Dimensions of Chinese foreign conflict and cooperation: A research note

Key mediation attributes, such as mediating actors, the strategy they choose, and previous mediation experiences, are widely thought to influence the nature of a conflict management outcome. But how and when these features shape outcomes is not a straightforward matter, and a standard analysis of these factors does not lead to their widely anticipated results. Why? We develop a new analytical framework that argues that a dispute's intensity alters the conflict management processes. Furthermore, in order to observe this variation, we also need to expand the traditional, dichotomous notion of conflict management outcomes (success or failure) to include a fuller range of observed results. Using the most recent International Conflict Management data set and our new analytical framework, we analyze the effect on conflict management outcome of mediator (a) identity, (b) strategy and (c) history. We find that directive strategies and international mediators are effective in resolving high intensity conflicts, procedural strategies and regional mediators are effective in resolving low intensity conflicts, and that mediation history always affects resolution. Our results have implications for both the study and practice of international dispute mediation.     

Third-Party Intermediaries and Negotiated Settlements, 1946–2000

Past studies regarding the success and/or failure of conflict management activities have brought about a wide range of results. In this paper we attempt to gain more definitive conclusions about effectiveness by accomplishing two tasks. First, using a basic theoretical framework we identify expectations of efficacy as they relate to differences between states, coalitions, and IGOs. Second, we also examine the utility of different conflict management techniques in an effort to place in greater perspective the effectiveness of mediation, the most utilized technique of third party intermediaries. Using a new dataset on third-party intermediary behavior in militarized disputes from 1946 to 2000, we find that while all conflict managers are useful in assisting belligerents in reaching a negotiated settlement, IGOs are the most effective. Additionally, while mediation is an effective technique to produce settlements, military intermediary actions, such as peacekeeping, are much more useful.     

Geographic Opportunity and Neomalthusian Willingness: Boundaries,Shared Rivers,and Conflict

International conflict has been analyzed extensively through the framework of opportunity and willingness. Opportunity has mainly been operationalized as physical proximity. Willingness has been measured in a number of ways, and remains a somewhat more elusive concept. Several scholars have called for boundary length to represent opportunity. Heeding such calls, Harvey Starr has used GIS methods to generate boundary length for 1993 and has found it to be associated with increased propensity to conflict. A number of his measures of willingness were not. Using a new and much more extensive dataset on boundary length for the entire Correlates of War period, this article finds very different results. We study the relationship with shared rivers and water scarcity as measures of neomalthusian factors in willingness over a 110-year period. The results indicate that the neomalthusian factors are significant although not dramatic in their effects. Boundary length, while associated with conflict in a bivariate analysis, fades into insignificance when the neomalthusian willingness measures are introduced.     

Failed agreements and their impact on subsequent mediation onset and success in intrastate conflicts

ABSTRACT

What impact do failed mediated agreements have on subsequent mediation onset and success? The question of mediation onset and success is undoubtedly important, given that mediation is one of the international community’s preferred conflict management tools, but its voluntary nature leaves room for the conflict parties to (dis)agree to talks and possible settlements. Existing research suggests that previous mediation outcomes can affect subsequent mediation efforts positively or negatively – depending on the outcome in focus. This article argues that failed agreements – an outcome of mediation that has not been accounted for in existing literature – underscore the persistence of the commitment problem, and therefore the hazards of sharing private information. Consequently, the conflict parties question the utility of mediation, and the likelihood of subsequent mediation onset decreases. If subsequent talks take place despite the failed agreement, the conflict parties refrain from sharing private information, and reaching an agreement becomes thus less likely. Drawing on the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s (UCDP) Managing Intrastate Conflict in Africa data set and the UCDP Peace Agreement data set, the results strongly underline the negative impact failed agreements have on subsequent mediation onset, and thereby show that agreement longevity is crucial not only for peace duration but also for leaving the door open to subsequent talks.     

