对落后国家社会主义制度建设的思考

原苏联等社会主义国家是在还不具备马克思恩格斯所设想的理想的条件下进行社会主义制度建设的,这就出现了一种极为特殊的社会主义体制,我们可以称之为落后 理想体制。这一体制有其内在的矛盾性。邓小平在总结这一体制特征的基础上,结合中国实际形成了他的社会主义本质论。     

Rap sheets in criminological research: Considerations and caveats

The types of errors found in official criminal history records are not completely understood by many researchers, and this lack of understanding can lead to serious misinterpretations. Analyses of a recently developed database of New Orleans offenders indicate that the use of rap sheets with a limited catchment area can lead to gross distortions of the effects of variables related to geographic mobility, such as race and age. Evidence from a number of sources indicates that false-negative error is a serious problem, particularly in fingerprint-based record systems. In addition, arrest records lend themselves to a variety of common misinterpretations by researchers in the coding process, including failing to identify multievent arrests, misclassifying arrests, and treating arrest or custody process events as crimes indicating criminal activity of the individual while free. Solutions to some of these problems are suggested.     

Aggregation effects on male-to-female arrest rate ratios in New York State, 1972 to 1984

The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of data aggregation on a specification of the relationship between sex and arrest rate trends. The analysis focuses on the empirical implications when arrest data are aggregated across dimensions that are likely to affect the sex-crime relationship. The data for the analysis consist of 4,119,358 male and female adult arrests in New York State for the 13-year period ending in 1984. Results indicate that race, regional differences, and the legal seriousness of the arrest charge produce significantly different patterns of sex convergence across time. On the basis of these results, we suggest serious limitations in past analyses of female crime rates and in the value of Uniform Crime Report (UCR) data for addressing theoretically relevant questions concerning the social correlates of official crime.     

RACIAL THREAT,CONCENTRATED DISADVANTAGE AND SOCIAL CONTROL: CONSIDERING THE MACRO‐LEVEL SOURCES OF VARIATION IN ARRESTS*

Several studies have examined the relationship between racial threat (measured by the size of black population) and social control imposed on blacks, but evidence of this hypothesis has been mixed. Although dependency on percent black as the main indicator of racial threat in many studies has contributed to the inconsistency in findings, we argue that this literature has also neglected to consider other important conceptual and methodological issues. Using 2000 census and arrest data, we estimate the impact of multiple measures of racial economic threat, such as the size of the black population, racial inequality and black immigration patterns on black arrest rates. Furthermore, by integrating racial competition and race‐relations arguments, we examine how the concentration of black disadvantage may temper the extent to which blacks pose a threat to white interests. Our findings reveal important and conceptually distinct relationships between racial threat, concentrated disadvantage and the use of social control against blacks, particularly when compared to white arrests.     

POLICE INTERVENTION AND THE REPEAT OF DOMESTIC ASSAULT

We use the National Crime Victimization Survey to examine whether domestic violence is less likely to be repeated if it is reported to the police and if the offender is arrested. Our longitudinal analyses suggest that reporting has a fairly strong deterrent effect, whereas the effect of arrest is small and statistically insignificant. We find no support for the hypothesis that offenders retaliate when victims (rather than third parties) call the police or when victims sign complaints. We also find no evidence that the effects of reporting or arrest depend on the seriousness of the offense, a history of violence by the offender or sociodemographic characteristics. Our results suggest that the best policies for deterrence will be those that encourage victims and third parties to report violence by intimate partners to the police.     

Examining the Consequences of the “Prevalent Life Events” of Arrest and Incarceration among an Urban African-American Cohort

The life course perspective has traditionally examined prevalent adult life events, such as marriage and employment, and their potential to redirect offending trajectories. However, for African-Americans, the life events of arrest and incarceration are becoming equally prevalent in young adulthood. Therefore, it is critical to understand how these “standard” criminal justice practices, which are designed to deter as well as punish, affect deviance among this population. This study evaluates the long-term consequences of criminal justice intervention on substance use and offending into midlife among an African-American community cohort using propensity score matching and multivariate regression analyses. The results largely point to a criminogenic effect of criminal justice intervention on midlife deviance with a particularly strong effect of young adult arrest on rates of violent and property arrest counts into midlife. The theoretical and policy implications of the findings are discussed.     

