Quantitative criminology in The Netherlands

This article briefly describes quantitative criminology in The Netherlands since the seventies. Dutch quantitative criminologists have been active in most fields of the discipline of criminology: research has been done on the etiology of crime and, in relation to this, the self-report methodology. A number of victimization surveys have been executed, and in relation to this, attention was given to fear of crime, victims in the judicial system, and situational approaches to crime. There has been research on policy evaluation, sentencing, and differential treatment in the criminal justice system, and alternative sanctions. Recently three major international studies have been coordinated by Dutch criminologists: an international self-report study, an international victim survey of households, and an international survey of victimization among businesses. In this article we describe the first two studies and briefly compare some of their features. Overall, it appears that Dutch quantitative criminology is embedded in the international mainstream of criminology and, in general, has been strongly related to policy concerns.     

Cost-benefit Analysis of Infrastructure Projects in an Enlarged European Union: Returns and Incentives

We consider results of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) in a large sample of ISPA (Structural Instrument for Pre-Accession countries) projects co-financed by the European Union to support investment in transport and environment. The research focus is on the empirical analysis of the variability of financial and economic rates of return and how to integrate this information in the EU co-financing mechanism. We investigate to what extent the variability of expected returns and of EU co-financing rates is due to structural project characteristics (sectors, countries) or to other unexplained factors, including errors in the appraisal. We find that while the absolute level of grants is related to sectors, the EU co-financing rate depends on countries. There is no justification in economic analysis of such a country bias, because the variability of economic rate of returns is unrelated either to sector or country factors. These findings points to the need of a more consistent approach to evaluation and EU co-financing of infrastructure supported by the EU funds. We suggest possible improvements, based on the idea to offer an incentive to projects with high-expected economic␣rates of return relative to a benchmark and showing ex-post the realism of the initial analysis.      

中国封建社会秘密侦查史略考

中国封建社会的秘密侦查与奴隶社会相比发生了重大的变化,这主要表现在三个方面:建立了专门的秘密侦查组织;秘密侦查的策略与方法得到了较快的发展;秘密侦查的理论研究日趋成熟。之所以如此,这是由当时阶级矛盾的日益尖锐,刑事犯罪日趋严重和复杂,并呈现出集团化趋势,以及纠问式刑事诉讼模式的确立等因素所决定的。     

浅析优等悬赏广告评定行为的理论构成

优等悬赏广告的评定行为在性质上是准法律行为中的观念通知.由第三人为评定行为而出现评定障碍时,应募人应向广告人为评定之催告.评定人可以是限制行为能力人.优等评定结果只要无例外约定,原则上可以空缺,但不能并列.如果并列,每一优等者均享有全额奖金的请求权.应募人对评定结果有权提出异议,可以主张无效或可撤销.广告人怠于撤销或拒不撤销时,应募人可以代位行使撤销权.     

略论中学英语课改中的评价策略

本文分析了中学英语课程传统评价体系的弊端以及实施学业评价改革的重要性与必然性,提出进行新课程评价改革的理论依据,即人本主义心理学和多元智能理论。论述了如何构建科学的评价体系,并提供了评价范示,即评价的发展性功能;评价内容的多元化;评价主体的多元化;评价过程的动态化;评价方法的多元化。强调建立多元多维的评价观,使评价成为促进每个学生充分发展的有效手段。     

关于行政评价法制度的研究

建立行政评价法制度是当代西方国家行政法发展的新趋势。行政评价法的概念在各国政府绩效管理的实践中逐步明确化。行政评价法制度以公共利益为价值取向,根据公众满意程度评价行政绩效,具有公共性的基本内涵;程序性是行政评价法的根本属性。在我国导入行政评价法,对于实现政府行政决策科学化,使财政得到充分有效利用,提高行政效率以及遏制腐败等方面具有重大现实意义。行政评价法制度应以效率、成果概念为核心,注重效率与质量、效率与程序的平衡;行政公开是行政评价的本质要求和显著特征,行政评价能够推动公开的深化,促使政府主动公开信息;行政服务向民营化转变是行政评价法制度的目标之一;行政评价法制度的宗旨是实现人民群众广泛参与。     

Self-Control and Crime/Deviance: Cognitive vs. Behavioral Measures

Using survey data, various measures of self-control, based respectively on cognitive and behavioral indicators, are compared in their ability to predict eight measures of crime/deviance. The results show that either type of measure produces supportive evidence for the theory, and the behavioral measures provide no better prediction than do the cognitive measures. Unlike cognitive type indicators, and contrary to the implications of the theory, different types of crime-analogous, imprudent behaviors are not highly interrelated, making it difficult to develop reliable behavioral measures. These results suggest that general support for self-control theory would likely not be any greater if all researchers had used behaviorally based measures, as recommended by the authors of the theory. Improving the level of prediction to the point where self-control could claim to be the master variable, as envisioned by its proponents, does not seem to rest on a shift to behaviorally based measures. Instead, improvements in the theory itself, particularly the incorporation of contingencies, appears to offer more promise.     

Evaluating the impact of IMF programs: A comparison of matching and instrumental-variable estimators

We examine the impact of IMF programs on economic performance in 95 developing countries over the period 1993–2002. Three macroeconomic measures of economic performance are considered: the real per capita economic growth rate, the ratio of the fiscal surplus to GDP, and the ratio of the current account surplus to GDP. Three estimation techniques are used: censored-sample, full-sample instrumental-variable, and matching. Substantively, we find little statistical support that IMF programs contemporaneously improve real economic growth in participating countries, but stronger evidence of an improvement in economic growth in years following a program. We find that both the fiscal ratio and the current-account ratio improve contemporaneously with IMF participation relative to the counterfactual, with effects in succeeding years differing little from the impact effects. We conclude that the program-effect estimates of matching and other estimators will differ largely because of the sample included in estimation. Matching by its nature excludes country episodes associated with extreme values of the propensity score, while the instrumental-variable estimator includes those. If there is heterogeneity of performance response in extreme vs. moderate cases, the estimates differ systematically between the two techniques. JEL codes F33 · F34 · C34     

关于民事诉讼中司法鉴定的运用

从案件审理者的角度看,司法鉴定是其加以运用从而认定事实的一个手段,但现存的规范多是纯粹程序上的规定,对鉴定具体环节中法官的行为殊有约束,导致了法官在运用司法鉴定中行为的随意,表现为滥用司法鉴定、浪费司法资源、造成瑕疵鉴定结论、对当事人及鉴定人权利保障不充分、鉴定结论审查标准不一等问题,因此有必要从原则上和具体规范上对法官运用司法鉴定的这些诉讼行为引起的问题加以解决,司法鉴定制度也只有关注这些问题才可能更加完善。