当前南海形势及走向

南海问题的实质是南沙岛礁主权和海域管辖权争议,涉及“五国六方”。近年来,受美国全球战略调整等多重因素的影响,南海问题持续升温,有关争端国不断加大权益声索和实际管控力度,地区局势愈演愈烈。南海是我国国防安全海上屏障、发展制海权的重要战略出海口、经济和能源安全的海上运输要道及未来的能源和资源基地。新阶段,南海局势将继续保持升温态势,因此我国需要从国家总体发展战略全局出发,把握并延长战略机遇期,通盘考虑国际和国内影响因素,长远谋划妥善处理南海问题战略和战术决策,有效化解面临的巨大挑战,确保整体利益最大化。     

一战后美国在德国赔偿问题上的政策演变

由于美国的政治和军事力量相对欧洲协约国处于弱势,美国在巴黎和会上在赔偿问题上向英法做出了较大让步,致使赔偿问题趋于复杂。在20世纪20年代初期,美国放弃了在赔偿问题上的发言权。从20世纪20年代中期开始,从维护自身的利益出发美国再次介入德国赔偿问题。研究一战后美国在德国赔偿问题上的政策演变可以使我们对美国外交政策制定的背景、20世纪20年代美国外交政策的特点有比较清楚的认识,从而加深对美国外交政策本质的认识。     

热连轧带钢生产过程中的温度场模拟

温度是热连轧带钢生产中影响产品的组织和性能重要参数,采用ANSYS有限元对热连轧生产过程的温度场进行数值模拟。模拟结果表明:高压水除鳞对带钢温度场影响相当大,高压水除鳞后,带钢端部和表面温度显著下降,带钢中心的温度基本保持不变,表面和芯部温度梯度大,除鳞后在轧件内部热传导作用下,温度梯度越来越小,最后整个轧件除端部外温度趋于均匀。     

浅析我国公共突发事件应对机制不足及其完善

面对公共突发事件给国家和人民生命和财产造成重大损失的严峻形势,我国突发事件应对机制暴露出公共危机管理体制不健全、预警体系不完善、信息披露不透明、应对突发事件的法律不统一等弊端。完善我国公共突发事件应对机制应在管理机制、加强信息披露、加强公众危机教育和国际合作等方面作出努力。     

加入WTO对国内消费热点的影响

2002年以来,我国国民经济快速发展,城乡居民收入水平稳步提高,居民消费心理稳定,消费结构也随之升级。以住宅、汽车为主,以家居装饰、电脑电信、教育和旅游为辅的新一轮消费浪潮正在形成。加入WTO后,对消费热点将产生一定的影响。     

Electoral competition and the welfare state

The article investigates how parties compete over the welfare state by emphasising specific welfare state issues. The core argument is that two issue-specific factors determine how much parties emphasise individual welfare state issues: the character of policy problems related to the policy issues and the type of social risks involved. To test the argument, a new large-N dataset is employed, with election manifestos from Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The dataset contains information on how much parties have talked about health care, education, and labour market protection in national elections since 1980. With the data at hand, it is possible to provide the first systematic investigation of how parties compete for votes over the welfare state. The approach here is able to explain the empirical fact that health care is consistently receiving increased attention everywhere, while particularly labour market protection has witnessed a decline in attention.     

A Rising Tide? The Salience of Immigration and the Rise of Anti‐Immigration Political Parties in Western Europe

In this article, we consider the causes of the increase in voting for anti‐immigration parties in western Europe in the past decade. We first note that one of the most commonly assumed reasons for this increase is an associated increase in anti‐immigration sentiment, which we show is likely to be false. We also outline the major theoretical explanations, which we argue are likely to be incomplete. We then introduce our proposed explanation: these parties have benefitted from a sharp increase in the salience of immigration amongst some voters. We show that there are strong correlations over time between the salience of immigration and the polling of such parties in most western European countries. We argue that aspects of immigration in the last decade have activated pre‐existing opposition to immigration amongst a shrinking segment of the populations of western European states.     

幼女奸生子的抚养问题探析

幼女奸生子的抚养问题极为棘手，容易引发许多伦理纠纷和社会问题，亟待法律的规制。可是，我国有关非婚生子女抚养的立法却比较模糊、概括、缺乏可操作性，在实践中难以发挥作用。针对这一特殊情况，应当完善相关法律，构建以社会救助为主的抚养模式，以促进这一社会矛盾的妥善解决。     

POLICING CRIME AND DISORDER HOT SPOTS: A RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIAL*

Dealing with physical and social disorder to prevent serious crime has become a central strategy for policing. This study evaluates the effects of policing disorder, within a problem‐oriented policing framework, at crime and disorder hot spots in Lowell, Massachusetts. Thirty‐four hot spots were matched into 17 pairs, and one member of each pair was allocated to treatment conditions in a randomized block field experiment. The officers engaged “shallow” problem solving and implemented a strategy that more closely resembled a general policing disorder strategy rather than carefully designed problem‐oriented policing responses. Nevertheless, the impact evaluation revealed significant reductions in crime and disorder calls for service, and systematic observations of social and physical disorder at the treatment places relative to the control places uncovered no evidence of significant crime displacement. A mediation analysis of the isolated and exhaustive causal mechanisms that comprised the strategy revealed that the strongest crime‐prevention gains were generated by situational prevention strategies rather than by misdemeanor arrests or social service strategies.     

Negotiation and Discourse Analysis

Discourse analysis focuses on the ways that language and symbols shape interpretations of negotiators' identities, instrumental activity, and relationships. These meanings arise, in part, from language patterns that bargainers employ while they are involved in a negotiation. This article provides a brief overview of research findings on language use in six areas of negotiation: strategy, relational development, identity management, emotional expression, issue development, and framing. It also employs a case example of a real estate negotiation to illustrate how discourse patterns discursively construct the nature of risk, certainty, and loss–gain through framing and issue development.