Interpreting “Cumulative Extremism”: Six Proposals for Enhancing Conceptual Clarity

The concept of “cumulative extremism”—described in 2006 by Roger Eatwell as “the way in which one form of extremism can feed off and magnify other forms [of extremism],” has recently gained considerable traction in academic, policy, and practitioner discourses about extremism. Yet in spite of the growing usage of the term, particularly in analyses of the dynamic between extreme Islamist and extreme Right-Wing or anti-Muslim protest groups, there has to date been scant interrogation of the concept itself or of its application. In this article, we make a series of six proposals as to how we might enhance the conceptual clarity of these conversations about “cumulative extremism.” Our aim in doing so is to increase the likelihood that the concept might become a useful addition to the debates on extremism rather than becoming, to borrow a term from John Horgan—something of an “explanatory fiction”—an idea that appears to enable us to explain a great deal, but whose explanatory value is largely lost because there is insufficient scrutiny of the claims that it is used to make and whose liberal application becomes increasingly conducive to poor science.     

The sublime and the cultures of the extreme: An exploration

Abstract

The article traces the relationship between the concept of the traditional sublime and the contemporary cultures of the extreme and their fascination with unlimitation. It is asked to what degree the aesthetic category of the sublime, generally defined as a ‘formlessness’, can assist in exploring and making sense of the cultures of the extreme. The cultures of the extreme are analysed by means of three tropes, namely the ecstasy of speed, the immersion into immediacy, and the shrinking of the natural landscape. By utilising these three tropes or hermeneutical tools, the author attempts to show how these events typify the contemporary obsession with extremes, and can indeed be likened to a pseudo-sublime or kitsch sublime.     

Review of Uncertainty Economic Cycle Theory

Uncertainty shocks have significant impact on macroeconomic development, and it is the key factor for economic policymaking. The uncertainty economic cycle theory is the frontier macroeconomics research, using the time-varying volatility model to describe the uncertainty, and introducing the time-varying volatility model into dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. This paper systematically reviews the definition and measurement of uncertainty, the solving of DSGE models with uncertainty shocks, the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks and its micro-mechanisms, and puts forward the potential research direction of uncertainty shocks in China.     

关于波动率及其预测方法的文献综述

波动性研究已经渗透到整个现代金融理论体系，对波动性的精确测量和预测已经成为资产定价、金融衍生品的定价和交易策略设计的关键。多年来，国内外学者对波动率及其预测方法进行了大量细致的研究，取得了相关的重大成果，这将为今后进一步的研究奠定良好的基础。     

社会排斥与社会融合:泄愤型个人极端暴力犯罪的社会学思考

近年来,泄愤型个人极端暴力犯罪成为当前和今后一个时期影响我国治安秩序和社会稳定最突出的问题之一,学术界对泄愤型个人极端暴力犯罪的研究多是从心理学和犯罪学等微观角度来进行,较少考察社会因素对犯罪主体的重要影响,鉴于这一情况,应着重探讨泄愤型个人极端暴力犯罪的宏观社会背景,从社会排斥理论出发,分析泄愤型个人极端暴力犯罪的发生机理,进而从社会融合理论的角度提出化解泄愤型个人极端暴力犯罪的路径,实现对受社会排斥的社会群体的融合,确保社会长治久安.     

拉美民众意识形态极化趋势及其影响

拉美国家近年来政局不稳的一个重要原因在于民众的意识形态出现了极化的趋势。本文分析了2012—2019年间“美洲晴雨表”中18个拉美国家的数据,发现自2014年以来,持极端意识形态的民众尤其是持极左观点的民众比重出现了显著上升,这主要是受到经济发展形势和各国执政党意识形态两个因素的交互影响。宏观上,以极左民众比重上升为特征的极化趋势主要是受到整个区域经济持续低迷和右翼政府的紧缩性经济政策影响。微观上,本文通过回归分析发现,民众对国家经济形势的判断与其所在国执政党的意识形态共同影响着其极化方向。在右翼执政的国家,民众对国家经济形势的评价越负面,其持极左观点的概率越高,持极右观点的概率越低;在左翼执政的国家,民众对国家经济形势的评价越负面,其持极左观点的概率越低,持极右观点的概率越高。最后,本文讨论了民众意识形态极化对拉美国家政局稳定的影响。本文发现,拉美极端民众尤其是极左民众参加抗议游行的概率显著高于温和民众。这意味着一国的极端民众比重越高,其发生大规模示威游行的概率越高。     

