Continuity and change in Russia's policy toward Central and Eastern Europe

The accession of the CEE states to NATO and the European Union has put an end to the geopolitical ambiguity and implicit insecurity in the region between Russia and the so-called ‘Old Europe’. Instead of being an area of great powers' rivalry, elements of ‘buffer belts’ lacking meaningful strategic options, objects of raw Nazi-Soviet deals, or zones under Russian occupation and domination, the three Baltic States and the Visegrad group countries became full-fledged members of the European Union and were given NATO's security guarantees. By the middle of the 2000s, one would conclude that traditional geopolitics had ended in this region.However, the changes in the strategic situation in CEE have not changed the deep rooted moving forces and long-term strategic goals of the Russian policy toward the region. Moscow seeks to have the position, as its official rhetoric says, of an ‘influential centre of a multipolar world’ that would be nearly equal to the USA, China, or the EU. With this in view Moscow seeks for the establishment of its domination over the new independent states of the former USSR and for the formation of a sphere of influence for itself in Central Eastern Europe. If it achieves these goals, then Europe may return once again to traditional geopolitics fraught with great power rivalries and permanent instabilities radiating far beyond CEE borders.Yet a few questions remain. Has Russia come to the conclusion that attempting to restore its privileged position of influence in Central-Eastern Europe is wrong? Has Russia enough power to threaten the CEE countries? How credible are NATO's security guarantees? How may Russian behavior in CEE affect a wider European geopolitical context? These questions are appropriate in the light of Russia's ‘resurgence’ as a revanchist power and because Russia is, and most probably will remain in the next five to ten years, a weighty economic and strategic factor in areas along the Western borders of the former USSR.     

Portfolio Allocation or Policy Horizons? Determinants of Coalition Formation in Danish Local Government

It is widely assumed that policy considerations are important when parties form government coalitions. But if this is so, and if coalitions are negotiated in multi-dimensional policy spaces with no majority parties, then a rapid turn-over of coalitions should be observed, cf. the chaos theorem. However, we rarely witness this. Here we analyse two of the most prominent theories that address this puzzle: Laver and Shepsle's portfolio allocation model; and Warwick's policy horizon hypothesis. We do not analyse the ‘usual suspects’ (i.e. national government formations in Europe), but present a new empirical testing ground: Danish local governments. We rely on Laver and Shepsle's Winset programme to identify ‘strong parties’ in the portfolio allocation model but develop a new measure of Warwick's policy horizons that better deals with problems of multi-dimensionality. In a conditional logit analysis of survey data from 3000 local councillors, we find support for the policy horizons model, but not for the portfolio allocation model.     

A Genealogy of Radical Islam

A genealogy of the radical ideas that underline al-Qaeda"s justification for violence shows that the development of jihadi thought over the past several decades is characterized by the erosion of critical constraints used to limit warfare and violence in classical Islam. This erosion is illustrated by the evolution of jihadi arguments related to apostasy and waging jihad at home, global jihad, civilian targeting, and suicide bombings.     

Intercountry Adoption from Guatemala and the United States

Abstract

On October 6, 2000, President Clinton signed the Inter-country Adoption Act of 2000 (H.R. 2909), which represents the United States' implementation of the 1993 Hague Convention on Protection of Children and Co-operation in Respect on Intercountry Adoption (Joint Council on International Children's Services, 2000). The Ratification of this international treaty came about as increasing attention was brought to the need for greater oversight of Intercountry adopters both into and out of the United States. Over the past decade, the number of United States citizens adopting children from overseas has more than doubled. There are also an increasing number of children who are United States citizens that are being adopted by citizens of other countries. Both the United States and Guatemala have established policies of participation in Inter-country adoption as sending nations primarily to address the problem of how to best care for children permanently separated from their families of origin. However, further analysis indicated that there are problems that these policies indirectly address which are much more complex. The purpose of this paper is to describe and analyze these policies.     

Toward a measurement tool for the monitoring of media diversity and pluralism in South Africa: A public-centred approach

Abstract

This article responds to recent debates within South African media politics regarding the diversity and transformation of the print sector in the country, by suggesting a necessary refocus of previously used methods of measuring media diversity and proposing a more audience-centred approach. This audience-centred method is discussed with regard to meeting the demands of the normative understanding of media diversity, where the media are viewed as central to an individual's formulation of opinions and ideas, thus rendering the media – and particularly the news media – vital in fostering an enabled and informed citizenry. The argument proposes a bottom-up instead of a top-down methodology for measuring media diversity, by placing the primary focus on the public as the starting point, rather than the end point of the analysis, and validating this position through the normative view of the media's role in assisting citizens to formulate personal views. The article concludes by listing four key areas in which current debates on media diversity in South Africa should be realigned and refocused, including at a parliamentary level.     

European entry into the multinational Sinai force and observers

Nicolas Sarkozy's presidency presented a mixed record on the issues of Muslim immigration and integration. On the one hand, his administration took novel and constructive steps to advance the integration of Muslim immigrants into French society, notably through the granting of unprecedented official recognition and institutional representation to Islam in the country. On the other, by placing the immigration issue at the centre of his 2012 re-election strategy, he overshadowed and undermined the effectiveness of these integrative policies. Given the country's worsening economic outlook and rising unemployment, immigration is therefore likely to remain as salient and difficult an issue under the new Hollande administration as it was under Sarkozy's.     

Internet of things – Governance quo vadis?

The Internet of Things (IoT) as an emerging global Internet-based information architecture facilitating the exchange of goods and services is gradually developing. While the technical aspects are being discussed in detail a legal framework does not exist so far. The first supranational organization trying to work out an IoT governance framework has been the European Commission by appointing a large group of experts to examine the relevant aspects of a possible IoT governance regime. In the meantime, however, the activities have been degraded. Nevertheless, even if the differences between the IoT and the Internet have been overestimated at the beginning, many elements of the IoT differ in part from the corresponding problems in the Internet. Therefore, an analysis of the major IoT governance issues (legitimacy, transparency, accountability, anticompetitive behavior) seems to be worthwhile to conduct.     

一种面向利益分析的政策研究方法

构建社会主义和谐社会,对政策制定的科学化和民主化提出了新的更高的要求,即必须更加重视各方利益的表达和协调,以实现共赢。本文在综合分析软科学和政策科学两个相对独立的学科现状的基础上,讨论当前政策研究在利益分析上存在的不足及其根源,指出政策研究需要超越先前主流的实证主义范式,发展面向利益分析的理论和方法。针对我国政策制定中利益分析和协调的现实需求,本文介绍了一种基于讨论式博弈和综合集成支持的公共政策实验方法(EPRM),论述了该方法的基本思路、运用过程和若干焦点问题。     

减轻农民负担的公共政策分析

党和政府对减轻农民负担采取了许多公共政策,从政策实施过程来看,农民负担的增减交替进行、农民负担增也政府减亦政府、农民负担项目日益合法化、减轻农民负担的政策制订多落实少;从政府措施上看,减轻农民负担为改革开放创造了有利条件,但也有不足之处,主要体现在:措施“单兵突进”、农业税等据实征收不可操作、只给政策基层无法持久执行。减轻农民负担公共政策再决策应该做到:构建城乡统一的公共财政体制、构建财权与事权统一的公共产品供给体制、构建乡村良性发展的制度变迁机制。     

Family Group Conferencing: An Indigenous Practice Approach to Compliance With the Indian Child Welfare Act

Native American children are perpetually over-represented in the U.S. child welfare system, despite the creation of the Indian Child Welfare Act. This article examines the use of family group conferencing, particularly initiated in Indian child welfare systems, as a practice method to reduce the disproportionality in this area.