The case of the missing victims: Gunshot woundings in the National Crime Survey

National Crime Survey (NCS) data yield an estimate that 171,000 Americans were nonfatally shot in criminal assaults, robberies, and rapes for the period 1973–1979. Comparing this estimate with the number of firearms homicides during this period suggests either that the death rate in gunshot cases is very high (over 1/3) or that the NCS estimate is low. Based on police-generated data appropriate to estimating the true death rate from gunshot wounds, it appears that the NCS estimate is low by a factor of about 3.0 compared with the number of criminal gunshot woundings known to the police. It is common knowledge that survey-based estimates of assault rates tend to be relatively unreliable, a fact that has been attributed to problems with respondents being willing and able to recall threats, fist fights, and other minor assaults. The current result indicates that the estimation problem is not limited to minor assaults. There is reason to think that the underestimate of gunshot woundings is the result of problems with the NCS sample as well as problems with respondent cooperation.     

On the Robustness and Validity of Groups

In response to Nagin's comment on our paper, Methodological Sensitivities to Latent Class Analysis of Long-Term Criminal Trajectories, we reconsider the robustness and validity of group-based approaches to criminal trajectories and introduce additional issues for future research. We emphasize the limitations of typological approaches and the dangers of reifying the idea of distinct offender groupings for research and policy. We also clarify misunderstandings about the use of hierarchical linear models for studying trajectories of crime. Our basic conclusion is that methods in criminology need to be more tightly linked with theory.     

实践“三个代表” 切实解决农村干部中存在的主要问题

在农村开展“三个代表”重要思想学习教育活动,稳妥地解决农村干部的主要问题,不断提高农村干部的素质。     

试论青少年德育中的学生主体性缺失

青少年德育实效性偏低关键是学校德育中的学生主体性缺失,具体表现为:在德育的目标和内容上,以社会为本位的价值取向造成对主体德育需求的漠视;在德育的方式方法上,以灌输为特征的传统方法造成对主体认知发展规律的忽略;在德育的载体途径上,以学校为中心的德育体系造成主体价值选择的困惑;在德育的评价标准上,以道德认知为内容的评价体系造成主体人格的分裂。     

浅议公安群众工作中的说服方法

说服作为一种以求得对方理解和认同为目的的谈话活动,是公安民警群众工作的一项重要基本功,不论是和谐警民关系的构建,还是社会矛盾纠纷的调解,都离不开正确的说服方法。本文基于当前公安群众工作的实际需要,对常见的说服方法进行了归纳和总结,并以实际案例对每种说服方法的应用进行了具体的说明。     

精品课程建设中本科课堂教学应处理好的几个基本关系

诉讼法精品课程建设,应当高度重视本科课堂教学。只有着力处理好授课内容与教材的关系、系统讲授与突出重点的关系、内容的知识性与趣味性的关系、阐释法学理论与联系司法实际的关系、传授知识与培养能力的关系、教师的主导作用与学生的能动作用的关系,才能够真正提高本科课堂教学效果。     

民事裁判中事实认定的对象

民事裁判中事实认定对象的准确确定 ,是作为裁判基础的事实得以正确、及时认定的前提。但由于受事实与评价、案件性质等因素之影响 ,使得事实认定对象的准确确定十分复杂。本文在深入地理论分析和实证考察的基础上 ,明确提出了以当事人就事实问题存在的实质性争议焦点为事实认定对象的观点 ,并尝试性地探讨及时、准确地认定对象的方法。     

论促进科学技术发展与资源合理利用的良性互动

随着科学技术的高速发展，其对资源利用的影响也日益增大。人类如何发展科学技术以促进资源的合理利用，已成为一个很紧迫的问题。本文阐述了促进科学技术发展与资源合理利用良性互动应遵循的理念和原则，应采取的途径和方法，应实施的举措和保障，希望能推动和促进对这一重要问题的正确解决。     

提高大学生社会适应能力的路径探讨

在市场经济发展和高等教育改革不断深化的社会条件下,大学生群体存在社会适应能力乏力的现象,这既不利于自身全面素质提升,也不利于社会进步和发展。增强大学生社会竞争能力,应从提高其社会适应能力的路径着手。     

法官解释之方法智慧重述

审判的过程,需先对案件事实进行法律上的裁剪,继而以法律事实为据解释法律,重构审判规范。法官解释法律的方法智巧虽多,归根结底应服从于终极之目的解释。结合具体案件中的法律事实,法律经由文义、体系、法意、目的解释可以构造出适合个案的审判规范。