特朗普政府反恐预警机制改革论析

特朗普上台伊始,以“伊斯兰国”为代表的外部恐怖力量的恶性发展和本土“独狼”式恐怖袭击的频发严重威胁着美国安全,民众不安全感因此持续上升,加之美国反恐系统的缺陷,要求改革美国反恐预警机制的呼声日增。特朗普政府改革反恐预警机制的举措主要包括加强反恐情报搜集和分析、加强与盟友的情报合作与共享机制、加强边界与海关的预防管控、强化反恐预防执法机制、修正国家威胁警报系统公告发布机制等五个方面。纵观特朗普政府执政近两年的反恐预警机制改革实践,其实际效果并不明显。特朗普与情报界的紧张关系及特朗普政府的情报失误、强化移民治理机制、预防恐怖分子政策、对穆斯林敌对性的移民政策、边界预防管控的任性政策及反恐战略的不确定性等,都将影响美国正常反恐预警机制的形成,也会影响美国反恐预警机制的效果与改革方向。美国要预防恐怖主义需要在国内解决社会分裂问题,在国外放弃霸凌政策以缓解反美力量的对美的敌对情绪,美国面临的恐怖威胁才有可能降低。     

Landscapes of power: local struggles and national stakes at the rural-urban fringe of Kabul,Afghanistan

This article shows the coexistence of the language of legal claims and the use of violence as constitutive modes of getting control over resources. Through the analysis of a specific case of land dispute east of Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, we aim at revealing how local struggles are linked to broader geographies of power. Following important changes in the material conditions in Afghanistan, which have led to the expansion of the city and the transformation of the rural-urban fringe, territorialized power appears as a pre-condition to control the circulation of people, goods and money, information and ideas, allowing us to add landscapes, the circulation of land, to the five categories famously distinguished by Appadurai as a way of organizing the study of the world's culture and economy.     

Understanding the Association Between Maltreatment History and Adolescent Risk Behavior by Examining Popularity Motivations and Peer Group Control

The purpose of the present study was to examine how peer group processes of pressure and control and individual motivations for popularity would add to, and moderate the relationship between, childhood maltreatment and risky behavior in adolescence. A total of 1558 youth (804 girls) from three high schools in Ontario, Canada (M age = 15.02 years, SD = .86) reported on their alcohol use, delinquent behavior, childhood experiences of physical and emotional maltreatment and neglect, peer group processes involving control and individual popularity motivations. Regression analyses showed that, beyond the significant contributions of childhood maltreatment, peer group control predicted risky alcohol use and delinquent behavior. Peer group control and popularity motivations exacerbated the negative effect of physical maltreatment on delinquent behavior. Boys’ experiences of peer group control were more strongly linked to alcohol use and delinquent behavior than girls’. These results suggest that there is a significant window of opportunity during adolescence where the peer group context can exacerbate or buffer childhood experiences.

辽宁流动人口犯罪社会学分析及控制对策

流动人口犯罪是社会人口在大规模迁移流动过程中衍生的负面效应。自改革开放以来,我国在经济高速增长的同时也在经历着流动人口犯罪的高发期。辽宁省作为振兴东北老工业基地的重中之重,随着外来流动人口数量的逐年增长,外来流动人口的犯罪形势亦日趋严峻,根据社会学的方法论原则,来系统分析辽宁外来流动人口犯罪的基本特征、形成原因以及流动人口管理中存在的问题,是科学制定综合治理控制对策的前提和基础。     

Familial Correlates of Overt and Relational Aggression between Young Adolescent Siblings

Multi-group confirmatory factor analysis and multi-group structural equation modeling were used to test correlates of overt and relational aggression between young adolescent siblings across four groups (i.e., male/male, male/female, female/male, and female/female sibling pairs), using 433 predominately European American families. Similar patterns of associations were found across groups when distinguished by gender composition. Family environment emerged as an important factor in explaining internalizing problems as well as overt/relational aggression for both younger and older siblings. While perceived maternal psychological control was significantly positively related to overt/relational aggression and internalizing problems for younger siblings, it was significantly positively associated with only relational aggression for older siblings. Findings also provided partial support for the positive linkages between young adolescents’ aggression and their own and siblings’ internalizing problems above and beyond the aforementioned family and maternal variables. Results of the current study extend the understanding of adolescent aggression to a new relational context, or among siblings, and highlight the role of family factors in promoting or buffering the impact of aggression on internalizing behaviors.