How to Cautiously Uncover the “Black Box” of Machine Learning Models for Legislative Scholars

Machine learning models, especially ensemble and tree-based approaches, offer great promise to legislative scholars. However, they are heavily underutilized outside of narrow applications to text and networks. We believe this is because they are difficult to interpret: while the models are extremely flexible, they have been criticized as “black box” techniques due to their difficulty in visualizing the effect of predictors on the outcome of interest. In order to make these models more useful for legislative scholars, we introduce a framework integrating machine learning models with traditional parametric approaches. We then review three interpretative plotting strategies that scholars can use to bring a substantive interpretation to their machine learning models. For each, we explain the plotting strategy, when to use it, and how to interpret it. We then put these plots in action by revisiting two recent articles from Legislative Studies Quarterly.     

因果关系错误问题及其应对——以行为危险现实化说的再阐释为中心

因果关系错误,是为了解决在因果关系上认定过宽,让行为人对一些罕见的偶然结果也要承担既遂责任的问题而提出的概念,是试图将在客观违法阶段难以解决的问题转移至主观责任阶段加以解决的尝试。但这种尝试不仅无法解决具体问题,还会加重责任阶层判断的负担,导致违法阶层判断与责任阶层判断失衡。因此,在客观层面处理因果关系错误问题成为学说主流,其中,行为危险现实化说应当成为首选方案。只是,当前对行为危险现实化说的理解带有较浓厚的相当因果关系论色彩。行为危险现实化说强调因果关系的客观性,认为在有无因果关系的判断上,没有必要以内容模糊的规范性因素即“异常性”作为判断依据,而只要以科学鉴定所确认的行为对现实结果发生的贡献度或者参与度为根据,判断现实结果能否评价为行为危险的现实化即可。     

THE EDGE OF STIGMA: AN EXPERIMENTAL AUDIT OF THE EFFECTS OF LOW‐LEVEL CRIMINAL RECORDS ON EMPLOYMENT

Ample experimental evidence shows that the stigma of a prison record reduces employment opportunities (Pager, 2007). Yet background checks today uncover a much broader range of impropriety, including arrests for minor crimes never resulting in formal charges. This article probes the lesser boundaries of stigma, asking whether and how employers consider low‐level arrests in hiring decisions. Matched pairs of young African American and White men were sent to apply for 300 entry‐level jobs, with one member of each pair reporting a disorderly conduct arrest that did not lead to conviction. We find a modest but nontrivial effect, with employer callback rates about 4 percentage points lower for the experimental group than for the matched control group. Interviews with the audited employers suggest three mechanisms to account for the lesser stigma of misdemeanor arrests relative to felony convictions: 1) greater employer discretion and authority in the former case; 2) calibration of the severity, nature, and timing of the offense; and 3) a deeply held presumption of innocence, which contrasts the uncertainty of arrest with the greater certainty represented by convictions. In addition, personal contact and workplace diversity play important roles in the hiring process.     

LABELING EFFECTS OF FIRST JUVENILE ARRESTS: SECONDARY DEVIANCE AND SECONDARY SANCTIONING

A growing literature suggests that juvenile arrests perpetuate offending and increase the likelihood of future arrests. The effect on subsequent arrests is generally regarded as a product of the perpetuation of criminal offending. However, increased rearrest also may reflect differential law enforcement behavior. Using longitudinal data from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods (PHDCN) together with official arrest records, the current study estimates the effects of first arrests on both reoffending and rearrest. Propensity score methods were used to control differences between arrestees and nonarrestees and to minimize selection bias. Among 1,249 PHDCN youths, 58 individuals were first arrested during the study period; 43 of these arrestees were successfully matched to 126 control cases that were equivalent on a broad set of individual, family, peer, and neighborhood factors. We find that first arrests increased the likelihood of both subsequent offending and subsequent arrest, through separate processes. The effects on rearrest are substantially greater and are largely independent of the effects on reoffending, which suggests that labels trigger “secondary sanctioning” processes distinct from secondary deviance processes. Attempts to ameliorate deleterious labeling effects should include efforts to dampen their escalating punitive effects on societal responses.