利用中国汉族成年人胸部正位CR片影像学特征判定年龄

目的建立利用胸部正位CR片影像学变化判定年龄的方程,并评价其法医学意义。方法收集381例汉族成年人胸部正位CR片样本,其中男性208例,女性173例。选取胸部右侧第一肋胸骨端、左侧第一肋胸骨端、右侧第五肋胸骨端、左侧锁骨骨小梁和左侧锁骨松质骨网眼5项特征性指标,对351例样本进行描述评分,运用SPSS 19.0软件进行多元线性回归模型条件的基本论证,建立回归方程。并使用30例样本对方程的准确性进行盲测。结果本文所选取的5项胸部正位CR片特征性指标与年龄的关系可以使用线性回归模型(P0.05);建立了1组全指标回归方程和2组分组逐步回归方程,全指标回归方程估计值的标准误男性和女性分别为2.83岁和3.41岁,低年龄组(18~35岁)男性和女性分别为2.47岁和2.79岁,高年龄组(36~50岁)男性和女性分别为2.39岁和2.55岁;随机选取30例样本的盲测结果,误差在3岁以内的,全指标回归方程男性和女性分别为80.0%和73.3%,分组回归方程男性和女性分别为86.7%和80.0%。结论利用胸部正位CR片影像学特征变化可判定年龄。     

Women’s age at last childbearing and its determinants: a case study of Antwerp (Flanders,Belgium) on the basis of the multi-source COR* historical sample

Declines in the age at last childbearing in the first demographic transition reflected conscious changes in fertility behaviour during that period, in particular efforts to limit the total number of children. Such fertility limitation behaviour was the net result of ‘cultural causal factors’ on the one hand and ‘structural and economic causal factors’ on the other hand. This paper analyses the evolution of women’s age at last childbearing by reconstructing women’s life histories based on data from the multi-source COR* historical sample for Antwerp in the period 1846–1920. The paper also assesses the causes of this evolution through a number of theoretically grounded structural/economic, cultural and life course determinants, placing these concepts in a macro-micro framework of methodological individualism. For this purpose, in the first place a Kaplan-Meier analysis is applied to 10-year birth cohorts; a proportional hazard model is also applied to three different birth cohorts (mothers born before 1840; born in the period 1840–1859; and born after 1860); and a range of cultural and life course determinants are analysed, including women’s literacy status, marriage witness characteristics, the seasonality of marriages and births, and birth histories. The analysis confirms the decline in the age at last childbearing especially in the late cohort, and also highlights inter-cohort differences caused by cultural and life course determinants.     

人口老年化进程中的老年犯罪问题初探——以浙江省老年人犯罪为例

老年(龄)化是生产力不断进步,人类社会不断发展的必然趋势。我国自1999年进入老年(龄)化社会后,老年(龄)化速度大大高于世界其他国家。在快速老年(龄)化过程中产生了包括老年犯罪在内的诸多社会问题,解决这些问题才能更好地构建社会主义和谐社会。结合浙江省老年(龄)化实际及老年(龄)化过程中老年人犯罪发展变化实际,阐述两者间关系,提出遏制老年(龄)化进程中老年犯罪的对策。     

论当代大学生思想政治教育的时代特征

当代大学生的成长正处于我国经济转型、社会转轨的特殊时期,社会转型因素增加了思想政治教育工作的不确定性,使高校的思想政治教育工作面临着许多新的挑战。加强和改进大学生思想政治教育要充分体现与市场经济、改革开放、网络化社会相适应的时代特点。作为思想政治教育工作者,只有紧密地结合时代特征、促进我国和谐社会的构建、以人为本、不断地探寻思想政治教育的新方法新手段,才能使思想政治教育工作取得成效。     

从数字资源开发看公安特色数据库的建设与发展

公安文献信息数字资源主要来自公安机关、院校、协会等建立的特色数据库;建设特色数据库应全面掌握公安业务信息,深入了解公安学科专业设置状况,在与其它公安院校合作的基础上,建立起具有鲜明学科、专业特色的数据库体系,以便更好地为用户提供高质量的专业化服务。     

