Re-measuring left–right: A comparison of SEM and Bayesian measurement models for extracting left–right party placements

This paper demonstrates the relative strengths and weaknesses of SEM and Bayesian approaches to combining different sources of data when estimating latent variables. Data on party left–right positioning collected from party manifestos and surveys of party experts, MPs and voters are used to illustrate the two techniques. Although widely used and accepted, the SEM approach is less useful than the Bayesian approach, particularly when using the latent variable in subsequent predictive estimations.     

Fundamental models for forecasting elections at the state level

This paper develops new fundamental models for forecasting presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial elections at the state level using fundamental data. Despite the fact that our models can be used to make forecasts of elections earlier than existing models and they do not use data from polls on voting intentions, our models have lower out-of-sample forecasting errors than existing models. Our models also provide early and accurate probabilities of victory. We obtain this accuracy by constructing new methods of incorporating various economic and political indicators into forecasting models. We also obtain new results about the relative importance of approval ratings, economic indicators, and midterm effects in the different types of races, how economic data can be most meaningfully incorporated in forecasting models, the effects of different types of candidate experience on election outcomes, and that second quarter data is as predictive of election outcomes as third quarter data.     

志愿服务与青年发展:因果机制与推进措施

青年发展是社会发展的重要面向,志愿服务是公民社会健康状况的晴雨表。青年志愿服务从培养公民意识、促进公共参与、提升人际关系能力与职业适应性、促进就业以及预防反社会行为等方面有力地促进了青年发展。因此,政府应通过完善志愿服务立法,扶持和培育志愿组织,引入服务学习课程以及鼓励家庭志愿服务等措施推展青年志愿服务,促进青年发展。     

Threats at Home,Threats Abroad: Bargaining and War in the Shadow of Coups and Revolutions

I analyze a two-level game in which a leader bargains over the spoils of international bargaining with a domestic opposition that can threaten her with a coup or revolution. While fighting an international war shrinks the domestic pie, it also alters the distribution of domestic power. This has three main implications. First, if war will undermine the opposition, fighting may be so attractive that leaders demand more for peace than foreign states are willing to give, leading to war. Second, if war will bolster the opposition, leaders accept harsh terms to avoid fighting—strategic selection that has implications for the observed relationship between war and political survival. Finally, prospective shifts in the distribution of domestic power caused by war can reduce the effects of international asymmetric information, though the result may be to increase or decrease the chances of war.     

Observations Regarding Key Operational Realities in a Compstat Model of Policing

With nearly 4 million adults under supervision in the US, probationers make up the largest group of offenders under the supervision of the criminal justice system. Yet the sanction of probation has received relatively little study. Because probation is generally a local endeavor, coordinated data collection is rare. In this article, the changing dynamics of felony probation populations in California over two decades are examined using dynamic systems simulation modeling. In addition to demonstrating the utility of this underused modeling technique, the legal and social sources of changes in the use of felony probation in California’s criminal justice system are discussed, as are the practical and policy implications of these changes.     

Effects of university characteristics on scientists’ interactions with the private sector: an exploratory assessment

This paper estimates the effect of select university characteristics on the propensity of individual scientists to interact with private sector companies. The academic prestige of an institution has a direct negative effect on scientists’ interactions with the private sector, while the level of industrial R&D expenditures has a direct positive effect on such interactions. Institutional characteristics also moderate the effect of some individual-level variables such as tenure status, grant activity, involvement with students and disciplinary effects.      

Three-Dimensional Integrated Survey for Building Investigations

The study shows the results of a survey aimed to represent a building collapse and the feasibility of the modellation as a support of structure analysis. An integrated survey using topographic, photogrammetric, and terrestrial laser techniques was carried out to obtain a three-dimensional (3D) model of the building, plans and prospects, and the particulars of the collapsed area. Authors acquired, by a photogrammetric survey, information about regular parties of the structure; while using laser scanner data they reconstructed a set of more interesting architectural details and areas with higher surface curvature. Specifically, the process of texture provided a detailed 3D structure of the areas under investigation. The analysis of the data acquired resulted to be very useful both in identifying the causes of the disaster and also in helping the reconstruction of the collapsed corner showing the contribution that the integrated surveys can give in preserving architectural and historic heritage.     

Correlation Between Average Tissue Depth Data and Quantitative Accuracy of Forensic Craniofacial Reconstructions Measured by Geometric Surface Comparison Method

Accuracy is the most important factor supporting the reliability of forensic facial reconstruction (FFR) comparing to the corresponding actual face. A number of methods have been employed to evaluate objective accuracy of FFR. Recently, it has been attempted that the degree of resemblance between computer‐generated FFR and actual face is measured by geometric surface comparison method. In this study, three FFRs were produced employing live adult Korean subjects and three‐dimensional computerized modeling software. The deviations of the facial surfaces between the FFR and the head scan CT of the corresponding subject were analyzed in reverse modeling software. The results were compared with those from a previous study which applied the same methodology as this study except average facial soft tissue depth dataset. Three FFRs of this study that applied updated dataset demonstrated lesser deviation errors between the facial surfaces of the FFR and corresponding subject than those from the previous study. The results proposed that appropriate average tissue depth data are important to increase quantitative accuracy of FFR.     

Regions of Hierarchy and Security: US Troop Deployments,Spatial Relations,and Defense Burdens

Recent work has begun exploring the effects of foreign military deployments on host-state foreign policies. However, research mostly focuses on dyadic relationships between major powers and host-states, ignoring the broader regional security environment of host-states. We develop a theory of spatial hierarchies to understand how security relationships throughout the region surrounding the host-state affect host-state foreign policy. Using data on US military deployments from 1950–2005, we show that regional security considerations condition how host-states respond to the deployment of military forces to their territory. Consequently, regional analyses are fundamental in understanding monadic and dyadic decisions about security, alliance behavior, and conflict.     

从素质教育视角析公安院校的数学教学

素质教育是指以提高受教育者综合素质为目标的教育模式。自从素质教育政策提出以来,我国数学教育进行了改革,注重培养学生的数学思维和应用数学知识解决实际问题的能力,以提高学生的数学素质。公安院校作为高等院校重要组成部分,其数学教育既体现数学教育的共性,也有自身的个性。提高公安院校学生的数学素质是重要的也是必要的,这将有利于提高公安人才素质和公安队伍解决问题的能力。