中国高校教师聘任制政策文本研究

本文通过内容分析的研究方法，对依据“可获得性”原则搜集到的47所高等学校教师聘任制度样本，从13个方面比较了具体内容的异同，对我国目前各地高校教师聘任制度改革的整体状况进行了统计分析和说明。研究发现，各地高校在政策制定上都与国家相关规定的基本精神保持了高度一致，相互之间不存在显著差异，这些都充分反映了我国高等教育高度行政化、高度集权化的特点。现阶段，我国高校教师聘任制度建设已初步形成体系，并发挥了一定作用，但是仍然存在各个方面的具体问题，需要进一步深化和落实聘任制度改革。     

基于中国银行业市场集中度分析外资银行进入的影响

本文基于我国具有代表性的14家国内银行1991-2004年的时间序列数据,对外资银行进入对我国银行市场集中度的影响进行了定量实证研究。结果表明:外资银行进入对我国银行业人民币存贷款集中度、外汇存贷款集中度的影响并不显著,但是从整体来看,外资银行资产份额比外资银行数目对我国银行业集中度的影响要大。最后,文章提出了实证结论和相应的对策建议。     

解决"三农"问题的两种互补模型:外生性发展与内生性发展

目前我国存在的一系列矛盾和问题,在相当程度上都是来自城乡二元结构转变的滞后。城乡二元结构包括城乡二元经济结构和城乡二元社会结构。针对发展中国家应如何改变由城乡二元经济结构所造成的农村经济落后状况,西方经济学家创建了外生性发展与内生性发展两种模型。这两种模型表面上是相互对立的,实际上是相互补充的。这已被中国农村改革与发展的实践所检验。     

On the value of formal assessment of uncertainty in regulatory analysis

The US Office of Management and Budget introduced in 2003 a new requirement for the treatment of uncertainty in Regulatory Impact Analyses (RIAs) of proposed regulations, requiring agencies to carry out a formal quantitative uncertainty assessment regarding a regulation’s benefits and costs if either is expected to reach $1 billion annually. Despite previous use in other contexts, such formal assessments of uncertainty have rarely been employed in RIAs or other regulatory analyses. We describe how formal quantitative assessments of uncertainty – in particular, Monte Carlo analyses – can be conducted, we examine the challenges and limitations of such analyses in the context of RIAs, and we assess how the resulting information can affect the evaluation of regulations. For illustrative purposes, we compare Monte Carlo analysis with methods typically used in RIAs to evaluate uncertainty in the context of economic analyses carried out for the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Nonroad Diesel Rule, which became effective in 2004.     

The economic significance of “insignificant” rules

We know relatively little about the economic effects of “insignificant” rules because they are not typically analyzed. Yet, these rules could be cumulatively important. We provide an economic analysis of one proposed rule to control hazardous air pollutants, which is not considered to be economically significant. This rule is of particular interest because it is one of the first in a long series of rules that Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will consider for limiting hazardous air pollutant emissions. Our analysis suggests that the proposed controls that EPA has considered are not likely to pass a benefit–cost test. We recommend that an agency base its decision to allocate additional resources to benefit–cost analysis on the expected value of the improved information. In addition, agencies should consider applying a rule of thumb that would specify a threshold level of risk reduction that needs to be achieved before some kinds of regulation are considered.     

The changing face of ‘Drivers of Change’

In 2001 the UK Government's Department for International Development (DFID) launched a new way of conducting political economy analysis, called ‘Drivers of Change’ (DoC). DoC is now well known amongst international development practitioners and professionals. This article provides an introduction to DoC, explaining what it is, where DoC analysis has taken place and which organisations have been involved. It also explores the history and background to DoC, outlines its effect on other bi and multi‐lateral donors and shows how the approach has evolved over the last 5 years. The final section of the article analyses some of the current limitations in the way DoC analysis is used by DFID and predicts how the approach may develop in the future. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国宗教发展趋势分析

新世纪新阶段,我国宗教出现了一些新的趋势:教态平衡发生变化,信仰多元化趋势增强;信教群体面扩大,活动场所需求增加,活动方式灵活多样;宗教思想理论建设加强,教职人员素质提升;宗教世俗化不断发展,宗教神秘主义亦在涌动;宗教在构建和谐社会与促进世界和平发展中的作用越来越大。认清和把握这些趋势,对于引导宗教与社会主义社会相适应具有重要意义。     

关于对群体性事件发展规律及对策分析

当前,群体性事件已经成为影响社会稳定的突出问题,作为社会发展进程中的产物,群体性事件伴随着社会发展形态的进化而不断变化,本文试从社会学和政治学的角度对其发展规律进行了分析,并着重探索目前社会条件下对其有较强操作性的解决方案。     

关于上颌牙弓性别差异的研究

利用自动显示游标卡尺测量200例（男、女各100例，年龄18～24岁）上颌石膏模型上牙弓宽、长及高等18个指标。经统计分析发现除切牙弓长、尖牙间距对应高及第二双尖牙间距对应高外，其余15项测量指标男性均大于女性（P＜0．05）。逐步判别分析仅用7个测量指标，判别率可达到75．50％。     

应用判别分析法判断胸骨性别的研究

本文测量了85例国人胸骨(男52,女33)的全长、柄长、体长、柄最大宽、体最大宽、柄最大厚及体最大厚七个项目,发现所有项目都具有非常显著的性别差异,但两性间重迭率较高,用单项难以准确判定性别。为此,采用 Fisher 判别分析法建立了判定胸骨性别的判别函数,判别率最高达90%。考虑到残缺胸骨的性别鉴定,亦建立了相应的判别函数。与国外研究相比,本文方法判别率较高且更具有实用价值。