Age-Period-Cohort analysis: A design-based approach

This paper develops a design-based approach to identifying cohort effects in APC analyses. Cohort effects arise when one cohort is treated by a unique set of formative socialization experiences, which causes it to differ from other cohorts in relevant outcomes. APC analyses typically compare treated and untreated cohorts from a single population. Our approach introduces a second group—a control group, in which no unit is treated but that is otherwise similar to the first—and adapts difference-in-differences estimation to the APC framework. The approach yields two identification strategies, each based on transparent and testable assumptions. We illustrate how the method works and what is to be gained through three examples.     

Editor's note

This study applies Elisabeth Noelle‐Neumann's spiral of silence theory to the controversial issue of whether children with AIDS should be allowed to attend public school. The study tests the theory's hypotheses in light of two content analyses of the media's treatment of the issue. The findings offer tentative and qualified support for Noelle‐Neumann's theoretical propositions about the relationship between individuals' perceptions of the issue and the media's tenor of the issue; particularly that of television. The findings suggest the need to address the role of other agents of influence, including reference groups, and to use time‐based data to unravel the causal order of the relationships.     

面向网络经济的财经类学生信息素养培养研究

网络经济已成为现有经济形态的重要内容，对财务、金融、贸易等领域产生了重要影响。网络经济不仅带来了社会意识和行为方式的根本性变革，而且对人才的信息素养提出了新的要求。本文在对网络经济的特征以及信息素养的新要求进行剖析的基础上，从文化素养、信息意识和信息技能三方面论述了财经类专业学生信息素养培养的内涵，并从信息技能层面、知识素养层面、信息意识层面三个角度提出了财经类专业学生的信息素养培养对策。     

交通管理专业教学改革思路探讨

探索具有中国特色和时代特征的交通警察教育训练新模式,实施交通管理专业的教学改革,首先要转变教育思想和观念,重新定位专业能力结构与培养目标;其次要修订与完善教学计划,构建教训战一体化的课程结构体系;另外要不断优化师资队伍结构,提高教师的专业实践和综合能力;还要转变课堂教学观念,创新实践教学模式,加强具有警察特色的实训力度。     

论“附保护第三人作用的契约”

自德国产生“附保护第三人作用的契约”以来,其在德国的判例与学说中不断发展、繁荣。我国现也有不少学者在对其加以研究。其中最困难之处在于如何解释“附保护第三人作用的契约”与“债权相对性”之矛盾。笔者从契约效力根源的角度提出“系统契约论”,解释了“附保护第三人作用的契约”之理论根基,认为我国应引进此制度,并将其继续应用到“附保护第三人作用的契约”的构成要件、法律效果、与侵权法之边界等问题,也附带地以“系统契约论”解释了契约法上之其他问题。     

To Give or Not to Give: Modeling Individuals' Contribution Decisions

Employing data from a recent national survey on campaign finance, we examine the contribution behavior of individual citizens in the 2000 election. By disaggregating types of contributions, our model enables us to observe potential heterogeneity in the determinants of giving money to parties and candidates. We find that for both types of contributions, the effects of informational resources and solicitation on the decision to contribute outweigh those of financial resources. In addition, we propose both a theoretical and an empirical distinction between the selection effects of solicitation and the stimulus effects of solicitation. By distinguishing between these dual dimensions of solicitation, our analysis provides new insight into the causal linkages between income, solicitation, and contributions. We find that while solicitation increases the likelihood of contributing through selective targeting or rational prospecting, it also does so through a stimulus mechanism.     

Factors Contributing to Gender Differences in Depressive Symptoms: A Test of Three Developmental Models

In a longitudinal study on 115 early adolescents, the impact of major events, relationship stressors, and coping style in interaction with biological changes on depressive outcome in late adolescence were explored. Three developmental models proposed by Nolen-Hoeksema and Girgus (1994, Psychol. Bull. 115: 424–433), which attempt to explain the emergence of gender differences in adolescent depressive symptoms, were tested. Multiple regression analyses conducted to test Model 1 identified two etiological factors associated with gender differences of depression, namely, stress in the adolescent–mother relationship and a more negative body image. Tests of Model 2 revealed etiological factors which correlated with depression in adolescent girls but not adolescent boys. The correlational patterns of avoidant coping and body image emerged as relevant factors for Model 2. Finally, tests of Model 3 searched for factors which were more likely to be observed in adolescent girls than boys and which would put girls at risk should they interact with a third etiological factor. Early maturational timing emerged as a factor for Model 3.     

实践“三个代表” 切实解决农村干部中存在的主要问题

在农村开展“三个代表”重要思想学习教育活动,稳妥地解决农村干部的主要问题,不断提高农村干部的素质。     

Assessing Stability and Change in Criminal Offending: A Comparison of Random Effects, Semiparametric, and Fixed Effects Modeling Strategies

An important theoretical problem for criminologists is an explanation forthe robust positive correlation between prior and future criminaloffending. Nagin and Paternoster (1991) have suggested that the correlationcould be due to time-stable population differences in the underlyingproneness to commit crimes (population heterogeneity) and/or thecriminogenic effect that crime has on social bonds, conventionalattachments, and the like (state dependence). Because of data andmeasurement limitations, the disentangling of population heterogeneityand state dependence requires that researchers control for unmeasuredpersistent heterogeneity. Frequently, random effects probit models havebeen employed, which, while user-friendly, make a strong parametricassumption that the unobserved heterogeneity in the population follows anormal distribution. Although semiparametric alternatives to the randomeffects probit model have recently appeared in the literature to avoid thisproblem, in this paper we return to reconsider the fully parametric model. Viasimulation evidence, we first show that the random effects probit modelproduces biased estimates as the departure of heterogeneity from normalitybecomes more substantial. Using the 1958 Philadelphia cohort data, we thencompare the results from a random effects probit model with a semiparametricprobit model and a fixed effects logit model that makes no assumptions aboutthe distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We found that with this dataset all three models converged on the same substantive result—evenafter controlling for unobserved persistent heterogeneity, with models thattreat the unobserved heterogeneity very differently, prior conduct had apronounced effect on subsequent offending. These results are inconsistentwith a model that attributes all of the positive correlation between priorand future offending to differences in criminal propensity. Sinceresearchers will often be completely blind with respect to the tenabilityof the normality assumption, we conclude that different estimationstrategies should be brought to bear on the data.     

试论《劳动合同法》的实施效果与运行障碍

<劳动合同法>的颁布和实施引起强烈的社会反响,人们寄望于这部法律扭转当前的劳资格局,建立和谐稳定的劳动关系.但是,这部法律的良好实施取决于用人单位守法的自觉度、劳动者权利意识的觉醒度和劳动保障监察的力度.只有改革现行的社会保险制度,细化<劳动合同法>的抽象条款,加大<劳动合同法>的宣传力度和监察力度,才能取得良好的实施效果.