TOWARD AN ANALYTICAL CRIMINOLOGY: THE MICRO–MACRO PROBLEM,CAUSAL MECHANISMS,AND PUBLIC POLICY

In this address, I revisit the micro–macro problem in criminology, arguing for an “analytical criminology” that takes an integrated approach to the micro–macro problem. I begin by contrasting an integrated methodological‐individualist approach with traditional holist and individualist approaches. An integrated approach considers the concept of emergence and tackles the difficult problem of specifying causal mechanisms by which interactions among individuals produce social organizational outcomes. After presenting a few examples of micro–macro transitions relevant to criminology, I discuss research programs in sociology and economics that focus on these issues. I then discuss the implications of social interaction effects for making causal inferences about crime and for making crime policy recommendations.     

DO CELLMATES MATTER? A CAUSAL TEST OF THE SCHOOLS OF CRIME HYPOTHESIS WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR DIFFERENTIAL ASSOCIATION AND DETERRENCE THEORIES

In the schools of crime hypothesis, social interactions between inmates are assumed to produce criminogenic rather than deterrent prison peer effects, thus implicating them in the persistence of high recidivism rates and null or criminogenic prison effects. We assess the validity of the schools of crime hypothesis by estimating prison peer effects that result from differential cellmate associations in a male, first‐time release cohort from the Pennsylvania Department of Corrections. To isolate causal prison peer effects in the presence of essential heterogeneity, we use a semiparametric local instrumental variables estimation strategy. Our results do not support the school of crime hypothesis. In our sample, prison peer effects produced in interaction with more criminally experienced cellmates are always null or deterrent rather than criminogenic. Although we do not explicitly test for the operant conditioning mechanisms theorized to underlie social influence in the context of differential association, we argue that, under the assumption that the differential association context relates positively to the direction of peer influence, our universally noncriminogenic estimates exclude direct reinforcement, vicarious reinforcement, and direct punishment as potential drivers of prison peer effects produced in interaction with more criminally experienced cellmates. Our results support the assertion that operant conditioning mechanisms connect differential association and deterrence theories.     

警民互动的理论基础研究

当前我国正在全面实施社区警务战略,其核心内容就是通过警民之间的互动,充分利用社区资源凝聚社区的向心力,从而解决社区中的治安问题。但不管在理论界还是在实战部门,对警民互动的理论缺乏研究。本文提出了警民互动的四个理论基础：社会契约论(Thesocialcontract)、变革管理理论(ManagingChange)、破窗理论(BrokenWindowTheory)和社会控制理论(SocialContrloTheory)。     

论市民社会与继承制度的走向

市民社会的成长决定了继承制度的演进。本文旨在透过市民社会的历史变迁及其与政治国家的互动关系,发现现代继承制度为影印市民社会与政治国家的格局所应考虑的问题。文章第一部分,从继承的目的、继承的客体、继承的主体以及继承当事人的意愿等四个方面,分析了古代市民社会的不成熟性;第二部分,分别从古代社会家(族)内部和家(族)之间寻找市民社会的生长点,揭示继承制度随着市民社会的发展成熟而演进的过程;第三部分,从与第一部分相对应的四个方面,分析市民社会与政治国家的并立与互动关系,提出我国继承制度中存在的一些问题和现代继承制度的走向。     

Mother-Adolescent Health Communication: Are All Conversations Created Equally?

Fifty-two mother-adolescent dyads (mean adolescent age = 16.3) participated in an observational study of communication about health topics. The aim of the study was to examine mother-adolescent conversations about health issues—drugs/alcohol, sexuality, nutrition/exercise—to determine the extent to which the mothers treat these issues similarly. Across conversations, mothers spent more time asking questions than lecturing or discussing negative consequences. Mothers discussed negative consequences less in the nutrition/exercise and sexuality conversations than in the drug/alcohol conversation. Mothers asked fewer questions when discussing nutrition/exercise than drugs/alcohol, and lectured more in the nutrition/exercise conversation than in the sexuality conversation. The results of this study have implications for intervention programmers advocating in the media that parents “talk to your kids” about these health issues. Tanya L. Boone is an Assistant Professor of Psychology at California State University, Bakersfield. She received her Ph.D. in 2003 from The Pennsylvania State University. Her major research interests include adolescent risk behaviors and the influences on such behaviors, with a focus on family influences. Eva S. Lefkowitz is an Associate Professor of Human Development and Family Studies at The Pennsylvania State University. She received her Ph.D. in 1998 from the University of California, Los Angeles. Her major research interests include the development of attitudes, behaviors, and relationships during adolescence and emerging adulthood.     

民族文化与生态环境的互动关系

生态环境与民族文化有着密不可分的联系,这种联系主要表现为:文化的存在与发展总是与生态环境的发展变化相关。一方面,文化多元性是人们在生态多样性的环境下适应性反应的产物;另一方面,在趋同的生境状况下,由于生产力低下和外来文化影响等原因,多元的民族文化在某种程度上又呈现出同一性特征。乡土传统文化模式的重构推动着民族文化与生态环境良性互动发展。     

The Meaning of Intuition for the Negotiation Process and Outcome

Intuition is a useful tool for negotiators, as negotiations are often highly complex endeavors in which people make holistic judgments with incomplete information and no time for deliberation. Therefore, one might expect that intuition greatly influences negotiations and their outcomes and that negotiators would use intuition to their advantage. However, there is almost no systematic research into the meaning of intuition for negotiation. In this conceptual paper, drawing on five interviews of experienced negotiators, we apply general research on intuition to the specific case of negotiation and find that negotiators use intuition specifically for attribution and social interaction. We distinguish different intuition attitudes; identify preparation, time, and negotiation stages as relevant drivers for the use of intuition in negotiation; clarify the distinction between intuition and routine; and shine new light on the concept of domain-specific knowledge.     

找回“弱关系”:解决农村纯女户融合难的现实路径——来自江西Y村的思考

在以往的社会网络研究中,多注重社会网络中强关系部分,而对弱关系研究强调不够。良好的弱关系是个体与社会发生联系的重要环境,在男性偏好依然存在的农村地区,邻里的接纳与支持对于纯女户顺利融入社区具有重要意义。本文在分析了纯女户日常交往中获得弱支持资料的基础上,认为正向弱关系的缺乏造成了纯女户人际交往上的疏离,这是一种隐性的歧视方式,更应引起警觉。     

海峡两岸双边贸易流量与潜力研究——基于贸易引力模型的实证分析

以贸易引力模型的相关理论和方法为基础,实证检验并测算了大陆各省市(自治区)与台湾双边贸易的流量与潜力,结果表明:大陆各省市(自治区)的GDP、人均GDP和吸引台资额,各省市(自治区)与台湾之间的绝对距离,以及"两岸贸易热络区"等解释变量,是影响两岸双边贸易流量的主要因素,但影响程度各有不同。由于双边贸易的紧密程度(贸易依存度)不同,大陆各省市(自治区)与台湾的贸易潜力也不一样,对台出口和自台进口的发展空间也存在差别。因此,海峡两岸应采取针对性的措施,进一步加强经贸交流与合作,充分发挥各自的比较优势和竞争优势,消除双边投资和贸易的制约因素,实现两岸经济的共同繁荣。