Status of Mandibular Third Molar Development as Evidence in Legal Age Threshold Cases

The completion of the third molar roots has played an important role in ascertaining whether individuals may be at or over a legal threshold of age, often taken as 18 years. This study demonstrates that root apex completion in the third molar is relatively uninformative regarding the threshold of age 18 years in a sample of 1184 males, where mean age‐of‐attainment of root apex completion for third mandibular molars is about 19.4 years. This paper also considers the legal age threshold problem for cases where the third mandibular molar is not completely formed, and outlines the use of parametric models and Bayes’ factors to evaluate dental evidence in statistically appropriate ways. It attempts to resolve confusion over age‐within‐stage versus age‐of‐attainment, likelihood ratios versus other diagnostic tests, and prior odds for a case versus the prior density for an age distribution.     

Bone Area Histomorphometry

Quantifying the amount of cortical bone loss is one variable used in histological methods of adult age estimation. Measurements of cortical area tend to be subjective and additional information regarding bone loss is not captured considering cancellous bone is disregarded. We describe whether measuring bone area (cancellous + cortical area) rather than cortical area may improve histological age estimation for the sixth rib. Mid‐shaft rib cross‐sections (n = 114) with a skewed sex distribution were analyzed. Ages range from 16 to 87 years. Variables included: total cross‐sectional area, cortical area, bone area, relative bone area, relative cortical area, and endosteal area. Males have larger mean total cross‐sectional area, bone area, and cortical area than females. Females display a larger mean endosteal area and greater mean relative measure values. Relative bone area significantly correlates with age. The relative bone area variable will provide researchers with a less subjective and more accurate measure than cortical area.     

An Evidence‐based Forensic Taxonomy of Windows Phone Dating Apps

Advances in technologies including development of smartphone features have contributed to the growth of mobile applications, including dating apps. However, online dating services can be misused. To support law enforcement investigations, a forensic taxonomy that provides a systematic classification of forensic artifacts from Windows Phone 8 (WP8) dating apps is presented in this study. The taxonomy has three categories, namely: Apps Categories, Artifacts Categories, and Data Partition Categories. This taxonomy is built based on the findings from a case study of 28 mobile dating apps, using mobile forensic tools. The dating app taxonomy can be used to inform future studies of dating and related apps, such as those from Android and iOS platforms.     

Digital Infrastructure for Diversity—On Digital Bookshelf and Google Books

Diversity is a core value of cultural policy, and new global digital conditions for creative industries mean new challenges for diversity at a national level. Internet has become a new infrastructure for services and platforms, and global actors as Google and Amazon are changing the play. This article concerns digitization of books, the collection of the National Library of Norway and cultural policy. The results indicate the National Library's digital collection contributes to diversity in terms of demography, content, dissemination and techno-cultural aspects. For policy makers, libraries and researchers the study demonstrates a national digital service's contribution to expanded diversity.     

A New Approach of Juvenile Age Estimation using Measurements of the Ilium and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) Models for Better Age Prediction

Juvenile age estimation methods used in forensic anthropology generally lack methodological consistency and/or statistical validity. Considering this, a standard approach using nonparametric Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) models were tested to predict age from iliac biometric variables of male and female juveniles from Marseilles, France, aged 0–12 years. Models using unidimensional (length and width) and bidimensional iliac data (module and surface) were constructed on a training sample of 176 individuals and validated on an independent test sample of 68 individuals. Results show that MARS prediction models using iliac width, module and area give overall better and statistically valid age estimates. These models integrate punctual nonlinearities of the relationship between age and osteometric variables. By constructing valid prediction intervals whose size increases with age, MARS models take into account the normal increase of individual variability. MARS models can qualify as a practical and standardized approach for juvenile age estimation.