On the Duration of Self-Employment: The Impact of Macroeconomic Conditions

The article examines the role of lending rates, imports and growth on the duration of self-employment in Zimbabwe while the country embarked on trade liberalisation. The variables were selected because of their importance as policy variables in reform programmes and also their importance to small entrepreneurs. Previous research has established the importance of an initial endowment and other measures of human capital on entry into self-employment as well as growth of the respective enterprises. We show that such initial conditions do not always give robust results. Instead, duration of self-employment is negatively related to higher lending rates, increased imports and structural change, but responds positively to growth.     

From Polarisation to Integration in Vietnam

This paper analyses the growth trajectory of China and related structural change to assess China's capacity to continue its rapid growth over the next decade. The evidence demonstrates that the multi-path approach undertaken has enabled China to transform its economy from low value-added towards high value-added activities through structural change from low to high value-added industries, as well as upgrading within industries. In doing so, China did not follow the neo-liberal advocacy of freeing markets. Selective state interventions facilitated China's transformation from an agricultural to an industrial economy over the last few decades. Upgrading towards higher value-added activities and the continuing strength of macroeconomic indicators, such as balance of payment and capital account surpluses, and low trade intensity of GDP and debt service along with significant deepening in human capital and R&;D activities, suggests that China will continue to grow relatively rapidly over the next decade. To do this China needs to find solutions to growing deficits in power and water supply, and potentially dangerous political upheavals if growing economic inequality problems are not solved.     

Innovation and growth in traditional agriculture of the lower Volta,Ghana

This article addresses the important question of whether foreign direct investment enhances economic growth and labour productivity in Mexico, both from a theoretical and empirical perspective. After briefly reviewing the Mexican experience with net FDI inflows during the 1990s, the article presents a simple endogenous growth model which explicitly incorporates any positive (negative) externalities generated by additions to the foreign capital stock. Using cointegration analysis, the article estimates a dynamic labour productivity function for the 1960-95 period that includes the impact of the growth rate in the stocks of both private and foreign capital (as opposed to the flows) and the economically active population (EAP) (rather than the rate of population growth). The error correction model (ECM) estimates suggest that increases in both private ad (lagged) foreign investment spending, as well as the rate of growth in exports, have a positive and economically significant effect on the rate of labour productivity growth. In addition, the results show that increases in the EAP have a negative and statistically significant effect on the rate of labour productivity growth, while changes in the government consumption variable have a negative but marginally significant impact. The error correction terms of the estimated models are negative and statistically significant, thus suggesting that deviations of actual labour productivity growth from its long-run value are corrected in subsequent periods. Finally the article generates historical simulations from the estimated ECM's and offers some policy recommendations to enhance the positive externalities associated with FDI inflows.     

Pronasale Position: An Appraisal of Two Recently Proposed Methods for Predicting Nasal Projection in Facial Reconstruction

This study examines two recently proposed methods for predicting nose projection from the skull, those developed by Stephan et al. (Am J Phys Anthropol 122, 2003, 240) and Rynn et al. (Forensic Sci Med Pathol 6, 2010, 20). A sample of 86 lateral head cephalograms of adult subjects from Central Europe was measured, and the actual and predicted dimensions were compared. Regarding nose projection (the anterior and vertical position of the pronasale), in general, the method of Rynn et al. (Forensic Sci Med Pathol 6, 2010, 20) was found to perform better and with less error variance than the method of Stephan et al. (Am J Phys Anthropol 122, 2003, 240), but the mean difference between the actual and predicted values did not exceed 2.2 mm (6.5% of the actual dimension) in most of the variables tested. The vertical dimensions of the nose were predictable with greater accuracy than the horizontal dimensions. Although the mean error of both methods is not great in practice and thus both methods could be considered to be “accurate,” the real variance of error should not be overlooked.     

