我国公共政策失灵问题研究综述

政策失灵是世界各国共有的现象。我国学界主要从理论和实践两个方面分析了政策失灵的内涵、类型、成因、对策等,不断加深对政策失灵问题的认识。但目前政策失灵研究还存在基本概念界定不清、理论创新不足、视角较为狭窄、研究深度不够等问题。深化政策失灵研究,需要在学理上对其内涵进行清晰界定,构建政策失灵的分析模型;将政策失灵与政策过程相结合,将思辨分析与实证分析相结合,分析政策失灵的具体表现、内在机理、应对思路,增强政策失灵分析的中国特色和理论创新。     

Public administration reform for Aboriginal affairs: An institutionalist analysis

Persistent underperformance of public policy and program implementation in Aboriginal affairs is widely recognised. We analysed the results of two case studies of attempted reforms in public administration of Aboriginal primary health care in the Northern Territory, using a framework based on the institutionalist and systemic racism literatures, with the aim of better understanding the sources of implementation failure. Implementation of the agreed reforms was unsuccessful. Contributing factors were as follows: strong recognition of the need for change was not sustained; the seeds of change, present in the form of alternative practices, were not built on; there was a notable absence of sustained political/bureaucratic authorisation; and, interacting with all of these, systemic racism had important consequences and implications. Our framework was useful for making sense of the results. It is clear that reforms in Aboriginal affairs will require government authorities to engage with organisations and communities. We conclude that there are four requirements for improved implementation success: clear recognition of the need for change in ‘business as usual’; sustainable commitment and authorisation; the building of alternative structures and methods to enable effective power sharing (consistent with the requirements of parliamentary democracy); and addressing the impact of systemic racism on decision-making, relationships, and risk management.     

State Capacity,Regime Type,and Sustaining the Peace after Civil War

About half of the nations that experience civil war eventually relapse into renewed conflict within a few years after the original war ends. This observation has motivated a stream of research into the factors that affect the risk of peace failure in the aftermath of civil war. While the outcome of the previous civil war—for example, military victory versus peace agreement—structures the post-war environment in ways that affect the risk of peace failure, the capacity of the post-war state to enact and implement policies that affect the incentives for and capacity of groups to undertake armed violence as a means of advancing their interests should also affect the risks of peace failure. Using Geddes’ categories of nondemocratic regime types, we will present a theory of how different regime types have varying capacities to repress and/or implement accommodative policies that affect the risk of peace failure. We test propositions derived from this theory with a series of event history models. Our findings suggest that while peace agreements significantly increase the duration of post-civil war peace, peace agreements involving some types of nondemocratic regimes actually increase the risk of post-civil war peace failure.     

萆菟汤治疗慢性非细菌性前列腺炎110例

目的 观察萆菟汤治疗慢性非细菌性前列腺炎(chronic abacterial prostatitis,CAP)的临床疗效。方法 将176例CAP患者随机分为治疗组110例和对照组66例,分别采用萆菟汤和前列康片治疗,疗程均为8周。观察并比较两组临床疗效,治疗前后分别观察两组NIH- CPSI评分,并进行挤压前列腺分泌液（expressed prostatic secretion,EPS）常规检查。结果 治疗组临床疗效明显优于对照组（P<0.05）。与治疗前比较,两组治疗后NIH- CPSI的疼痛症状、排尿症状、生活质量评分和总分均显著降低（P<0.05）,治疗组上述评分降低值显著大于对照组（P<0.05）。与治疗前比较,两组治疗后EPS中白细胞计数及pH值均显著降低（P<0.05）,卵磷脂小体计数均显著升高（P<0.05）;治疗组治疗后白细胞计数降低值小于对照组（P<0.05）,卵磷脂小体升高值和pH值降低值大于对照组（P＜0.05）。结论 萆菟汤对CAP具有显著的临床疗效。     

