析俄罗斯煤炭运输的发展前景

能源供应的可靠性和战略稳定性要求俄罗斯在能源领域必须实现燃料—能源资源的部门结构和分布多元化。煤炭运输未来发展的预测是根据“2 0 2 0年前俄罗斯的能源战略”制定的 ,该战略确定了燃料由目前占绝对优势的碳氢化合物 (石油和天然气 )向煤炭、核能和再生材料过渡的进程。同时 ,能源战略的一些指标应该考虑到经济和能源中长期发展计划的可行性和实现性。建立国家未来的起支撑作用的运输网的首要任务 ,是修筑北西伯利亚铁路线     

奥巴马政府亚太战略解析

21世纪初亚洲地位的迅速提升正在引起美国全球战略重心的东移。奥巴马政府亚太战略的目标,是要在"美国的太平洋世纪"里,"保持和加强美国在亚太地区的领导能力,改善安全,扩大繁荣,促进美国的价值观"。为此,美国将以"前沿部署外交"为开端,按照"六条关键性的行动路线"向前推进:增强美国的双边安全同盟;深化美国与新兴大国的关系;发展与区域性多边机构的接触;扩大贸易和投资;打造基础广泛的军事存在;增进民主和人权。这表明,"现实的理想主义"构成了奥巴马政府亚太战略的战略理念。     

东亚海上战略互信机制问题研究

当前东亚海上安全环境复杂多变,东亚海上安全局势受各种域内外因素影响不断加剧,形成海上安全困局的主要症结在于东亚各国之间缺乏信任基础。为了有效化解东亚地区海上矛盾争端,必须构建东亚海上战略互信机制,求取东亚各方之间海上利益的最大公约数,从而达成消除隔阂、降低风险、和谐共赢的海上安全局面。     

美国重返亚洲对中国东亚地区FTA战略的影响——基于TPP合作视角的分析

美国通过加入TPP从实质上确立了"重返亚洲"的全球战略调整,在更大程度上加快了对亚太地区经济一体化进程的干涉。美国主导下的TPP对东亚区域经济合作机制的发展产生了重要影响,也给中国的整体和局部FTA战略带来了诸多的不确定性和挑战。中国必须正确认识美国在东亚地区的经济战略转变以及TPP扩张带来的潜在影响,在此基础上对FTA战略做出合理的调整。中国的FTA战略重心仍应保留在东亚地区,提高国内企业对FTA的利用率,同时跟踪研究TPP的最新进展,为以后加入TPP谈判做好相应的准备工作。     

共建经贸合作区 增强区域经济合作新动力

在中国—东盟自由贸易区建成后新的合作起点上,中国与东盟亟须另辟蹊径,拓展、深化和提升投资合作的形式、内容和效果,在更高层次、更高水平上实现互利共赢、共同发展,而共建经贸合作区就是实现这一目标的现实路径。本文通过对各类多双边合作共建经贸合作区进行研析,探讨部分先行合作区的成功经验,并提出了加强在编制发展规划、优化发展环境、建立协作机制、引导企业入驻、做好宣传推介、多渠道筹措资金等方面的合作建议。     

Dimensions of Chinese foreign conflict and cooperation: A research note

Key mediation attributes, such as mediating actors, the strategy they choose, and previous mediation experiences, are widely thought to influence the nature of a conflict management outcome. But how and when these features shape outcomes is not a straightforward matter, and a standard analysis of these factors does not lead to their widely anticipated results. Why? We develop a new analytical framework that argues that a dispute's intensity alters the conflict management processes. Furthermore, in order to observe this variation, we also need to expand the traditional, dichotomous notion of conflict management outcomes (success or failure) to include a fuller range of observed results. Using the most recent International Conflict Management data set and our new analytical framework, we analyze the effect on conflict management outcome of mediator (a) identity, (b) strategy and (c) history. We find that directive strategies and international mediators are effective in resolving high intensity conflicts, procedural strategies and regional mediators are effective in resolving low intensity conflicts, and that mediation history always affects resolution. Our results have implications for both the study and practice of international dispute mediation.     

New Changes in the International Situation and China's Strategic Choices

The international situation is evolving more impressively than it has at any time since the end of the Cold War.Globalization has been in decline.Nations are scrambling to gain greater influence.The international strategic pattern is being adjusted.Many countries have problems with public management,and are faced with a new array of social trends and increasingly popular movements.The world is entering a new era full of chaos and anxiety.Mankind once again faces significant trade-offs and choices in peace and conflict,development and recession,openness and isolation,liberalism and conservatism.China strives to advocate win-win cooperation and lead the trend of reform and opening to maintain a favorable external environment despite world chaos,and enhance status and institutional rights in the international system.China's 30 years of development was successful in the process of integrating into the existing international system;China is a participant as well as a builder of the international system,rather than a challenger or a subversive.In the future,with a constructive attitude,China will promote the international system in a more reasonable direction together with international partners,in order to better safeguard world peace and security,and promote sustainable development throughout the world.     

International Disorder and China's Strategic Thoughts

Since the 2008 international financial crisis,international political and economic disorder has become obvious.Major reasons are the decline of US-led Western developed economies' global influence;US and other Western countries inaction or ineffective actions;power diffusion allowing non-state actors to intervene;a global governance short of needed rules;and mainstream economic theory's overemphasis on market roles.International disorder is a long-term process posing a potential threat to China' s national interests.The situation challenges China to create an international economic and trade order,thereby shaping itself as prophet of global free trade,shaper of international economic and trade rules,and trendsetter for globalization.     

Israel's Counter-Terrorism Policy: How Effective?

The percentage of Israelis killed by terrorism is higher than in any other democracy. The article analyzes the threats Israel has faced, the impact terrorism has had on Israel, and the counter-terrorism policies Israel has adopted. Terrorism has had a decisive effect on Israeli elections and national security decisions, but not the economy. Israeli counter-terrorism has often been conducted without a coherent overall policy, has failed to reflect and conflicted with broader objectives, and has greatly undermined Israel's international standing. Conversely, it has enabled Israel to live in relative security and thrive, and provided its leaders with the latitude to pursue various policies, including peace, should they wish to do so.     

美国国家安全战略视阈下的中美关系50年

自1972年中美关系“破冰”以来,美国国家安全战略视阈之内的中美关系经历了1972—1989年、1989—2017年以及2017年之后三个阶段。在这三个阶段中,制衡、塑造与争胜先后成为美国对华战略的逻辑核心。在第一阶段,美国对华的国家安全战略逻辑是“借重以制衡”,即借助中国来平衡苏联,中国在20世纪80年代一度被美国视为“友好的非盟国”。在持续时间最长的第二阶段,美国的国家安全战略逻辑是通过“接触以塑造”,希望塑造中国的政治经济模式以及对外行为方式。在20世纪90年代末期中国一度被美国视为潜在的战略伙伴。在2017年以来的第三阶段,美国试图通过“竞争以制胜”,防止中国的发展超越美国,美国国家安全战略视阈内的中国以及中美关系全面转向消极。50年来,中美关系经历过两次转向和重构,目前第二次转向和重构仍在进行中。过去50年,中美关系总是关系到美国全局性国家安全利益的重大问题;美国国家安全战略中的涉华部分超越党派之争,有着较强的一致性和连贯性,很多议题和提法都长期存在,或者早有伏笔。在美国国家安全战略中,涉华议题的内容越来越多,也越来越丰富;中美关系的合作面和竞争面都有明显增长,但竞争面的比重大幅上升。