The French secular hypocrisy: the extreme right,the Republic and the battle for hegemony

ABSTRACT

The success of the extreme right in France in the past two decades has not been limited to its electoral rise. A more long-lasting victory has taken place in the ideological field, where the discourse of the extreme right now occupies a prominent place in the mainstream liberal democratic agenda. Increasingly, its ideas are seen in the media and in the platforms of mainstream parties as ‘common sense’ or at least acceptable. The growing acceptance of this ‘common sense’ is the result of very carefully crafted strategies put in place by extreme-right thinkers since the 1980s. For over three decades now, in order to change perceptions and renew extreme right-wing ideology, New Right think tanks such as the French GRECE believed it was necessary to borrow the tactics of the left and, more specifically, the Gramscian concept of hegemony: cultural power must precede political power. With the use of contemporary examples, Mondon's article demonstrates the continuing impact these ideas have had on the Front national and French politics and society, and how this change originated in the association of populist rhetoric with the neo-racist stigmatization of the Other.     

Jean Thiriart in Cairo and Bagdad

ABSTRACT

In the ‘poor’ result achieved by Jean-Marie Le Pen in the 2007 presidential elections, many commentators saw the demise of the Front National. However, when asked by a journalist whether it was the end of her father's political career, Marine Le Pen smilingly replied: ‘I don't think so. In any case, this is the victory of his ideas!’ In this question and answer lies the whole story of the Front National and its impact on mainstream politics in the past two decades. First, Le Pen's defeat was exaggerated, the same way his victory had been in 2002. What Mondon argues in this paper is that the 2002 presidential elections did act as an ‘earthquake’ within French politics. However, this ‘earthquake’ did not trigger a tsunami of support for Jean-Marie Le Pen, but rather a tidal wave of misinformation and misunderstanding as to the real significance of the election results. By concentrating on the 2002 and 2007 presidential elections, Mondon highlights how this reaction led to the consecration of right-wing populist politics, best exemplified in the landslide election of Nicolas Sarkozy in 2007. He also provides an insight into the slippery slope Sarkozy's government took after its election, leading to an extremely rightward-leaning 2012 presidential campaign and new heights for the Front National.     

Riots,disasters and racism: impending racial cataclysm and the extreme right in the United States

ABSTRACT

Three events in late 2005—Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath in New Orleans, the Muslim riots in the suburbs of Paris, and the Cronulla ‘uprising’ in Australia—were interpreted by the American extreme right as confirmation of a long-feared impending racial cataclysm. Michael and Mulloy examine analyses of these events from various representatives of the American extreme right. While the mainstream media were often diffident about reporting frankly on the more sensitive implications of these events, this phenomenological approach may provide insight on how various controversial issues—such as immigration, race and multiculturalism—impinge on contemporary American society, culture and politics.     

“管理极端气候事件和灾害风险特别报告”对我国的启示

政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)最新发布的"管理极端气候事件和灾害风险促进气候变化适应特别报告决策者摘要(SREX)"从"极端气候事件+脆弱性+暴露程度"的角度剖析了灾害风险的根源,综合考虑了气候、环境、社会经济条件等因素,提出了管理灾害风险和适应气候变化的各种政策选项,对于我国把风险管理纳入应对气候变化行动的整体框架提供了重要的科学依据。本文基于特别报告的主要结论,结合我国防灾减灾工作的实际情况,提出加快社会经济发展、实现社会系统重构、发挥政策协同效应是今后防灾减灾工作的重要着力点。