藿苏养胃口服液治疗慢性萎缩性胃炎临床观察

目的评价藿苏养胃口服液治疗慢性萎缩性胃炎(chronic atrophic gastritis,CAG)的临床疗效。方法将200例CAG患者随机分为对照组和治疗组,每组100例,对照组给予胃复春片治疗,治疗组给予藿苏养胃口服液治疗,每组疗程3个月,随访2周。治疗后观察两组中医临床综合疗效、单个症状疗效、胃镜下黏膜病变疗效、两组胃腺体萎缩疗效和胃黏膜肠上皮化生疗效,治疗前后分别观察两组的组织病理学积分及患者报告结局指标(patient reported outcome,PRO)量表积分。结果治疗组中医临床综合疗效、胃镜下黏膜病变疗效、胃腺体萎缩疗效和胃黏膜肠上皮化生疗效均显著优于对照组(P0.05);在胃脘胀满、胃脘隐痛、嗳气、纳弱不振、胃中嘈杂、口干口苦、短气懒言及神疲乏力疗效方面,治疗组明显优于对照组(P0.05);在降低中医症状积分、病理组织学积分以及降低PRO量表的总分及其全身症状、反流、消化不良、心理功能和社会功能维度积分方面,治疗组明显优于对照组(P0.05)。结论藿苏养胃口服液能明显改善CAG患者的临床症状,有效修复胃镜下黏膜病变,改善胃黏膜的病理组织病变,提高CAG患者的生活质量。     

论刑事司法鉴定制度的基本原则——以刑事诉讼法的修改为视角

刑事司法鉴定制度的基本原则有丰富的内容，既包括刑事诉讼法的基本原则，也包括证据法的原则，还包括鉴定制度所特有的原则。其中，无论是刑事诉讼法中的基本原则还是证据法的原则，在鉴定问题上又都有其特殊的要求。本文以刑事诉讼法的修改为视角，从解决刑事司法鉴定程序失灵等疑难问题出发，选取其中不可替代的三个原则，即权利保障原则、程序...     

Survival analysis: A survey

This paper is a survey of statistical methods used to analyze the length of time until a specified event occurs. These models have often been used to analyze the survival times (i.e., time until death) of medical patients, and so the term survival analysis is natural. In criminology, the main application of these models has been to analyze the time until recidivism, but many other applications are possible. The paper summarizes the statistical literature on survival analysis, and describes its applications in criminology. The methods are illustrated by an application to the prediction of time until recidivism for a sample of North Carolina prison releasees.     

A survival model with dependent competing events and right-hand censoring: Probation and parole as an illustration

Researchers are frequently interested in estimating the elapsed time until the occurrence of an event, such as an arrest following release from prison, dissolution of a marriage, and death following the onset of a disease. Estimation is often hindered by the occurrence of a competing event, which prevents the event of interest from being observed, and by limited follow-up periods. A parametric procedure developed in this paper is suitable for dealing with nonrepeatable competing events when the events are correlated and when independent righthand censoring also exists. Weak distributional assumptions are accommodated by using a Box-Cox transformation and by explicit modeling of heteroscedasticity. The procedure is applied to data pertaining to failure on probabation and parole.     

Intractable Policy Failure: The Case of Bovine TB and Badgers

The failure to eliminate bovine TB from the English and Welsh cattle herd represents a long-term intractable policy failure. Cattle-to-cattle transmission of the disease has been underemphasised in the debate compared with transmission from badgers despite a contested evidence base. Archival evidence shows that mythical constructions of the badger have shaped the policy debate. Relevant evidence was incomplete and contested; alternative framings of the policy problem were polarised and difficult to reconcile; and this rendered normal techniques of stakeholder management through co-option and mediation of little assistance.     

管制经济学“双失灵”难题的法经济学解答

“双失灵”是对西方管制经济学中市场调节——市场失灵——政府管制——政府失灵——市场调节这一理论形成过程的概括。然而这一理论思路却存在循环论证的逻辑错误，并且使经济学理论和实践陷入对市场和政府的两难选择。针对经济学分析方法的不足，可用法经济学分析的方法和理论，为“双失灵”难题的解决找到答案，即以法律规制解答市场经济条件下市场与政府的关系问题。