FACE‐R—A 3D Database of 400 Living Individuals' Full Head CT‐ and Face Scans and Preliminary GMM Analysis for Craniofacial Reconstruction

In the past, improvements in craniofacial reconstructions (CFR) methodology languished due to the lack of adequate 3D databases that were sufficiently large and appropriate for 3‐dimensional shape statistics. In our study, we created the “FACE‐R” database from CT records and 3D surface scans of 400 clinical patients from Hungary, providing a significantly larger sample that was available before. The uniqueness of our database is linking of two data types that makes possible to investigate the bone and skin surface of the same individual, in upright position, thus eliminating many of the gravitational effects on the face during CT scanning. We performed a preliminary geometric morphometric (GMM) study using 3D data that produces a general idea of skull and face shape correlations. The vertical position of the tip of the (soft) nose for a skull and landmarks such as rhinion need to be taken into account. Likewise, the anterior nasal spine appears to exert some influence in this regard.     

Secular Trend in the Development of Permanent Teeth in a Population of Istria and the Littoral Region of Croatia

The study evaluated secular trends in dental development during a period of 30 years, correlation between dental and chronological age in Istria and the littoral region of Croatia. The sample consisted of 1000 panoramic radiographs of children, aged 6–16 years (mean 10.0 ± 1.8), taken in the period 1977–1979 (N = 500; 243 females) and 2007–2009 (N = 500; 299 females). Dental age was assessed according to Demirjian's method. Correlation between chronological and dental age was linear, positive, high, and statistically significant in both periods and genders, ranging from 0.73 to 0.86. Dental age was underestimated when compared to chronological age by 1 year on average, more 30 years ago (?1.35 ± 1.17) than today (?0.63 ± 1.09), less for girls (?0.80 ± 1.22) than boys (?1.21 ± 1.10). A statistically significant positive secular trend in acceleration of dental development was present of 0.72 years during the 30‐year period and was more significant in girls than boys (0.83‐ and 0.51‐year acceleration).     

Crime and punishment in Russia and the United States: 1990–1998

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, dramatic sociopolitical changes have affected the ability of the Russian criminal justice system to effectively process violent crimes. This paper compares the police and court processing of selected violent crimes in Russia and the United States during the period 1990–1998. Using data from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs and the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics, we examine the disposition of homicide, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault (i.e., serious bodily injury) cases in both countries during this period. Our findings indicate that while arrests and rates of homicide, robbery and aggravated assault decreased in the U.S. during this period, they increased in Russia. On the other hand, rape rates and arrests decreased in both countries during this period. Conviction rates as well as the percentage of defendants sentenced to prison in Russia were both higher than in the U.S. for each of the offenses studied during this period. We discuss implications of the findings and suggest additional research.     

转变行政管理思路 发展市场经济制度——皖粤黔川稳增长和转方式调结构调研报告

2012年经济增长下行压力加大,各地方采取了积极有效应对措施,实现经济平稳发展。该文根据对皖粤黔川四省的调研,在肯定成绩的同时,也找出了一些存在的困难和问题,并从长期困扰中国社会主义市场经济发展的思维习惯、管理体制、政策法规和运作路径入手,提出转变行政管理思路、改善行政工作方法等对策建议。     

探究民营银行发展之路

民营银行之争由来已久。中国的银行业不缺数量,缺的是结构,缺草根金融。该文回顾了民营银行艰难的探索历程,指出应科学界定民营银行经营范围和服务对象,消除制度障碍和现实阻碍,秉承先试点,后推广,循序渐进的发展思路,不断完善顶层设计,提升自身实力,让民营银行逐渐成长为金融体系中一支审要的力量。     

Political Consensus and Fiscal Outcomes

It is becoming difficult to maintain consensus in a period of economic austerity, and this possibly challenges the ability of democratic institutions to take decisions on tough economic questions. In order to find out how political consensus influences fiscal outcomes, this article sets out to analyse the association between political consensus and public expenditure growth. The results show that political consensus is positively associated with both budgeted and actual expenditure growth, but also negatively associated with budget overruns. This indicates that political consensus comes at a cost, while at the same time politicians may be better at sticking to budgets if political consensus exists. The analysis is based on a pooled regression analysis of the local governments in Denmark in the years 2008 and 2009 using a data set combining survey data with administrative data on the local governments.