现VH、VL的相似性最高分别可达81.0%和93.0%,且在序列中有连接VH及VL的柔性接头(Gly_4Ser)_3.用EXPASY软件包预测了推导蛋白的特性.运用Swiss-pdb viewer软件的SWISS-Model处理器对构建的单链抗体基因推导的蛋白序列进行了三维结构的分子模拟.拉马钱德兰图证明,所模拟的单链抗体的三维结构较为合理.     

States' interests as limits to the power of finance: Regulatory reforms in early local government financialization in the US and UK

Through a comparison of typical and deviant cases, this study probes and refines the augmented power model which argues that the structural power of the financial industry fosters its instrumental power in influencing regulatory reforms under certain scope conditions. It shows the industry's success in influencing policymakers to authorize municipalities to use derivatives and thereby to financialize their debt management in the US (typical case). The failure of banks to acquire such a law in the UK (deviant case) reveals a hitherto little-noticed condition under which this power explanation collapses: states' fiscal and monetary constitution. We demonstrate that analyzing the operation of finance power requires a precise consideration of how states' fiscal and monetary constitution structures governments' responses to financial industry's regulatory preferences. Moreover, we conclude that synthesizing business power research with literature on the mutual dependence between states and finance helps to explain patterns of state financialization.     

群体性突发事件的机理研究

群体性突发事件的发生不是孤立事件,而是一系列时间相继发生的结果。借用美国海因里希的事故因果连锁分析模型和社会物理学的社会燃烧理论进行探讨分析,结论是：任何事件的产生都必须具备三个基本条件,一是燃烧材料,二是助燃剂,三是点火温度。三个基本条件缺一不可。在因果连锁模型中把社会环境不稳定状态视为“燃烧物质”,而信息熵视为“助燃剂”,群体性突发事件视为“点火温度”。明确每一个方面的机理机制,提出治理措施,才能把问题解决好。     

Modeling Temperature Variations Using Monte Carlo Simulation: Implications for Estimation of the Postmortem Interval Based on Insect Development Times*†

The association between insect development and temperature is well established. Thermal summation using accumulated degree-day measures is commonly used. However, the time at which evidence is collected is important in these estimates. The aim of this study was to provide a simulated model of the effect of temperatures on six dipteran species commonly associated with cadavers, from the death scene to the refrigerator, and finally at the time of autopsy. Temperatures measurements were sampled over a 16-month period from the external environment (external to the mortuary), within the mortuary refrigerator, and within the mortuary autopsy suite. Monte Carlo simulation using accumulated degree-days (ADD) was used to estimate the variations based on the mean and standard deviation of the temperature measurements. It was found that there was a negative correlation between the base temperature of the fly species (lowest temperature at which the flies will survive) and developmental likelihood. Species with high base temperatures (Chrysomya albiceps, Chrysomya chloropyga, and Musca domestica) were less likely to continue development in refrigerators than species with lower base temperatures (Lucilia sericata and Piophila casei). The findings of this study highlight the importance of recording temperature measurements and the period of refrigeration on PMI estimation especially when continued development occurs in spite of a period of cooling of the insect evidence.     

Political Brand Equity Model: The Integration of Political Brands in Voter Choice

The voters’ choices about political parties have many similarities with how they make their choices about commercial brands. Therefore, political parties are now constantly applying the concept and strategies of brand management to make the political product attractive, appealable, trustable, differentiable, a source of long-term relationships, and a decision-making driver. Furthermore, the political parties have to play an active role in the community's political socialization processes, which rely heavily on branding strategies. Because, the party equity is largely based on the community's social gregariousness that has profound effect on the electorates' propensity to participate in the politics. This study has deeply explored and broadened the concept of party equity analogous to commercial brand equity typology by developing a politics-specific brand equity model. This model demonstrates the integration of political brands in voter choice. Empirically, this model has been validated by collecting 550 valid responses from the constituency of District Gujrat, Pakistan. A careful analysis of these responses through structural equation modeling methodology has revealed that political parties vary according to the outcomes of their role in the political socialization process of the communities, loyalty, and voters’ attitude. Parties that have favorable role in the socialization process have strong party knowledge and thus have high party equity as compared to competing political parties, which have a weak position of party knowledge. Similarly, this study provides the roadmap and guidelines for the political parties to manage their party equity. Similarly, the model would be able to facilitate political parties in comparing different constituencies on the basis of their diversified social dynamics and political knowledge and in the development of a constituency-based manifesto, also termed “localized manifesto,” to further enhance their vote bank.     

Reaping What They Sow? Victim-Offender Overlap Perceptions and Victim Blaming Attitudes

Examining the tendency to attribute blame to crime victims reveals a striking dichotomy. Some types, such as children, elicit intense emotional reactions from the public. Alternatively, others, such as the typical victims of street crimes, garner substantially less concern. According to the “just world” hypothesis, these latter groups may be perceived by the public as criminally involved, and so “blameworthy” for their victimization. We test this hypothesis—specifically, we evaluate whether perceptions of the extent of victims’ involvement in crime are associated with dispositional attributions for victimization. Data from a recent national survey (N = 760) are analyzed. To extend generalizability, we replicate results with a college sample (N = 733). Findings indicate that victim-offender overlap perceptions vary consistently by crime type. There is also consistent evidence that perceiving a larger victim-offender overlap is associated with the view that the causes of criminal victimization are, in part, dispositional—and thus that crime victims hold personal responsibility.     

Re-measuring left–right: A comparison of SEM and Bayesian measurement models for extracting left–right party placements

This paper demonstrates the relative strengths and weaknesses of SEM and Bayesian approaches to combining different sources of data when estimating latent variables. Data on party left–right positioning collected from party manifestos and surveys of party experts, MPs and voters are used to illustrate the two techniques. Although widely used and accepted, the SEM approach is less useful than the Bayesian approach, particularly when using the latent variable in subsequent predictive estimations.