地区竞争、选举政治与“一带一路”债务可持续性——剖析所谓“债务陷阱外交”论

从2017年开始,国际舆论较为频繁地使用"债务陷阱外交"描述中国"一带一路"倡议背后的战略目的。从经济角度衡量,中国给"一带一路"沿线国家的贷款条件并不苛刻,且在中国推出"一带一路"之前,大量中低收入国家的债务负担就已经出现明显增长趋势,并不存在"一带一路"引发系统性"债务陷阱"的问题。因此,"债务陷阱外交"论缺乏经济基础。进而可以发现,东道国及其所处的地区政治环境在"债务陷阱外交"论产生与传播的过程中扮演了重要角色。为此,本文构建了一个地区环境与国内政治选举相互作用的分析框架,通过比较案例研究分析了"债务陷阱外交"论在典型国家出现、传播与发挥影响的机制。"一带一路"项目往往与东道国执政者"政治捆绑",国内权力更迭导致的国家发展战略变动,为该国政府改变自身对"一带一路"的政策选择创造了空间,其所处的地区政治环境也显著影响政策变化的幅度。中国在推进"一带一路"建设时,既要与东道国进行双边互动,充分重视东道国国内不同力量的博弈,也要注意到沿线国家所处地区政治环境对该国能否持续参与"一带一路"构成制约。我们需要以一种更加多维的视角进行思考,超越传统的紧盯美国的对外政策模式,为"一带一路"的顺利实施营造更加良好的政治环境。     

Time for a haircut: political regimes and sovereign debt restructurings

ABSTRACT

Conventional wisdom claims that reputation leads sovereign states to full debt repayment. However, defaults are recurrent, some debtor countries take a lot of time to end them, and some extract costly concessions from investors. This article argues that these differences are largely explained by the political regimes in the borrowing countries. While previous research examines whether democracies make more credible commitments, we analyze how democracies affect bargaining with foreign investors after a default occurs. Democracies, with their institutional checks, electoral uncertainty, greater transparency, and public deliberation, make swift decision-making harder, create incentives to pander and posture, and give leverage to minimize the win set of viable agreements. We test our theory on a comprehensive dataset of debt restructurings with private creditors in the period 1975–2017. The event history analysis indicates that democracies experience longer restructurings and the double-hurdle regression analysis shows that democracies obtain larger creditor losses. Further, there is interesting variation among democracies and autocracies. Our findings suggest that political regimes are crucial to explaining why cooperation fails in international debt markets.     

Fiscal Consolidation and Australia's Public Debt

Australia has experienced one of the fastest growing public debt levels in the world post‐Global Financial Crisis due to a series of large federal budget deficits driven by high government spending. In this paper we examine the balance sheet implications of this escalating public debt, before proposing some macro‐fiscal objectives for determining its sustainable level. These objectives are to (i) restore the federal government's solvency; (ii) eliminate foreign public debt; and (iii) achieve budgetary balance over the business cycle. Empirically, we first examine how much fiscal consolidation is required for debt stabilisation at current levels, before considering what sized budget balances are needed to achieve the target debt to GDP ratios consistent with the proposed objectives. The results show that no target debt to GDP level consistent with the optimal levels will be met on current fiscal settings in the medium term. This implies significantly greater fiscal consolidation is required to minimise future fiscal risk.     

论网络赌博犯罪的侦查困境与对策

网络赌博犯罪活动既有传统赌博犯罪的专业性、隐蔽性、手段多样性等特点,又利用了互联网跨地区、跨国界、便捷快速的技术条件,而呈现出虚拟性、瞬间性、高科技性、严重社会危害性等新特征。这些新特征致使公安机关侦查网络赌博违法犯罪的行动面临诸多困境,比如犯罪行为难以发现、取证比较困难等。为有力打击网络赌博犯罪,应构建网络赌博犯罪的侦查协作格局、建立反网络赌博犯罪的情报网络、健全对网络赌博犯罪的监控体系、加强网络赌博犯罪电子证据的取证等。     

博弈的伦理意蕴

博弈中的人们追求利益的最大化,但是博弈中也有伦理道德的存在。博彝中的行为者只有遵循道德法则行事,尊重自由、平等、民主以及正义的原则,使博弈双方互为目的和手段,这样才能达到共赢,实现自我价值和共同幸福的目标。对博弈与伦理的这种关系进行探讨,有助于我们更深刻地认识博弈中的伦理意蕴,更好地实现个人价值、个人利益与社会公共道德、公共利益的统一。     

我国民事简易程序的重塑

我国民事简易程序的重塑在完善民事简易程序的若干种方案中 ,文章一方面肯定相关立法的进一步修订的做法 ,另一方面反对盲目的引进小额诉讼制度 ,主张借鉴国外简易判决的做法 ,与现行民事简易程序一起构成我国广义的民事简易程序系统。     

地方政府债务:现状、成因与对策

文章对我国地方政府债务历程进行了回顾,分析了地方政府债务成因的发展变化,探讨了地方负债的融资行为风险对财政、金融、社会带来的不良后果,最后提出解决我国地方政府债务的根本出路在于地方政府举债债券化,应采用总体部署、阶段实施的解决方案,最终使地方政府债务走向透明化、法制化、市场化、规范化的道路。     

由主权负债危机引发对地方政府过度负债的思考

世界金融危机爆发后,中国经济经过结构调整,内生动力不断增强并带动区域经济的快速增长。与此同时,地方政府超常规融资积聚的风险隐患也在迅速增加,巨额的地方政府负债极有可能成为诱发新一轮危机的重要因素,成为制约中国经济发展的主要瓶颈。弄清地方政府过度负债的主要风险,衡量地方政府的负债能力,界定风险转变为危机的临界点,明确地方政府适度负债规模水平是稳妥地化解地方政府过度负债风险,防范危机的重要途径。     

Partial Agonist Therapy in Schizophrenia: Relevance to Diminished Criminal Responsibility

Abstract: Pathological gambling (PG), classified in the DSM‐IV among impulse control disorders, is defined as inappropriate, persistent gaming for money with serious personal, family, and social consequences. Offenses are frequently committed to obtain money for gambling. Pathological gambling, a planned and structured behavioral disorder, has often been described as a complication of dopamine agonist treatment in patients with Parkinson’s disease. It has never been described in patients with schizophrenia receiving dopamine agonists. We present two patients with schizophrenia, previously treated with antipsychotic drugs without any suggestion of PG, who a short time after starting aripiprazole, a dopamine partial agonist, developed PG and criminal behavior, which totally resolved when aripiprazole was discontinued. Based on recent advances in research on PG and adverse drug reactions to dopamine agonists in Parkinson’s disease, we postulate a link between aripiprazole and PG in both our patients with schizophrenia and raise the question of criminal responsibility.     

上市公司股权集中度、制衡度与债务期限结构选择

与已有的债务期限结构的研究潜在的假设企业管理者和股东利益完全一致不同,本文基于股权集中和股权制衡对二者利益一致性的影响,在杠杆率和债务期限内生的假定条件下,通过对分别以"债务期限"和"债务杠杆"为因变量的联立方程模型进行2SLS检验,运用中国上市公司的数据样本来研究股权集中度和股权制衡度对债务期限结构的影响。本文的研究不仅是对债务期限结构研究的有利补充,也为我们从公司治理角度思考上市公司的资本结构选择提供了经验证据。