金融危机下中东欧转型模式再评估

新兴市场国家经济与政治体制转型是转型问题研究的焦点,而中东欧国家的转型模式也作为一个范例持续得到来自理论和实证研究上的关注.本研究以金融危机发生、演化为背景,旨在检测金融危机背景下中东欧国家的整体经济表现与金融市场表现,并通过分析对国际学术界公认的"转型优等生"中东欧国家的转型模式进行再评估和反思.     

Privatised Keynesianism: An Unacknowledged Policy Regime

There have now been two successive policy regimes since the Second World War that have temporarily succeeded in reconciling the uncertainties and instabilities of a capitalist economy with democracy's need for stability for people's lives and capitalism's own need for confident mass consumers. The first of these was the system of public demand management generally known as Keynesianism. The second was not, as has often been thought, a neo-liberal turn to pure markets, but a system of markets alongside extensive housing and other debt among low- and medium-income people linked to unregulated derivatives markets. It was a form of privatised Keynesianism. This combination reconciled capitalism's problem, but in a way that eventually proved unsustainable. After its collapse there is debate over what will succeed it. Most likely is an attempt to re-create it on a basis of corporate social responsibility.     

中国养老保险统筹层次的改革路径与发展方向探讨

从国外经验出发,养老保险立法先行、确立时间表,通过合适的基金运作模式,各级政府的财政责任分担机制,养老保险的垂直管理和基金预算管理制度,以及历史债务和做实个人账户机制,用"三步走"的方式,先实现省级统筹,然后建立全国统一预算,分省余缺调剂的方式,逐步过渡到全国统收统支的模式,这是适合目前中国现状和社会保障未来战略发展的选择。     

The Catalytic Effect of IMF Lending: Evidence from Sectoral FDI Data

Our study contributes to the search for the elusive catalytic effect of International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending on inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). Recent scholarship has found that the catalytic effect is conditional on political regime and program stringency. We contribute to this literature by developing and testing a theory which describes how the catalytic effect also varies by economic sector. This is a departure from existing studies, which have tended to focus on aggregate FDI flows after crises. Our findings corroborate previous research, which finds that in general IMF lending has a substantial and negative effect on FDI. However, we find that the negative effect is concentrated in sectors that are highly dependent on external capital and have low sunk costs in the host country. Our findings are robust to several alternative explanations common in IMF literature, namely the importance of IMF program design and the ability of governments to make credible commitments to reform. Substantively, our findings suggest that investors are more likely to use IMF lending as an escape hatch in countries where FDI is dependent on external capital and has low sunk costs.     

Senkt New Public Management die Verwaltungsausgaben in den Schweizer Kantonen? Eine empirische Analyse über zwei Dekaden

In light of the growing public spending in many regions of the world, this study scrutinizes relevant determinants of core public administration expenditure at the cantonal level in Switzerland, focusing particularly on New Public Management (NPM) reforms. The empirical study comprises all 26 cantons in the period from 1993 through 2014 and uses both cross‐sectional and longitudinal analytical methods. In addition to NPM, we control for various variables related to political parties, institutions, socioeconomics and culture. The results show no clear relationship between NPM reforms and expenditure, although such reforms were often intended to cut costs. Our explanation for this finding is that NPM as a concept is rather inconsistent. Various control variables are either positively or negatively related with expenditure. All in all, our findings suggest that public expenditure is still mostly determined by politics and can only be influenced by administrative reforms within certain narrow limits.     

国外教育公共服务改革成效与启示

从政府教育公共服务职能、公共教育的财政投入、重视基础教育事业的发展、实施教育绩效评估、完善教育公共服务多元化体系以及加强职业技术教育等方面介绍了国外有关教育公共服务的具体做法与经验,为推进我国教育公共服务的发展提供参考借鉴。     

构造我国多元化的金融监管体系

我国金融监管的历史与发达国家相比还较短,在监管信息的采集、监管法规的建设、监管人才的培养和业务知识的更新等方面都亟待加强和完善.借鉴发达国家金融监管的成功经验,最重要的是构筑立体多元化的金融监管体系,而目前要抓好银行监管观念创新,健全金融监管机制,设置防范金融风险,建立银行内部控制体系,加强国际金融业监管的交流与合作.     

国际货币体系改革与全球金融安全机制构建:关联与问题JP〗*

国际货币体系是全球金融安全机制构建的制度基础,从国际货币体系改革分析其与全球金融安全机制构建之间的关联性具有重要的政策含义。国际货币体系改革与全球金融安全网构建具有内在的逻辑关联。国际货币体系风险处置和危机应对功能使得全球金融稳定和安全具有了基础保障;国际货币体系对于流动性管理的重视和全球流动性管理机制建设有利于保持全球流动性的稳定;国际汇率协调有利于国际收支失衡改善和汇率基本稳定;国际货币体系改革还争取通过机制安排来弱化货币中心国的政策外溢效应;国际货币体系的治理结构改革是全球金融安全体系的基础保障之一。但是,国际货币体系改革与全球金融安全机制构建面临着诸如国际货币体系安全的内生矛盾、全球金融安全体系短板、全球与区域金融安全网络的迭代以及改革泛政治化等问题。基于国际货币体系与全球金融安全的内在关联,应在促进布雷顿森林机构的改革、构建全球金融安全网、建立流动性管理机制、推进超主权货币建设、深化区域货币合作五个方面,推进全球金融安全体系的建设,保障全球金融稳定。     

对影子银行加强监管的国际金融法制改革

2008年金融危机的产生与游离于监管体系之外的影子银行的崩溃密不可分。在后危机时代,国际社会金融监管改革中很重要的一个方面即是加强对影子银行的监管。美欧等发达金融体已纷纷采取多种改革办法加强对其监管。以金融稳定理事会为代表的国际组织亦对影子银行监管进行研究,并形成了相关建议。影子银行对金融体系带来的主要威胁是系统性风险和监管套利,改革现有金融监管法制的重点也在于此。我国应当积极参与此方面的国际金融法制改革,并适时加强国内的法制建设。     

关于金融犯罪《刑法》分类的理性思考

我国金融犯罪分类在理论上的争议主要是围绕对金融诈骗罪独立设节的必要性与合理性问题展开的,在明晰金融诈骗犯罪立法沿革背景下,基于对犯罪客体概念的重申和犯罪客体的犯罪化与犯罪分类机能的认知,我国金融诈骗犯罪独立设节虽然能突出国家对该类犯罪的重视,但是违背了我国以同类客体作为《刑法》分则章节设置的标准。从实然的法规范和应然的法体系视角来看,应将其纳入《破坏金融管理秩序罪》一节中;从应然的目的性视角来审视,未来《刑法》进行补正解释或将其纳入《财产犯罪》一章也许更具正当性与合理性,也是对我国国权主义刑法向民权主义刑法转变的有力回应。