北美城市规划决策对我国城市建设的启示——以加拿大城市和土地使用规划决策听证为视角

国外城市规划管理一般都比较注重社会参与和全民参与,并通过立法和机构设置保障全民监督的实施。加拿大行政决策公众参与听证被广泛用于公共管理事务以获取来自专家和公众的信息,对我国城市和土地使用规划不无启示。我国不可能完全模仿法制成熟国家的做法,但增加一些公众权利保障的立法规定和管理措施是非常必要的。     

论网络舆情对政府制定公共政策的影响

当前我国处于网络信息新时代,网络舆情是政府了解民意的重要渠道和方法,对于民意的征求也应适当地采取网络投票、提问等方式。网络传播方式已成为我国公众表达利益诉求、维护自身权益的重要公共平台。因此,网络舆情对政府制定决策有着重要的影响,同时伴随着很大的压力,并且网络舆情的积极作用与消极作用并存,所以网络舆情状态下政府如何制定好公共政策成为考验政府能力的一个挑战。     

Re-Examining the Functional Form of the Certainty Effect in Deterrence Theory

In this paper we explore the functional form of the risk-certainty effect for deterrence. Using a sample of serious youth offenders, we first estimate a simple linear model of the relationship between the perceived certainty of punishment and self-reported offending. Consistent with previous literature we find evidence of a moderate deterrent effect. We then examined whether, consistent with a linear model, the effect of perceived risk is truly constant at different ranges of the risk continuum. Estimating a nonparametric regression model that makes no a priori assumption about the functional form of the model but allows the data itself to yield the appropriate functional form, we found marked departures from linearity. Our examination showed evidence of both a tipping effect, whereby perceived risk deters only when it reaches a certain threshold (between an estimated risk of .3 and .4) and a substantially accelerated deterrent effect for individuals at the high end of the risk continuum. Perceived sanction threats did, however, have a non-trivial deterrent effect within the mid-range of risk. The implications of our findings for both theory and additional research are discussed.     

对加快构建我国公民参与公共决策的有效途径与机制的探索

当今中国正处于社会转型时期,社会利益分化、多元是突出的特征。构建我国公民参与公共决策的有效途径与机制是创新社会管理机制体制的新突破口,而政府信息公开制度的创建、健全和完善,公民利益诉求表达渠道的创建、拓展和通畅是构建这一新机制的最为关键的两个环节,必须牢牢抓住,真正沿着这一方向努力,才能取得实效。     

国外大部制梳理与借鉴

大部制是市场经济发达国家普遍采用的一种政府组织模式。与传统的"小部制"相比,大部制具有明显的比较优势。国外组建大部门的一般规律是,先在同领域整合,后向跨领域整合扩展;政务类部门多为同领域的大部,经济和社会类部门多为跨领域的大部;谁与谁组合无一定之规,关键是职能相互融合。部门内部的机构重组也是大部制改革的重要内容,国外的流行趋势是实行决策与执行分开,设立各种形式的执行机构,具体可分为5种模式。     

心理测试技术的误差分析

心理测试技术测试误差主要来自被测对象、题目编制、测试实施过程等三个相对独立的方面,且随机误差和系统误差的权重也不同。对被测对象的个别化、动态化处理,科学的编题,适当的测前访谈,动态、整体、多因素参考的评图等能有效提高测试准确性。     

Reflective and decisive supervision: The role of participative leadership and team climate in joint decision-making

Supervisory bodies can intervene in organizational practices that may harm society, but their effectiveness to do so depends on their ability to make decisions reflectively and decisively. Are these tendencies incompatible with each other or can they go together? Can empowering leadership (i.e. participative, coaching, informing behaviors) stimulate reflectiveness and decisiveness? A 10-item Joint Decision-Making Questionnaire was developed and tested among supervisory officers (N = 87) and supervisory board members (N = 158). Reflectiveness and decisiveness were positively correlated, indicating that these tendencies can be reconciled in joint decision-making (Study 1). An examination of 44 supervisory teams further revealed that participative leadership relates to more reflectiveness and decisiveness, via cooperative trust and goal commitment (Study 2). Moreover, teams that experienced this team climate prior to COVID-19 reported that they acted more reflectively and decisively during this crisis (Study 3). Hence, participative leaders can foster reflectiveness and decisiveness, by promoting cooperative trust and goal commitment.     

The Development and Application of Random Match Probabilities to Firearm and Toolmark Identification

The field of firearms and toolmark analysis has encountered deep scrutiny of late, stemming from a handful of voices, primarily in the law and statistical communities. While strong scrutiny is a healthy and necessary part of any scientific endeavor, much of the current criticism leveled at firearm and toolmark analysis is, at best, misinformed and, at worst, punditry. One of the most persistent criticisms stems from the view that as the field lacks quantified random match probability data (or at least a firm statistical model) with which to calculate the probability of a false match, all expert testimony concerning firearm and toolmark identification or source attribution is unreliable and should be ruled inadmissible. However, this critique does not stem from the hard work of actually obtaining data and performing the scientific research required to support or reject current findings in the literature. Although there are sound reasons (described herein) why there is currently no unifying probabilistic model for the comparison of striated and impressed toolmarks as there is in the field of forensic DNA profiling, much statistical research has been, and continues to be, done to aid the criminal justice system. This research has thus far shown that error rate estimates for the field are very low, especially when compared to other forms of judicial error. The first purpose of this paper is to point out the logical fallacies in the arguments of a small group of pundits, who advocate a particular viewpoint but cloak it as fact and research. The second purpose is to give a balanced review of the literature regarding random match probability models and statistical applications that have been carried out in forensic firearm and toolmark analysis.     

完善党内民主决策机制问题研究

近年来,关于党内民主决策机制的研究,不断得到学者的重视,对其注解,不管是理论领域,还是现实层面日趋明朗。党的十七届四中全会进一步明确在新时期继续完善党内民主决策机制,在此精神指引下,研究完善党内民主决策机制的现实路径,既务实,又具理论价值。