INCENTIVES FOR COLLECTIVE DEVIANCE: GROUP SIZE AND CHANGES IN PERCEIVED RISK,COST, AND REWARD*

Research has demonstrated that the presence of others shifts decision‐making about risky/deviant behavior. One reason for this shift could be changes in the anticipated experience of formal sanctions, informal costs, and rewards. To investigate this possibility, this study conducted two randomized controlled trials with hypothetical vignettes, in which a range of how many other people were also involved in the criminal act defined the treatment conditions. Across two samples of university students (Ns = 396 and 263), the results revealed that as the size of the involved group increased, the anticipated experience of sanction risk and several informal social costs associated with engaging in the act decreased, and the anticipated experience of two rewards increased. Additional analyses suggest that, with one exception in each data set, these changes are not only tied to the solo/group distinction.     

Repeatability and reproducibility of comparison decisions by firearms examiners

In a comprehensive study to assess various aspects of the performance of qualified forensic firearms examiners, volunteer examiners compared both bullets and cartridge cases fired from three different types of firearms. They rendered opinions on each comparison according to the Association of Firearm & Tool Mark Examiners (AFTE) Range of Conclusions, as Identification, Inconclusive (A, B, or C), Elimination, or Unsuitable. In this part of the study, comparison sets used previously to characterize the overall accuracy of examiners were blindly resubmitted to examiners to assess the repeatability (105 examiners; 5700 comparisons of bullets and cartridge cases) and reproducibility (191 examiners of bullets, 193 of cartridge cases; 5790 comparisons) of firearms examinations. Data gathered using the prevailing AFTE Range were also recategorized into two hypothetical scoring systems. Consistently positive differences between observed agreement and expected agreement indicate that the repeatability and reproducibility of examiners exceed chance agreement. When averaged over bullets and cartridge cases, the repeatability of comparison decisions (involving all five levels of the AFTE Range) was 78.3% for known matches and 64.5% for known nonmatches. Similarly averaged reproducibility was 67.3%% for known matches and 36.5% for known nonmatches. For both repeatability and reproducibility, many of the observed disagreements were between a definitive and inconclusive category. Examiner decisions are reliable and trustworthy in the sense that identifications are unlikely when examiners are comparing non-matching items, and eliminations are unlikely when they are comparing matching items.     

外国假释决定模式与程序介评

由于法律传统的差异,不同法系的国家对假释权性质及归属的认识存在不同的观点．并由此形成了三种不同的假释决定模式。从应然和理性的角度说,假释权应属于一种行政权．由狱政部门或其隶属的独立的假释委员会行使。国外的假释决定程序一般包括假释的申请、建议的审查、假释审理或听证、作出假释决定、对假释决定的救济和监督等程序。     

Abnormal Daily Temperature and Concern about Climate Change Across the United States

The relatively low level of concern about climate change among Americans has important implications for climate policy. While many studies have examined individual characteristics associated with climate change attitudes, fewer studies have considered the effects of environmental conditions on such attitudes. Here, we use two national samples of American adults to explore the impact of abnormal daily temperatures on levels of concern about climate change. We test the hypotheses that (1) abnormally warm temperatures, and (2) both abnormally warm and abnormally cool temperatures are associated with higher levels of concern. Using a generalized ordinal logit, we find that the quadratic form of deviation from mean temperature on the date of the survey is significantly associated with higher levels of concern, thus supporting the second hypothesis. We discuss several theoretical frameworks that may explain this result including availability bias, mental models, and implicit stimuli, and the implications for climate policy.     

地方政府决策中的公民利益汇聚模式探究

公共政策是对公共资源的一种权威性分配,利益取向是资源分配的重要依据,公民利益则是地方政府决策的源流。因此,研究地方政府决策中的公民利益汇聚模式,探讨当前模式存在的阻滞因素及相应对策,有助于为地方政府实现决策的民主化和科学化提供理论借鉴。     

Political knowledge,the decision calculus,and proximity voting

This paper employs an online voting simulation to examine how the vote decision process affects the vote choice. We focus on proximity voting, an empirically powerful but informationally demanding model of voter behavior. Holding contextual factors constant, we find that more politically knowledgeable individuals engage in a deeper and broader decision process prior to casting their ballot, and, in turn, a more detailed decision process boosts the likelihood that one will vote proximately. In addition, we find that detailed decision processes have a stronger link with proximity voting among the most knowledgeable individuals, who are able to skillfully engage with new information.     

