基于GTD的教育机构恐怖袭击实证分析及防范策略

在反恐形势日趋严峻的大环境下,教育机构已逐渐成为恐怖分子袭击的重点目标。基于GTD数据库中所收录的2009-2018年恐怖袭击的数据,以教育机构为研究对象,从教育机构恐怖袭击的发生数量、地域分布、袭击手段,以及所造成的后果等方面进行梳理,并对两个典型案例(两个国家的情况)进行分析,发现教育机构恐怖袭击主要有以下特点:袭击频发但呈下降趋势、袭击地域分布不平衡、袭击手段以爆炸为主袭击损失小但引起恐慌大等。对教育机构恐怖袭击,应从安保措施、情报预警、危险品管控以及宣传教育等方面加强防范。     

打破政策“黑箱”的制度设计——基于广州政策兑现实践的研究

如何打破政策“黑箱”是学界和社会关注的重要议题。以广州市政策兑现改革实践为例,探讨如何从制度设计层面来打开公共政策过程中的政策“黑箱”。研究发现,虽然公共政策过程是一个动态且复杂的过程,但是通过统筹政策制定和政策落地两端、主观要素客观化、模糊标准明确化、重塑政府流程等,能够形成确定的决策环境,控制非理性因素,约束自由裁量权,并压缩权力寻租空间,从而可以从源头消除政策“黑箱”的形成土壤。广州市政府政策兑现改革过程中,通过“输入—转化—输出”的制度框架设计,形成了从政策制定到政策执行再到政策结果与评估的政策闭环,并对政策兑现的相关责任单位、流程和时限都进行了严格把控,进而实现对政策“黑箱”内部决策要素的控制。从政策“黑箱”本身入手,破解政策“黑箱”难题,实现政策的阳光承诺和给付,最终形成极具特色和借鉴意义的广州模式。     

Promoting customer engagement: A new trend in utility regulation

This paper traces a new development in regulation that encourages utilities to engage more directly with their customers. We make four contributions: First, we perform a comprehensive analysis of how regulators are using customer engagement, and offer a simple model for understanding different customer engagement initiatives. Second, we review assessments of customer engagement. We find that there are no quantitative, empirically robust assessments of the effectiveness of customer engagement as a regulatory tool. Third, we develop two detailed case studies of an energy regulator and a water regulator that are in the forefront of customer engagement efforts. We find that there is no direct link between the engagement strategy used and the economic incentives received by a firm. Finally, we propose a framework for improving the customer engagement process. The new framework relies on microeconomics, modern tools of program evaluation, and supplying the regulated firm with direct incentives to engage with the customer.     

The Cosponsorship Patterns of Reserved Seat Legislators

This study analyzes the bill cosponsorship behavior of reserved seat legislators in the Pakistan National Assembly, where special legislative seats are reserved for women and religious minorities. It offers a critical case because two theories on reserved seat legislators—the theory of electoral incentives and the theory of institutional weakness—lead to opposite predictions about the extent to which such legislators will engage in bill cosponsorship, with the former (latter) predicting the negative (positive) effect of reserved seats. I find that women and minorities in reserved seats initiate a greater number of bills and cosponsor bills with a larger number of peers than nonreserved male legislators. Using network analysis, I also show that reserved legislators tend to play a role in bridging different partisan blocs of legislators within the cosponsorship network. These empirical patterns provide support to the theory of institutional weakness, rather than to the theory of electoral incentives.     

Reply to Mac Giolla and Ly (2019): On the reporting of Bayes factors in deception research

Bayes factors provide a continuous measure of evidence for one hypothesis (e.g., the null, H0) relative to another (e.g., the alternative, H1). Warmelink et al. (2019, Legal Criminol Psychol, 24, 258) reported Bayes factors alongside p‐values to draw inferences about whether the order of expected versus unexpected questions influenced the amount of details interviewees provided during an interview. Mac Giolla & Ly (2019) provided several recommendations to improve the reporting of Bayesian analyses and used Warmelink et al. (2019) as a concrete example. These included (I) not to over‐rely on cut‐offs when interpreting Bayes factors; (II) to rely less on Bayes factors, and switch to ‘nominal support’; and (III) to report the posterior distribution. This paper elaborates on their recommendations and provides two further suggestions for improvement. First, we recommend deception researchers report Robustness Regions to demonstrate the sensitivity of their conclusions to the model of H1 used. Second, we demonstrate a method that deception researchers can use to estimate, a priori, the sample size likely to be required to provide conclusive evidence.     

