Party Size and Portfolio Payoffs: The Proportional Allocation of Ministerial Posts in Coalition Governments

Over 30 years ago, Eric Browne and Mark Franklin demonstrated that parties in a coalition tend to receive portfolio payoffs in almost perfect proportionality to their seat share. Even though this result has been confirmed in several studies, few researchers have asked what the underlying mechanism is that explains why parties receive a proportional payoff. The aim of this paper is to investigate the causal mechanism linking party size and portfolio payoffs. To fulfil this aim, a small-n analysis is performed. By analysing the predictions from a statistical analysis of all post-war coalition governments in 14 Western European countries, two predicted cases are selected, the coalitions that formed after the 1976 Swedish election and the 1994 German election. In these case studies two hypotheses are evaluated: that the proportional distribution of ministerial posts is the result of a social norm, and that parties obtain payoffs according to their bargaining strength. The results give no support to the social norm hypothesis. Instead, it is suggested that proportionality serves as a bargaining convention for the actors involved, thus rendering proportional payoffs more likely.     

Structural Models of Voter Behavior in the 2000 Polish Presidential Election

Abstract

The data of the 2000 Polish presidential election have been analyzed according to Newman and Sheth's model of voter's choice behavior (1985). Although this model was originally interpreted within the statistical perspective of discriminant analysis, it could be also extended within the framework of structural equation methodology. Namely, if the seven cognitive domains (Issues and Policies, Emotional Feelings, Candidate Image, Current Events, Epistemic Issues, Social Imagery and Epistemic Issues) are assumed to be distinct and separate, they can be treated as independent (predictive) variables with the voter's intention as a dependent or predicted variable. The three models were tested and the resuits of path analysis show the complex pattern of mutual interdependence between the cognitive domains and voter behavior. The specificity of the cause-effect relationship obtained by the structural equation methodology presented in the paper allows us to put forward some practical suggestions regarding the way electoral campaigns should be conducted.     

Models of Voter Behavior in Traditional and Evolving Democracies

ABSTRACT

The data of Polish, Slovenian, and U.S. political elections have been analyzed according to Newman's model of voter's choice behavior (Newman & Sheth 1985; Newman 1999). The results of the research were interpreted with the methodology of structural equations, where cognitive domains, the media, and the emotional feelings toward the candidates were variables in mutual cause-and-effect relationships. The results of the analyses demonstrated the differences in the importance of the media for the election process. In established democracies like in the U.S. the media play an important role as independent means of delivering information, while in evolving democracies media are not independent and are oftentimes used by the competing political sides as an element in electoral battles. The article also presents proposals for studying voter behaviors within constructivist and realistic paradigms as well as some suggestions for marketing practice.     

应设立故意传播艾滋病罪

故意传播艾滋病的行为,既不构成传播性病罪,也不构成故意伤害罪;表面上,这种行为符合故意杀人罪的犯罪构成,但事实上,定故意杀人罪存在一些问题,比如,因果关系难以证明、既遂、未遂难以确定等。我国应该借鉴美国等一些国家和地区的做法,设立故意传播艾滋病罪。     

Probabilistic forecasting of political events

Political conflicts are modeled as Markovian processes where the states are the possible outcomes and the forecast is the steady‐state probability of each outcome. The input variables are the power of the actors, the salience of the issue to the actors and the desirability of each possible outcome to the actors.

The modeling flexibility of the proposed method is verified by its application to twenty‐eight actual conflicts that include economic and political issues resolved on national and international settings. The predictive capability of the method is established by close agreement between probability intervals of the forecasts and the actual outcomes.     

Evaluating Simulant Materials for Understanding Cranial Backspatter from a Ballistic Projectile

In cranial wounds resulting from a gunshot, the study of backspatter patterns can provide information about the actual incidents by linking material to surrounding objects. This study investigates the physics of backspatter from a high‐speed projectile impact and evaluates a range of simulant materials using impact tests. Next, we evaluate a mesh‐free method called smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) to model the splashing mechanism during backspatter. The study has shown that a projectile impact causes fragmentation at the impact site, while transferring momentum to fragmented particles. The particles travel along the path of least resistance, leading to partial material movement in the reverse direction of the projectile motion causing backspatter. Medium‐density fiberboard is a better simulant for a human skull than polycarbonate, and lorica leather is a better simulant for a human skin than natural rubber. SPH is an effective numerical method for modeling the high‐speed impact fracture and fragmentations.     

结果加重犯之构成要件探析

结果加重犯历来都是刑法学研究中的一个重点、难点问题,尤其是结果加重犯相对于普通犯罪行为(即结果加重犯中所称的基本犯)而言,具有较为特殊的构成要件特征,由此使得结果加重犯成为在刑法范畴中情况比较复杂的犯罪形态。因此从分析结果加重犯的构成要件入手,揭示出结果加重犯与基本犯构成方面的异同,能够有助于更好地理解结果加重犯这一特殊的犯罪形态。     

论环境污染侵权诉讼中的证明责任

环境污染是一种特殊侵权行为,有其区别于一般侵权行为的特征.如何合理分配证明责任是解决环境污染案件的要点与难点.论述受害人具有初步的证明责任,重点论证对此类案件应实行因果关系推定原则和无过错责任原则,阐明加害人对免责事由的证明责任以及受害人与加害人证明责任之间的关系.     

行为理论之反思与选择——以大陆法系“阶层”的犯罪论体系为视角

基于行为是犯罪存在的基本形式，有必要对行为理论存在的必要性和重要性予以确定，并在对诸行为理论了解、分析的基础上，选择适当的行为理论贯彻到犯罪成立理论当中。     

CONCENTRATED DISADVANTAGE,TRADITIONAL MALE ROLE MODELS,AND AFRICAN‐AMERICAN JUVENILE VIOLENCE*

In a stagnating urban economy, Elijah Anderson's (1999) Code of the Street depicts a disadvantaged environment where residents face high levels of joblessness, poverty, racial residential isolation, and family disruption. Anderson argues that the loss of job opportunities for African‐American men deprived younger generations of traditional male role models. That is, in a disadvantaged urban setting with a lack of male role models participating in legitimate labor market activity, many young people may turn to violence. Drawing on insights from Anderson's ethnographic work, we assess the generality of Anderson's claims more broadly and explore the potential connection between his work and the macrolevel research on urban violence. Specifically, we explore the influence of male role models (older, employed black males) and the concentration of urban disadvantage on black juvenile arrests for violence across multiple cities in 2000. Overall, we find empirical support for Anderson's concerns over the removal of traditional male role models from urban areas as a result of concentrated disadvantage. Specifically, we find that the presence of traditional male role models reduces the rates of African‐American youth violence. Additionally, our measure of traditional male role models mediates the relationship between structural disadvantage and juvenile violence. We discuss the contributions of Anderson's work to the macrolevel study of urban violence.