Credibility and Strategy in International Mediation

We study mediation in international conflict as a process of strategic interaction among the two disputants and the (would-be) mediator. We develop a rational model that examines the choice, process, and outcome of mediation. We start with a conflict game of incomplete information played by rational players that examines the conditions under which disputants and would-be mediators would consider mediation a preferred strategy. The mediation game that follows models the mediator's choice of mediation strategy and the possible responses of the disputants offers. Finally, we explore the conditions under which a mediated solution emerges and the conditions under which mediation fails.

The credibility of the mediator—defined as the extent to which disputants believe the mediator's statements, threats, or promises and her ability to deliver the promised agreement—emerges as a key factor that drives the model. Each disputant has an assessment of the mediator's credibility. Broadly speaking, the more credible the mediator is perceived by the disputant, the more accepting the disputant will be of her offers. Yet, the mediator does not know how credible she is in the view of the disputants. This uncertainty affects the mediator's decision to intervene and her choice of strategies. We derive testable propositions from this model and test them on a dataset consisting of mediation efforts in international conflicts over the years 1945–1995. The findings generally support the propositions derived from the model, and we explore the theoretical and empirical implications of these findings.     

The Conditional Effectiveness of Directive Mediation

ABSTRACT

This research re-examines the effectiveness of directive mediation in interstate rivalries. To do so, highlighting the importance of disputants’ willingness for successful directive mediation, this study identifies four conditions that affect the levels of disputants’ willingness to engage in mediation talks and proposes that the presence of such conditions improves or worsens the efficacy of directive strategies. We expect heavy-handed mediators will be less effective in a dispute involving highly interdependent or power-imbalanced rivalries while directive mediation performs poorly when it is led by unbiased mediators or when it is employed for long-running rivals. Our empirical findings, based on two existing rivalry datasets, suggest that directive mediation fares well when mediators are biased, when rivals are power-balanced, and when rivalries are protracted, and that the efficacy of directive mediation improves in disputes involving highly interdependent strategic rivals but decreases in the cases between highly interdependent general rivals.     

调解的技术合理性——一种中观的组织结构-功能论的解读

调解的同等组织结构,为嵌入该结构的民意沟通提供了平等而自由的“理想的言谈情景”,形成了“主体间性”和“主体间性结构”,为充分、深入而成功的民意沟通提供了可能和技术保障,并在沟通中滋生出一种建基于自身组织技术上的既不同于立法也有别于司法审判的沟通合法性,即技术合理性.制度的命运最终决定于自身技术.调解之所以能长存于古今中外,在于自身的技术合理性,而不是外在的意识形态因素.     

El régimen jurídico de la mediación civil y mercantil en conflictos transfronterizos en españa tras la ley 5/2012, de 6 de julio

This article analyzes in depth the regulation set forth by the Act 5/2012, of 6-7 as regards cross-border mediation. The article addresses some essential issues of this institution. Thus, the regulation of the agreement to mediate; the role played by mediators, their training and the recognition of their status; the law applicable to the merits of the dispute or the foreign recognition of any agreement reached between the parties after a mediation procedure are some of the issues studied in this article. The analysis highlights the relevance of the Act 5/2012 in Spain for promoting the use of mediation in Spain. But at the same time it shows the need for the Act to be fully implemented in order to solve some of the questions and problems that it still raises.     

宽带协议存在的问题及法律规制

在宽带协议中,消费者权益保护不周是多方面共同作用的结果。电信运营商的强势地位和垄断地位是造成保护不足的根本原因,监管缺位和宽带协议作为格式合同自身的特点是消费者权益保护部足的重要因素。为更好的保护消费者利益应该从这些原因入手,完善监管机制,引入竞争机制,落实普遍服务义务,完善在处理宽带协议纠纷时对消费者合法权益的保护。     

Negotiated Exits from Organized Crime? Building Peace in Conflict and Crime‐affected Contexts

This article contributes to a growing discussion in peace mediation and peacebuilding circles about the issue of dialogue and negotiation with organized crime groups. The article seeks to demystify this issue by exploring the range of practice from confrontation to accommodation and transformation. The article argues that there is nothing unusual about engaging in dialogue and negotiation with organized crime groups and that those strategies have been used for decades in crime and violence reduction efforts in urban and civil war settings. In their quest to resolve conflict in violent and fragile contexts, mediators and negotiators can adapt existing peacebuilding practice to help structure dialogue processes with organized crime groups.