Effects of pretrial juror bias,strength of evidence and deliberation process on juror decisions: new validity evidence of the Juror Bias Scale scores

This study examines the validity of the Juror Bias Scale scores in relation to the mock juror decisions reached in two real life homicide cases before and after the deliberation process. The judicial cases used varied in terms of the ambiguity of the evidence presented at both trials. The WLS methodology for statistical modelling of categorical data was used to analyse data. The findings indicated that the Juror Bias Scale scores successfully predict the verdicts and other related questions before and after deliberations in the case with ambiguous evidence. Furthermore, deliberations caused a generalisation effect on the pretrial juror bias in such a case, and enhanced the differences between defense-biased and prosecution-biased jurors in the verdicts delivered after deliberations. The implications of these findings are discussed in relation to the use of pretrial juror bias questionnaires in jury selection.     

Moving beyond Ford,Atkins, and Roper: jurors' attitudes toward the execution of the elderly and the physically disabled

Abstract

The central purpose of the current study is to correlate level of support for the death penalty, death-qualification status, attitudes toward the death penalty (ATDP), legal authoritarianism (RLAQ (Revised Legal Attitudes Questionnaire)), and demographic indices with attitudes toward the execution of the elderly and the physically disabled. Two hundred and fifty residents of the 12th Judicial Circuit in Florida completed a booklet that contained the following: (1) one question that measured their level of support for the death penalty; (2) one question that categorized their death-qualification status; (3) the ATDP; (4) the RLAQ; (5) 20 questions that measured participants' attitudes toward the execution of the elderly and the physically disabled (EEPD); and (6) standard demographic questions. Results indicated that level of support for the death penalty, death-qualification status, attitudes toward the death penalty, legal authoritarianism, and demographic indices were significantly related to four components of the EEPD. Legal implications and applications are discussed.     

Striking a pose: Transparency and position taking in the Council of the European Union

In recent years, transparency (or the lack thereof) has become a central concern of the European Union and its attempts to increase the democratic legitimacy of the legislative decision‐making process. The claim regularly made is that increasing transparency increases the potential for holding decision makers to account. This study investigates the manner in which transparency in the decision‐making process affects the policy positions taken by negotiators at the outset of negotiations. The findings presented suggest that increasing transparency tends to lead to polarisation of negotiations, with negotiators taking more extreme positions when they know that their positions can be observed by outside parties. The implication of this result is that advocates of transparency should be aware that there is an inherent trade‐off between increasing transparency, on the one hand, and increasing the incentives to grandstand during negotiations, on the other.     

The effects of uncertainty and sex in a crisis simulation game

We conducted an experimental test of spiraling behavior, sex differences, and uncertainty in a simulated crisis situation. We investigated the relationship between weapons acquisition and the likelihood of engaging in aggressive behavior, such as going to war. The sample included 100 male and female subjects who participated in a crisis simulation in same‐sex dyads; each student was instructed to role play the leader of a country in conflict with another leader over a nearby island replete with newly discovered oil resources. Participants were randomly assigned to stimulus materials that manipulated the certainty of the information they received about their partner's force structure. In four cycles of decision‐making, each participant made procurement decisions, took an action related to the conflict, including decisions about going to war, completed questionnaires on characteristics such as the hostility and trustworthiness of themselves and their opponents, and wrote messages to the other member of the pair. The results of the study demonstrate a strong relationship between weapons acquisition and hostility. In addition, we found large and robust sex differences, showing that men are much more likely than women to acquire weapons and engage in aggressive behavior at every stage. There was no effect of uncertainty on either arms procurement or aggression.