Democracy in microstates: why smallness does not produce a democratic political system

To fully understand the function of volatility in today's European democracies, it is necessary to employ the principal-agent model. Where democracy is exercised in the form of party government, then it is especially essential to enquire into how the electorate can monitor politicians. Electoral volatility may increase the responsiveness of the party system to the electorate and increase the accountability of politicians. Party system instability is persistently higher in the east European democracies than in western Europe. System transition in eastern Europe passes through the party system, as new parties enter the electoral arena. Political innovation in western Europe also passes through the party system, where new movements appear alongside the established parties. However, there are signs of decreasing volatility in the east, whereas volatility is on the rise in several west European democracies. There will be convergence between west and east European democracies: both will experience considerable volatility in the future. This is a positive gain for democratic vitality in Tingsten's conception. The level of party system fractionalization is already the same over the regions of Europe. The principal-agent model would favour several agents as well as agent switches, which means a moderate level of party system instability.     

政治发展与政治稳定

政治稳定是政治发展的前提和基础,政治发展是政治稳定的目标和保障.只有在政治稳定中实现政治发展,才能跳出政治发展-政治动荡-政治僵化的周期律,走出政治发展与政治动荡的两难境地,实现政治发展与政治稳定的最佳结合和良性互动.     

The transnationalization of the extreme right and the use of the Internet

Like many other political actors, the extreme right is currently expanding beyond national borders, and, as with any civil society organization, the Internet is assuming a growing role in achieving this goal. To date, however, this topic is understudied. In this article, aiming to empirically filling this gap, we shall explore the new tactics of the extreme right in Europe and the USA in the context of transnational politics. Namely, we investigate the degree and forms of extreme right transnationalization (in terms of mobilization, issues, targets, action strategies, and organizational contacts) and the potential role of the Internet in these developments. The analysis combines qualitative and quantitative data derived from 54 interviews with representatives of extreme right organizations in six European countries (Austria, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, and Spain) and the USA with a formalized Web content analysis of 336 right-wing websites. We will compare different types of right-wing groups which compose the radical right family (from political parties to associations), underlining the main differences and similarities across groups and across countries.     

Crossing Party Lines: Volatility and Ticket Splitting in Mexico (1994–2000)

This article aims to amplify our portrait of the Mexican electorate by examining the ways in which Mexican electors distributed their votes among the parties during 1994–2000, both over successive elections (volatility) and in the same election (ballot splitting). Aggregate and survey data revealed that Mexicans engaged in these two forms of electoral behaviour frequently, indicators of an electorate in flux. Regression analysis indicated that, contrary to the expectation that the politically sophisticated differentiated their votes, virtually all parts of Mexican society were equally likely to switch parties and split tickets.     

Bridging the ideological space: A cross‐national analysis of the distance of party switching

Scholars have investigated the characteristics of volatile voters ever since the first voter surveys were carried out and they have paid specific attention to the role of political sophistication on vote switching. Nevertheless, the exact nature of this relationship is still unclear. With increasing volatility over the past decades this question has furthermore grown in relevance. Is the growing unpredictability of elections mostly driven by sophisticated voters making well‐considered choices or is the balance of power in the hands of unsophisticated ‘floating voters’? Several scholars have argued that even under conditions of increasing volatility switching is still mostly confined to changes to ideologically close parties. Most researchers, however, have used rather crude measures to investigate this ‘leap’ between parties. To advance research in this field, this article directly models the ideological distance bridged by volatile voters when investigating the link between political sophistication and volatility. This is done using Comparative Study of Electoral systems (CSES) data that encompass a broad sample of recent parliamentary elections worldwide. Results indicate that voters with an intermediate level of political knowledge are most likely to switch overall. When taking into account the ideological distance of party switching, however, the confining impact of political knowledge on the vote choices made is clearly dominant, resulting in a linear decrease of the distance bridged as voters become more knowledgeable.     

当前个人极端暴力事件研究分析———以“失意群体”为视角简

在社会转型的特殊历史时期,“失意群体”已成为当前我国个人极端暴力事件的主要制造者。“失意群体”制造的个人极端暴力事件背后,是社会结构剧烈变动所造成的一系列社会失范现象,以及由此引发的个人心理、行为的失调及社会控制功能的弱化,并在此基础上产生背离性越轨行为。基于默顿的越轨社会学理论,对“失意群体”的疏导与调控亟需从根本上消融“失意群体”产生的社会基础,即对收入调节制度、社会流动机制、社会保障制度、利益表达机制、法律救济途径等进行再建构,以达到利益的均衡、社会的稳定和谐。同时,要充分发挥社会控制的综合协作功能,强化多元社会控制,并采取更有针对性的化解策略,以逐步减少此类事件发生的概率。     

The three stages of the anti-incumbency vote: Retrospective economic voting in young and established democracies

Economic prosperity is the best recipe for an incumbent government to be re-elected. However, the financial crisis was significantly more consequential for governing parties in young rather than in established democracies. This article introduces the age of democracy as a contextual explanation which moderates the degree to which citizens vote retrospectively. It shows a curvilinear effect of the age of democracy on retrospective economic voting. In a first stage after the transition to democracy, reform governments suffer from a general anti-incumbency effect, unrelated to economic performance. In a second step, citizens in young democracies relate the legitimacy of democratic actors to their economic performance rather than to procedural rules, and connect economic outcomes closely to incumbent support. As democracies mature, actors profit from a reservoir of legitimacy, and retrospective voting declines. Empirically, these hypotheses are corroborated by data on vote change and economic performance in 59 democracies worldwide, over 25 years.     

Understanding the Accumulation of Local Government Savings: A Dynamic Analysis

Government savings can be a conundrum that perplexes taxpayers. Excessive savings indicate that taxpayers either pay unnecessarily high taxes, or they do not receive adequate returns on services. Insufficient savings leave government officials little financial flexibility. The Great Recession and its aftermath have renewed interest in understanding government savings. This article uses dynamic panel modeling to analyze the determinants of municipal discretionary savings. Results show that risk factors are the primary drivers of municipal savings, and high-risk factors have greater impact on the amount of savings. This finding confirms organization theory’s view of savings as a crucial buffer against risk.     

Patterns of intra-election volatility: the impact of political knowledge*

One key trend changing political environments across advanced industrial democracies is increasing electoral volatility. Despite extensive research, at the individual level we still know relatively little about the mechanisms behind electoral volatility during election campaigns, including the impact of political knowledge. Against this background and based on a four-wave panel study in the context of the 2014 Swedish national election, the purpose of this paper is to investigate (a) patterns of intra-election volatility and the impact of (b) political knowledge on patterns of electoral volatility. Distinguishing between party alienation, crystallization, wavering, reinforcement, and conversion, among other things, findings show some effects from political knowledge on patterns of electoral volatility but only for acquired political knowledge.     

日本对外贸易条件及其波动性检验

本文研究了1960～2009年日本对外贸易条件的发展过程,并将其分为三个主要阶段,同时结合日本经济发展的大致轨迹分析了对外贸易条件变动的原因。并进一步探讨了食品、纺织、化学、金属等6类主要产品部门的贸易条件及其发展过程。通过对贸易条件方程式进行分解,将对外贸易条件波动分为绝对贸易条件效应和相对贸易条件效应,并利用方差分解的方法分析了日本对外贸易条件波动的原因。结合日本对外贸易条件变动的历程和我国的现实,提出了加强科技创新、提升产品附加值,促进产业结构优化和主导产业升级,建立完善对外贸易预警机制和稳定大宗商品供给和价格波动等建议。