Modelling Transitions To and From Democracy

This article describes the results of a broad reanalysis of factors shaping the prospects of countries making a transition to or from democracy using a new measure of regime type. While some of the results are consistent with prior quantitative and comparative research, others are not. For example, in line with other studies, the article finds that autocracies are more likely to make a transition to democracy when they offer broader protections for civil liberties, experience a change in political leadership, or suffer an economic downturn. At the same time, the analysis does not support the claim that transitions in neighbouring countries directly improve prospects for a transition to democracy, or that economic decline and presidential systems heighten the risk of democratic breakdown. Perhaps most intriguing, our model of transitions to democracy also identifies a new twist on old stories linking economic development to democratization. For countries under authoritarian rule that have attempted democracy before, the research here indicates that development does improve prospects for another attempt, as modernization theory suggests. For countries with no democratic experience, however, affluence conveys no direct democratizing benefit and appears, if anything, to help sustain authoritarian rule.     

Constraining political corruption: an empirical analysis of the impact of democracy

The present article addresses the relationship between democracy and political corruption. Extending past studies, this article introduces important refinements that respond to theoretical and methodological concerns. The theoretical framework proposed here is developed based on an electoral conception of democracy, which makes it possible to avoid the potential endogeneity problems associated with substantial definitions of democracy. I argue that despite the influence of other important aspects of democracy, elections and inter-party competition per se help to constrain political corruption. The article examines two analytical dimensions of democracy, the current level of democracy and its degree of consolidation over time. Unlike previous studies, a cross-national empirical analysis of a sample of more than 100 countries reveals that when tested together, the level of democracy and its degree of longitudinal variation are both significantly related to the control of corruption. The level of democracy affects corruption in a non-linear way. Hybrid regimes that are more autocratic than democratic show a lower level of corruption control than democracies, near-democracies, and closed dictatorships. The analysis also confirms that, despite having adopted different measures, more consolidated democracies are more powerful in constraining corruption.     

Analysing legislative performance: a plebeian perspective

Legislative performance can be understood in terms of results (the quality of the laws enacted) or in terms of the literal performativity of legislators (the quality of their appearances on the public stage). This article examines two different ethical frameworks for evaluating legislative performance in this latter, performative sense: a deliberative model, which restricts just political performances to deliberative exchanges among citizens, and a plebeian model, which expands just political performances to include those where political and economic elites endure special burdens as a condition of their elevated status. Given certain drawbacks of the deliberative model and parallel advantages of the plebeian model, I endorse the plebeian approach to political performativity. The article concludes by elaborating one of the key contrasts between the two models with regard to political communication, namely the plebeian model's embrace of a distinct form of legislative disruption. Beyond the way deliberation itself disrupts non-communicative forms of power and beyond the way protests physically disrupt governmental processes, plebeianism invokes a third kind of disruption – non-deliberative speech – intended to rebuke and humble leaders rather than reach mutual understanding about issues.     

Ritual,strategy, and deep culture in the Chechen national movement

This paper probes the dichotomy between strategic performance of cultural text and a strong approach to culture that sees fundamental texts as encompassing and determining social action. The central question posed is whether the paradigmatic emphasis on strategy in cultural analysis of protest and social movements misses the compelling influences that cultural texts may exert under certain conditions. Regarding protest movements and political contention, I am especially interested in the ‘deep textual grammar’ of the conflict, which can strongly constrain and guide social action. By identifying and analysing the deep cultural text of the Chechen nationalist movement for the period 1989–1999, this study shows that, in addition to strategic decisions, movement trajectories are sometimes strongly – almost ritualistically – culturally determined. As a first step towards reconceptualising the role of culture in social movements and to spur further investigation, this paper offers several propositions derived from the Chechen case about the relationship of deep culture and mobilisation.     

An Analysis of Advertisements: A Lens for Viewing the Social Exclusion of Women in Police Imagery

This study examines whether there are differential relationships among trauma exposure, familial risk and protective factors, substance abuse, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among incarcerated and non-incarcerated women. A case-control method was used to match 100 incarcerated women with 100 women in the general population. Incarcerated women had a significantly higher risk of trauma exposure as compared with controls, with odds ranging from 1.7 to 3.7. When group was controlled, exposure to sexual or physical trauma significantly increased the odds of PTSD (odds ratio = 5.0; p < .05), as did substance use in response to traumatic distress (odds ratio = 8.9; p < .001). Family-related characteristics did not appear to moderate this relationship. The findings suggest that incarcerated women are at high risk for PTSD given their high rates of trauma exposure and apparent lack of appropriate coping mechanisms; the results support the use of trauma-specific interventions for this population.     

一种面向利益分析的政策研究方法

构建社会主义和谐社会,对政策制定的科学化和民主化提出了新的更高的要求,即必须更加重视各方利益的表达和协调,以实现共赢。本文在综合分析软科学和政策科学两个相对独立的学科现状的基础上,讨论当前政策研究在利益分析上存在的不足及其根源,指出政策研究需要超越先前主流的实证主义范式,发展面向利益分析的理论和方法。针对我国政策制定中利益分析和协调的现实需求,本文介绍了一种基于讨论式博弈和综合集成支持的公共政策实验方法(EPRM),论述了该方法的基本思路、运用过程和若干焦点问题。     

笔迹的多层次及其在检验中的应用

在笔迹检验中,以笔迹多层次属性为基础,才能正确认识笔迹,分析笔迹,系统开展笔迹检验。文章从笔迹形成的多层次和笔迹特征的多层次两个方面系统研究笔迹内在的多层次性,探讨了多层次属性在文件物证检验中的应用,对笔迹检验理论的丰富和检验技术的提高都有着重要的意义。     

Screening for Substance Use Disorders as a Supplement to Caseworker Assessment Among Foster Care–Involved Families

Parental substance abuse is a major factor in families experiencing foster care placement, yet little is known about the potential of screening in determining risk or identifying subpopulations for which elevated risk occurs. One Midwestern state recently implemented screening. This research uses information gathered as part of the screen's implementation to conduct a latent class analysis. The research was extended to provide a detailed examination of differences in child and family characteristics across classes, and to compare the screen results with caseworker impressions. Three distinct typologies emerged, with the high-risk and moderate-risk designations comprising only one quarter of the cases.     

游客形象对中国公共外交的影响分析

中国已经成为世界第一旅游消费大国,庞大的出国人群原本可以成为公共外交的使者和国家形象的代言人,遗憾的是,此起彼伏的中国游客不文明行为,不仅引起目的地居民的反感,而且降低了中国政府公共外交的可信度,使国家形象受损。在全民外交时代,应加强对游客形象问题的研究,探究其对公共外交的影响程度,充分发挥个体在公共外交中的积极作用。     

当前我国受贿犯罪的特点、原因及对策

近年来,我国在打击受贿犯罪方面做着积极的努力。2005年10月27日,我国立法机关以全票批准加入《联合国反腐败公约》。2007年9月13日,我国正式成立国家预防腐败局。但是,这些仍未能遏制住我国受贿犯罪的发展势头。据NGO"透明国际"2012年12月5日发布的2012年度全球清廉指数排名,在176个国家和地区中,中国列第80位。这样的位次反映出我国的腐败问题仍较严重。因而,我们有必要从受贿犯罪的特点入手,对受贿犯罪频发的原因进行分析,并在此基础上探讨应对之策。