Confidence and Caretakers: Some Less‐Obvious Implications of the Fixed‐Term Parliaments Act

This article explores the 2011 Fixed‐term Parliaments Act's less‐obvious implications. First, it discusses why Theresa May found calling the 2017 election so straightforward, and notes what this implies for how FTPA works. Second, it looks at executive–legislative relations. FTPA removed the government's ability to designate controversial parliamentary votes as matters of confidence, and introduced a fourteen‐day cushion between a no‐confidence vote and Parliament's dissolution. In the process, it shifted the balance of power from ministers to backbenchers, to an extent potentially greater than most observers recognise. Third, it considers the more outlandish possibilities raised by FTPA's imposition of a fourteen‐day waiting period after a government's defeat on a no‐confidence motion before a new election can be called. It is possible, for example, for rebel MPs from the governing party to use the no‐confidence procedure to force concessions from the cabinet. Finally, it assesses FTPA's long‐term survival prospects, and what repeal would involve.     

Statutory Protection for Renters: Classification of State Landlord–Tenant Policy Approaches

There are many federal, state, and local laws governing the landlord–tenant relationship. Yet scholars know little about their variety and what impact differences among jurisdictions have on renters and rental housing markets. This article examines state-level landlord–tenant policy approaches to determine whether there is significant policy variation and whether states illustrate identifiable policy types. Using cluster and discriminant analysis, this research creates a typology of landlord–tenant policy approaches, finding three distinctive approaches: protectionist, probusiness, and contradictory. This research indicates there is significant variation among state landlord–tenant statutory policies, although states’ laws generally reflect one of three philosophies. These results are important for future studies on rental housing because treating all state rental environments the same masks important differences in rental experiences across states. As an illustration, this article finds that renters in protectionist and contradictory states move significantly more than renters in probusiness states do. Furthermore, understanding where renters have more or less legal protection allows policymakers and advocates to focus their efforts on areas where assistance is most needed.     

Towards parliamentarisation of foreign and security policy?

Abstract

It is customary to argue that foreign policy is very much dominated by the executive, with parliaments wielding limited influence. However, with the exception of the US Congress, legislative?executive relations in the realm of foreign and security policy have attracted remarkably little scholarly attention. Drawing on a principal?agent framework, this collection scrutinises the conventional wisdom of ‘executive autonomy’ in foreign affairs, indicating that even though parliaments have arguably become more involved in foreign and security policy over time, any notions of parliamentarisation need to be treated with caution. While expectations of consensus in the name of the national interest continue to play an important role in foreign policy decision-making, the papers highlight the role of party-political contestation structuring parliamentary debates and votes in this increasingly politicised issue area. This introductory paper introduces the analytical framework and hypotheses guiding the contributions in this collection, summarises their main findings and suggests avenues for future research.     

Prime ministers and the electoral cost of using the confidence vote in legislative bargaining: evidence from France

Do prime ministers pay an electoral penalty for using procedural force to pass laws? Influential theories of parliamentary governance and legislative bargaining assume that the use of the confidence vote procedure – parliamentary governments’ most powerful legislative weapon – entails an electoral cost, but evidence on this important claim has been scarce. This article provides the first estimates of how prime ministers’ public approval responds to their use of the confidence vote. Analysing time series data from France 1979–2008, it is found that prime ministers experience a considerable drop in approval after their use of the confidence vote that is not accounted for by standard economic and political covariates. The effect size is similar to a 1 per cent decline in economic growth. The findings help explain French prime ministers’ selective use of the confidence vote procedure. They also suggest that political costs constrain the bargaining power conferred by the confidence vote.