When do parties emphasise extreme positions? How strategic incentives for policy differentiation influence issue importance

Parties have an incentive to take up extreme positions in order to achieve policy differentiation and issue ownership, and it would make sense for a party to stress these positions as well. These incentives are not the same for all issues and all parties but may be modified by other strategic conditions: party size, party system size, positional distinctiveness and systemic salience. Using manifesto‐based measures of salience and expert assessments of party positions, the findings in this article are that parties emphasise extreme positions if, first, they are relatively small in terms of vote share; second, the extreme position is distinctive from those of other parties; and third, other parties fail to emphasise the issue. These findings have consequences for our understanding of party strategies, party competition and the radicalisation of political debates.     

国家安全体系中的社会安全问题

社会安全问题是一个传统安全问题,也是古老的传统安全观曾经关注和重视的国家安全问题.在国家安全体系中,社会安全是构成国家安全的一个史前要素、原生要素、传统要素.在国家安全保障体系中,社会性保障也是一个重要方面.当前,为了解决日益突出的社会矛盾,保障社会安全和国家安全,就必须进行社会管理创新,把过去以维护社会稳定为重要目标的社会治安工作,推进到以确立社会公平正义为根本目标的社会管理工作层面.     

中关村知识产权发展问题浅析

作为中国首个国家自主创新示范区,中关村理应成为中国知识产权战略实施的桥头堡。但是,与国际知名园区相比,中关村的知识产权发展水平存在较大差距,与国内的深圳、浙江等地的知识产权发展水平相比,中关村的优势也并不明显,这一点与中关村集中国政治、经济、科技、教育等优势于一身的地位不相匹配。该文就中关村知识产权发展中存在的问题进行了剖析,并就提高中关村知识产权发展水平提出建议。     

犯罪热点研究的空间分析方法

随着犯罪的频繁发生,犯罪热点受到越来越多相关部门的关注。在此,应用不同的空间分析方法,研究犯罪热点的分布,提出预防犯罪的措施,以期为社会稳定提供参考。     

论农村换届选举的法律规制

选举是民主政治的基石。农村基层民主选举是农村基层民主建设的重要内容,搞好农村基层民主选举是建设稳定和谐、幸福的社会主义新农村重要举措。建立完善的农村选举制度和村务管理制度是有效防止少数人为追求非法利益,采取一些违法手段破坏农村的换届选举有力武器。     

The Impact of Hot Spots Policing on Collective Efficacy: Findings from a Randomized Field Trial

In disadvantaged neighborhoods, prior research has found reduced social cohesion and less willingness among residents to address disruptive behaviors and violations of social norms. This deficiency is commonly associated with higher levels of disorder and crime. Therefore, recent scholarship has begun to consider whether police can help foster collective efficacy, especially in places struggling with serious crime problems. Early results are somewhat mixed. Yet the cooperation hypothesis asserts that when neighborhood residents see police as a more viable and reliable resource, residents will be emboldened to exert informal social control to address problems. Over the last two decades, hot spots policing has been recognized as an effective method to reduce crime. At the same time, there have been few rigorous studies of whether this approach impacts collective efficacy at hot spots. To investigate this question, we conducted an experiment in 71 crime hot spots, comparing a collaborative problem solving versus a directed patrol (police presence) approach versus standard policing practices. Over time, a substantial increase in police presence did appear to promote modest improvements in collective efficacy. We attribute this finding to the cooperation hypothesis.     

浅析“热钱”流入对我国货币政策的影响和建议

中国是一个发展中的大国,需要一个相对稳定的国际国内金融环境,中国经济的稳定发展对亚洲和世界具有积极意义。“热钱”流入对我国经济的均衡发展、国际收支平衡、人民币汇率稳定及货币政策宏观调控的效果带来一定影响。因此,必须从我国实际出发,实行以市场供求为基础的、有管理的浮动汇率制度,继续保持人民币汇率稳定,积极探索完善人民币汇率形成机制,采取多种措施改善国际收支平衡状况,促进经济内外协调发展。     

When Do Issue Opinions Matter,and to Whom? The Determinants of Long‐Term Stability and Change in Party Choice in the 2003 Swiss Elections

While various studies have highlighted the short‐term importance of issue‐voting for party choice, little attention has so far been paid to its long‐term relevance. Relying on longitudinal data from the 2003 Swiss federal elections, we examine under what circumstances issue‐specific considerations affect stability and change in party choice. We postulate that the impact of issue‐specific considerations is likely to vary depending on a set of mediating factors. Analyzing four mechanisms of stability and change (reinforcement, activation, conversion, and demobilization), we find first that issues matter more when they are pressing, central, and polarizing. Furthermore, issue positions affect the vote more significantly for the parties that are more profiled on them. These results are in line with those on short‐term effects. However, they reveal a stronger influence of shifts in issue opinions in the long‐term than in the short‐term. Finally, we do not find any substantial variations in the effect of issue preferences across individual characteristics (political sophistication and party identification).     

The ‘New Right' Vote: An Analysis of the Gender Gap in the Vote Choice for the SVP

Studying the Swiss national elections 2003, we find a pronounced gender gap in the SVP vote ‐ women are significantly less likely to vote for this party than are men. In order to explain this gender gap, this article combines two innovative approaches. On the one hand, it links the literature on gender gaps with research on the New Right. On the other, it makes a distinction between the conditional and compositional effects of explanatory factors. Our analysis reveals that conditional effects are of greater relevance than compositional ones. Explanatory factors regularly applied in research on the New Right have a conditional effect inasmuch as they only have an effect on male voters, but cannot explain the behaviour of women. This, in turn, also highlights the importance of a gender‐specific focus for further research.