A Capture–Recapture Model to Estimate the Size of Criminal Populations and the Risks of Detection in a Marijuana Cultivation Industry

Originally developed in biology, capture-recapture methodologies have increasingly been integrated into the study of human populations to provide estimates of the size of “hidden populations.” This paper explores the validity of one capture-recapture model—Zelterman’s (1988) truncated Poisson estimator—used to estimate the size of the marijuana cultivation industry in Quebec, Canada. The capture–recapture analysis draws on arrest data to estimate the number of marijuana growers “at risk of being arrested” for a period of five years (1998–2002). Estimates are provided for growers involved in two different techniques: (1) soil-based growing, and (2) hydroponics. In addition, the study develops an original method to estimate the prevalence of cultivation sites “at risk of detection.” A first set of findings shows that the cultivation industry is substantial; the estimated prevalence of growers compares to estimates of marijuana dealers in the province. Capture–recapture estimates are also used to compare the risks of being arrested for different types of offenders. Results indicate that hydroponic growers—those involved in large scale and sophisticated sites—face lower enforcement-related risks than growers involved in smaller enterprises. The significance of these findings is discussed in the context of the widespread development, both in Europe and in North America, of a successful domestic production-driven, rather than importation-driven, marijuana trade.

Dual Arrest and Other Unintended Consequences of Mandatory Arrest in New York City: A Brief Report

In jurisdictions across the United States, the mandated arrest of individuals perpetrating domestic violence crimes termed “mandatory arrest” or “pro-arrest” policies has become a key policy solution to the issue of domestic violence. The purposes of the policies are to standardize the police response to, and increase the number of, arrests stemming from domestic violence incidents by removing or reducing police discretion to arrest. In 1994, the New York state legislature passed the Family Protection and Domestic Violence Intervention Act, which contained provisions enacting a mandatory arrest statute. Using information from 183 callers to a telephone helpline for victims of domestic violence, we describe four unintended consequences of the policy: “unwanted,” “dual,” “retaliatory,” and “no” arrest. Bi- and multivariate analyses are used to identify victim and perpetrator sociodemographic, situational, and legal factors associated with each arrest type. Results are discussed in the context of the effects of mandatory arrest policies and minimizing problems associated with it in the future.

未成年人刑事案件审查逮捕程序的改革

在未成年人刑事处理走向宽缓化趋势及审查逮捕程序改革的双重背景下,对未成年人刑事案件审查逮捕程序的改革价值在于推进刑事司法改革。文章从改革的背景谈起,对改革的价值、实务部门对改革进行的探索、针对改革探索的一些论争,进行了归纳梳理,进而对改革的进程提出相关建议。     

The Influence of Legal Reform on the Probability of Arrest in Domestic Violence Cases

Using domestic violence incidence and arrest data from Maryland (1991–1997), this research examines whether the proportion of incidents that result in arrest increased due to a legislative initiative implemented in 1994 and, if so, whether this change is uniform across different types of offenders (race and gender) and offense characteristics. Using interrupted time‐series analysis (ARIMA), we observe an increase in both the number of incidents reported to police and the percent of reported cases resulting in arrest. The legislative intervention has a significant positive impact on arrest likelihood above and beyond the increase over time for the state as a whole. While arrest probabilities increased across the board for males and females, African American and Whites, the ARIMA models do not suggest that the legislation differentially impacted arrest probabilities for these groups.     

Low Self‐Control and Contact with the Criminal Justice System in a Nationally Representative Sample of Males

Prior research on law enforcement and court system actions suggests that offender demeanor influences practitioner decision making. However, few studies have examined a key implication of this body of work—namely, criminogenic factors associated not only with offending but also with demeanor may result in a greater likelihood of contact with and formal processing by law enforcement and the courts. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we test the hypothesis that low self‐control, which is associated with a range of characteristics that might influence practitioner perceptions of individual offenders’ demeanors, will predict greater contact and formal processing. Briefly, we found that low self‐control was consistently related to criminal justice system involvement as measured by police contacts, arrests, age at first police contact, and arrest onset. The implications of the findings for theory and research are discussed.     

Gang Membership,Drug Selling,and Violence in Neighborhood Context

A prominent perspective in the gang literature suggests that gang member involvement in drug selling does not necessarily increase violent behavior. In addition it is unclear from previous research whether neighborhood disadvantage strengthens that relationship. We address these issues by testing hypotheses regarding the confluence of neighborhood disadvantage, gang membership, drug selling, and violent behavior. A three‐level hierarchical model is estimated from the first five waves of the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, matched with block‐group characteristics from the 2000 U.S. Census. Results indicate that (1) gang members who sell drugs are significantly more violent than gang members that don’t sell drugs and drug sellers that don’t belong to gangs; (2) drug sellers that don’t belong to gangs and gang members who don’t sell drugs engage in comparable levels of violence; and (3) an increase in neighborhood disadvantaged intensifies the effect of gang membership on violence, especially among gang members that sell drugs.     

打击犯罪与保护人权的艰难平衡——评刑诉法修正案中侦查程序部分中的争议问题

现行刑诉法自 $141 年制定后于今迎来了第二次大面积修改。针对此次修改,尤其是对有关侦查程序的修改,有人忧虑其是刑诉法条款倒退的表现。通过对秘密拘留和逮捕、传唤和拘传时间的延长、技术侦查措施的引入和沉默权与如实供述这四个方面进行理性分析并提出完善建议,指出此次修正案在侦查程序的修改中,兼顾了打击犯罪和保护人权两方面,整体上是有进步的。对于其不细致、不周全、有矛盾而可能导致实施者自由裁量权滥用的地方,需要进行合理的完善。     

论未成年人附条件不起诉制度——以《中华人民共和国刑事诉讼法修正案》为视角

《中华人民共和国刑事诉讼法修正案》第271条至273条专门规定了未成年人附条件不起诉制度,但还存在适用案件范围过窄、适用程序条件不明确、考察机制不合理的缺陷。在司法实践中,社会调查报告制度、考察帮教机制、刑事和解制度、监督制约机制对于充分发挥未成年人附条件不起诉制度的功能具有重要作用。     

对"扑克牌通缉令"的思考

发布通缉令是公安机关为了缉拿依法应当逮捕但在逃的犯罪嫌疑人的特殊命令.美国军队在伊拉克战争中将通缉令和扑克牌有机的联系了起来,这一做法被河南省荥阳市的公安部门所吸收,发布了我国国内第一套"扑克牌通缉令".但是这一套"扑克牌通缉令"在形式合法性、空间局限性和实效有限性上都存在着问题,使其不能符合"法治精神"的要求.这一改革存在的弊端再一次暴露出我国公安机关在刑事侦查活动中"重实体、轻程序"的旧观念.     

北京市海淀区人民检察院附条件逮捕程序运行现状

海淀区人民检察院作为北京市率先试行附条件逮捕程序的检察机关.在实践中印证了附条件逮捕程序有利打击犯罪、保障刑事诉讼顺利进行的制度优越性的同时,也发现该程序存在适用范围界定不明确、侦查机关重视不足、不利于保障犯罪嫌疑人合法权益等问题,亟需采取相应举措予以完善.