Web Content Management Systems: An Analysis of Forensic Investigatory Challenges

With an increase in the creation and maintenance of personal websites, web content management systems are now frequently utilized. Such systems offer a low cost and simple solution for those seeking to develop an online presence, and subsequently, a platform from which reported defamatory content, abuse, and copyright infringement has been witnessed. This article provides an introductory forensic analysis of the three current most popular web content management systems available, WordPress, Drupal, and Joomla! Test platforms have been created, and their site structures have been examined to provide guidance for forensic practitioners facing investigations of this type. Result's document available metadata for establishing site ownership, user interactions, and stored content following analysis of artifacts including Wordpress's wp_users, and wp_comments tables, Drupal's “watchdog” records, and Joomla!'s _users, and _content tables. Finally, investigatory limitations documenting the difficulties of investigating WCMS usage are noted, and analysis recommendations are offered.     

An open trial of an anger management treatment in a correctional facility: preliminary effectiveness and predictors of response

Despite the prevalence of anger management programs in correctional settings, there is mixed support for their effectiveness, and little is known about who benefits most. This preliminary study aimed to (1) evaluate the effectiveness of anger management for inmates, and (2) examine baseline psychopathology and midtreatment variables as response predictors. Participants were 30 incarcerated men undergoing 12-session anger management groups. Post-intervention, inmate-reported anger, and disciplinary actions decreased. Increased reported emotion regulation strategies predicted anger reduction.     

Discrimination of Geographical Origin of Asian Garlic Using Isotopic and Chemical Datasets under Stepwise Principal Component Analysis

Isotopic compositions of δ²H, δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C, and δ¹⁵N and concentrations of 22 trace elements from garlic samples were analyzed and processed with stepwise principal component analysis (PCA) to discriminate garlic's country of origin among Asian regions including South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, and China. Results indicate that there is no single trace‐element concentration or isotopic composition that can accomplish the study's purpose and the stepwise PCA approach proposed does allow for discrimination between countries on a regional basis. Sequentially, Step‐1 PCA distinguishes garlic's country of origin among Taiwanese, South Korean, and Vietnamese samples; Step‐2 PCA discriminates Chinese garlic from South Korean garlic; and Step‐3 and Step‐4 PCA, Chinese garlic from Vietnamese garlic. In model tests, countries of origin of all audit samples were correctly discriminated by stepwise PCA. Consequently, this study demonstrates that stepwise PCA as applied is a simple and effective approach to discriminating country of origin among Asian garlics.     

住宅价格如何影响城镇居民消费——基于状态空间模型的研究

基于时变参数状态空间模型,利用1999年到2016年的季度数据测算了我国住宅价格对城镇居民消费影响的时变特征。结果表明,我国住宅价格对消费的影响整体上呈现微弱的财富效应,住宅价格的MPC位于0.0543到0.1155之间。2004年之前住宅价格上升对消费的影响波动剧烈,2004年后大致呈现先上升,2013年后开始下降的“倒U”型趋势。这说明近年来房价上升对消费的挤出效应迅速增强。鉴于此,从挤出效应传导机制入手,政府应该谨慎平稳调整房价、增加保障性住房供给,并提高城镇化进行中外来人口收入。     

技术创新模式下的社会资本与网络关系的影响研究

近年来,我国生产性服务业正在以服务经济为主导的产业结构中快速迈进,诸多生产性服务中间投入要素也正向制造业融入,二者已进入互动发展阶段。文章立足于社会资本和社会网络关系理论,深入研究了生产性服务业与制造业在不同技术创新互动阶段下,社会资本决定的网络主体强弱关系对企业选择技术创新模式的行为影响,并结合中国塑料城塑料研究院有限公司近年来的技术创新进行了案例分析。由此获得的结论是：制造业是服务业发展的前提和基础,生产性服务业是关联制造业体系的重要补充,服务业体系的发展必然依托于制造业强有力的技术创新;互动发展中的网络主体强弱关系与技术创新模式存在一定相关性,弱关系促进探索式创新,强关系促进利用式创新;不同互动阶段,技术创新也存在不同特征,并具有协同演化趋势。