The Accuracy and Repeatability of Reconstructing Single Bullet Impacts Using the 2D Ellipse Method

When a bullet punctures a surface, it leaves behind a bullet impact, which can be analyzed in order to determine the origin and trajectory path from which a bullet was discharged using many different scientific methods to reconstruct a shooting scene. The purpose of the research was to test the accuracy and repeatability of reconstructing the impact angle of single bullet impacts using the ellipse method. The research was conducted by firing various calibers of ammunition into drywall panels positioned at varying angles of incidence from 88° until ricochet occurred. This was done in order to determine which caliber type and angle of incidence are most accurate and precise for reconstructing a shooting scene. The study examined four caliber types fired into drywall panels, with 5 repeated shots for each of the 11 angles of incidence (n = 220). Furthermore, 31 participants partook in the study to estimate a bullet impact angle of incidence utilizing the ellipse method. The results show that the best performance (accuracy and repeatability) is seen with the measurements of the 0.45 caliber ammunition. When angle of incidences is low (<64°), the performance (accuracy and repeatability) was seen to be better in all caliber ammunitions. Overall, the data provided for single bullet impacts deposited in drywall show that the ellipse method is useful in providing measurements for most crime scene reconstruction purposes and has also demonstrated that results vary depending on the type of ammunition, firearm, and angle of incidence being examined.     

New Approaches to Age Estimation Using Palatal Suture Fusion

Palatal suture fusion has seen little testing and/or application due in part to an inadequately described relationship to formal age ranges. This study presents a modified scoring method that examines fusion on samples of modern documented adult males and compares two Bayesian approaches to age estimation. In the first analysis, American and Portuguese collections were used to derive univariate and multivariate transition analysis (TA) parameters, which combined with an informative prior, estimated age in a sample of modern Americans and Portuguese. For the second analysis, a Bayesian multiple linear regression (BMLR) used indicator statuses as the independent variables with age as the dependent variable. Highest posterior density regions (HPDRs) and highest posterior density intervals (HDI) were calculated for a holdout sample. Final age estimates for the methods were tested for accuracy using cumulative binomial tests at 75% and 90% coverages. The HPDRs from multivariate TA captured age better for younger individuals, but consistently underaged. The cumulative binomial tests on the BMLR results indicated the prediction intervals performed as expected, and we show they are narrower (more precise) and/or more accurate than the corresponding HPDR. The modified method presented here formally links palatal suture obliteration to age using two different approaches, one of which (BMLR) is new to the aging literature. The BMLR provided results free from bias and more reasonable age ranges while maintaining accuracy. We present a look-up table and a free, simple R file for users to download and run their own estimates with BMLR.     

Examination of Hacking and Blunt Force Skeletal Trauma

Hacking trauma is prevalent in forensic cases involving genocide and dismemberment, but research into the identification of this type of trauma is lacking. The present study examines characteristics of hacking and blunt force skeletal trauma in order to determine if there is a point at which blunt force trauma becomes distinguishable from hacking trauma. Ten implements with a range of blade angles (i.e., the striking surface of the implement) were used in conjunction with a controlled-force hacking device to impact 100 limb bones of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Observations of the trauma included the occurrence and degree of fragmentation, the entrance widths of the impacts, and composite scores of six hacking characteristics, especially the distinctive V-shaped kerf. ANOVA tests and regression analyses were used to assess the relationships between these characteristics and the blade angles. A significant relationship (p-value = 0.011) was found between the composite hacking scores and the blade angles, indicating that blunt force and hacking trauma can be distinguished. The entrance widths of the impacts exhibited a significant relationship with the blade angles (p-value = 0.037). There was also a significant relationship between the visibility of a V-shaped kerf in the bones (p-value = 0.003), with visibility decreasing around the 60° blade angle. These data should assist in establishing guidelines to differentiate hacking and blunt force skeletal trauma in cases where the implement is on a spectrum between sharp and blunt.