Predatory versus developmental rule in Africa

Political economy predicts that national leaders opt for economic development when institutions encourage them to extend their time horizons. By contrast, leaders turn predatory if they feel at risk. Leaders are most able to bear risk right upon taking office, but this can be offset by a perception of high volatility in office holding or by concern about catastrophic losses. Political institutions can therefore discourage predation by fostering recurrent, predictable replacement of leaders without harsh payback for ex-leaders who acted developmentally. Cataloguing all national leadership transitions in Africa since 1960, the article demonstrates that electoral cycles, term limits and the prospect of judgement before international tribunals have lately led to declines in the volatility of top office holding and in the risk of catastrophic loss to the occupants. These new institutions have yet to establish full credibility, but they show promise of altering African leaders' risk assessments to encourage more developmental rule.     

试论我国深化乡镇管理体制改革的目标

明确当今中国深化乡镇管理体制改革的体制性目标,在当前不仅是乡镇机构改革探索中亟待解答的一个重大而现实的命题,而且是全面深化农村综合改革所要迫切完成的一项基础性与根本性任务,更是新农村建设整体推进的必然诉求。为此,本文提出了我国深化乡镇管理体制改革的基本目标与核心目标之范畴,即重构公共管理体制与公共领导体制。     

Strengthening Public-Private Partnerships in State Child Welfare Systems: Results of a Multi-State Strategic Planning Process

Dramatic growth in health and human service contracting over the past two decades has increased the need for managerial competency in the development and sustainment of effective cross-sector partnerships. Although the quality of relations between partnering agencies can affect client outcomes, few macro-level interventions for strengthening cross-sector partnerships have been described or tested in the literature. This article describes a facilitated, strategic planning process implemented in five different states and presents pre-post test results of its effect on different factors known to affect partnership success. Implications for child welfare administrative practice and research are discussed.     

Leadership in Local Government: ‘No Girls Allowed’

This article explores the under‐representation of women at the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) levels of Western Australian (WA) local government. It draws on data collected from 21 second tier senior women managers about their perceptions and experiences of leadership within the sector, as well as their aspirations for CEO appointment. By applying critical gender analysis to the data, gender and specifically masculinity emerges as a significant and valued leadership attribute. While this analysis is not unique to local government, what sets the sector apart is its apparent disinterest in examining the reasons for, or the impacts of this continued leadership stereotype when at the same time Australian public and private institutions are challenging these traditional leadership models. This article points to fundamental weaknesses in the formal power structures and processes of local government that support deeply embedded biases about leadership. Perhaps the most significant contributor to these outcomes that emerged from the study is the apparent unencumbered power of Mayors and elected members over all aspects of CEO employment, especially recruitment.     

涉自贸区行政诉讼被告资格探析

涉自贸区行政诉讼被告资格制度是上海自贸区司法制度中的重要组成部分。涉自贸区行政诉讼被告具有复杂性、多样性和创新性三个特征。传统意义上将行政主体资格与行政诉讼被告相等同的范式在当下受到了越来越多的挑战,同样体现在涉自贸区行政诉讼中。建设上海自贸区本身是在全面深化改革的时代背景下的制度创新,为此必须对涉自贸区行政诉讼被告资格制度进行大胆改革。笔者认为涉自贸区行政诉讼被告资格的认定应当在坚持司法便民、司法效率和救济有效三个原则的前提下,有选择的借鉴国外的先进经验,综合运用行为标准、权力标准以及公务标准等多重标准,在各种具体情形下分别准确认定。     

A Theory of Terrorist Leadership (and its Consequences for Leadership Targeting)

States often target terrorist leaders with the belief that the leader's death or capture will cause the terrorist organization to collapse. Yet the history of this strategy of “leadership targeting” provides a mixed record—for every example of effectiveness, there are similar examples of ineffectiveness. The central question of this article is: what makes a terrorist leader important? Specifically, what does a terrorist leader do that no one else can do (or do as well) for the organization? To answer this question, I develop a theory of terrorist leadership that argues that leaders might potentially perform two main functions: they can provide inspiration and/or operational direction (or not for both). I also theorize as to how and why the provision of these functions changes over time as the organization itself changes. The consequences for leadership targeting flow naturally from this theory—when leaders provide these functions to the organization, leadership targeting is most likely to be effective. Case studies of Algeria, Peru, and Japan offer insights into why some cases of leadership targeting were effective and why others were not. The conclusion extends this model with an analysis of al-Qaeda's prospects after the death of bin Laden.     

Do party leadership contests forecast British general elections?

When assessing election forecasts, two important criteria emerge: their accuracy (precision) and lead time (distance to event). Curiously, in both 2010 and 2015 the most accurate forecasts came from models having the longest lead time—albeit at most 12 months. Can we increase the lead time further, supposing we tolerate a small decrease in accuracy? Here, we develop a model with a lead time of more than 3 years. Our Party Leadership Model relies on the votes of MPs when selecting their party leader. We assess the forecasting quality of our model with both leave-one-out cross-validation and a before-the-fact forecast of the 2019 general election. Compared to both simple forecasting methods and other scientific forecasts, our model emerges as a leading contender. This result suggests that election forecasting may benefit from developing models with longer lead times, and that party leaders may influence election outcomes more than is usually thought.     

Membership vote for party leadership changes: Electoral effects and the causal mechanisms behind

Political parties in parliamentary democracies have increasingly democratized their leadership selection processes, incorporating the votes of party members. Despite generating numerous headlines, there has been a relative dearth of cross-national scholarly work on the electoral effects of selectorate expansion and the causal mechanisms behind them. This study fills this gap in the literature. Using observational data from eleven parliamentary democracies, we show that parties using membership selection can expect a polling boost when compared to those using more exclusive mechanisms. However, membership selection does not affect electoral performance. Nevertheless, our crossnational analyses and results from a survey experiment from Australia suggest that incorporating members generates excitement, demonstrates an openness to new ideas, and can be a signal of leader work ethic and a commitment to the democratic process, increasing leader legitimacy. We discuss the disconnect between these positive evaluations and the lack of electoral effects, and suggest possible strategies for parties to improve their electoral standing.     

论我国司法鉴定人资格制度的完善

我国司法鉴定组织体系是在司法实践中形成的部门分设体制,在鉴定机构设置的原则、布局上呈现出多元化特点,存在司法机关内部鉴定机构、具有行政权背景的鉴定机构和面向社会服务的鉴定机构等三种类型的鉴定机构,由此导致对司法鉴定人实行职业资格与执业资格制度管理方面存在不尽完善之处。为确保司法鉴定人具有较高的业务水平、执业能力和规范执业,提高鉴定质量,有必要实行复合制的鉴定准入制度、建立健全鉴定业务的经常性培训交流与考核机制、建立法官对鉴定结论的实体审查制度和建立司法鉴定专家库等。     

驰名商标司法认定的主体资格亟待完善

目前,我国驰名商标的认定实行行政认定与司法认定并行的双轨制。由于驰名商标司法认定制度才初步建立,在司法实践中存在不少问题。这些问题的存在导致很多企业对通过司法程序认定驰名商标趋之若鹜,并产生不良的社会效应。要解决这一问题,最主要的办法是完善驰名商标司法认定的主体资格。具体措施包括取消基层法院认定驰名商标的资格,实行驰名商标司法认定异地管辖制度,实行驰名商标司法认定“核准”制度。