Decision Making for Extreme Events: Modeling Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies to Aid Mitigation and Response Planning

Recent tragedies such as Hurricane Katrina, 9/11, and the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake have revealed a need for methods to evaluate and plan for the impact of extreme events on critical infrastructure. In particular, awareness has been raised of the threat that a major disruption will lead to cascading failures that cross boundaries between interdependent infrastructure sectors, greatly magnifying human and economic impacts. To assist in planning for such extreme events, researchers are developing modeling tools to aid in making decisions about how best to protect critical infrastructures. We present some of the capabilities of this modeling approach as well as some of the challenges faced in developing such applications based on our experience with the Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System (CIPDSS) model, developed for use by the Department of Homeland Security. A set of disruptions to road and telecommunication infrastructures is implemented in CIPDSS and the modeled disruptions to the original infrastructure as well as cascading effects on other infrastructure sectors are discussed. These simulations provide insights into the potential of this approach.     

法律生活的哲学观照:法哲学的智慧

法哲学的智慧与旨趣在于对真实的人的法律生活的哲学观照。这种哲学观照体现为在对真实的人的法律生活的现实理解的基础上,对人的法律生活进行的价值改造,从而在思想上对人的法律生活进行理想型塑。     

Using ARIMA models to predict prison populations

In this study a time-series model for predicting Louisiana's prison population was developed using the iterative Box-Jenkins modeling methodologyidentification, estimation, and diagnostic checking. The time-series forecasts were contrasted with results of regression models and an exponential smoothing model. The results indicate that the time-series model is the superior model as indicated by the usual measures of predictive accuracy. When compared with actual data the predictions appeared sufficiently adequate to meet the needs of the correctional system for short-term planning.     

Virtual determination of sex: metric and nonmetric traits of the adult pelvis from 3D computed tomography models

Examination of the adult os coxae and sacrum is one of the most common methods of sex estimation from bone. Medical imaging, such as computed tomography (CT), provides the opportunity for three-dimensional (3D) imaging of the skeleton from clinical scans of known individuals in situ. In this study, a randomly selected subset of abdominopelvic CT-derived models were used to evaluate simple, repeatable metric methods of sex estimation based on a combination of obstetric measurements and the traditionally nonmetric Phenice-derived traits. A four-variable discriminant function for sex estimation was developed based on statistical analyses. Overall, the cross-validated accuracy of this method was 100%, with inter-observer error showing an average of only 2.2%. Comparative analysis was run on the data set using FORDISC 3.0. This study shows that current sex determination standards from the pelvis should be updated to include more in vivo data to increase the accuracy of identification.     

The Crime Reduction Effects of Public CCTV Cameras: A Multi‐Method Spatial Approach

Public Closed Circuit TeleVision (CCTV) initiatives have been utilized as methods of monitoring public space for over two decades. Evaluations of these efforts to reduce crime have been mixed. Furthermore, there has been a paucity of rigorous evaluations of cameras located in the USA. In this analysis, crime in the viewshed of publicly funded CCTV cameras in Philadelphia, PA, is examined using two evaluation techniques: hierarchical linear modeling and weighted displacement quotients. An analysis that incorporates controls for long‐term trends and seasonality finds that the introduction of cameras is associated with a 13% reduction in crime. The evaluation suggests that while there appears to be a general benefit to the cameras, there were as many sites that showed no benefit of camera presence as there were locations with a positive outcome on crime. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.     

School Vandalism in Mexico

Mexico, like other countries in Latin America, is currently facing significant problems with regard to juvenile antisocial behavior and crime. The current study explores some of the factors associated with school vandalism in public high schools. Multilevel modeling with survey data from 22,345 students from 249 schools, acquired over two years, was used to determine how much variation in the rates of school vandalism exists between and within schools, and to detect individual and contextual characteristics that explain significant proportions of the variance. Results demonstrated significant differences across schools in the rates of student vandalism, most of which were associated with gang involvement, drug use, bullying, no attachment to school rules, and unequal treatment of students by teachers. These results are discussed in relation to the literature on school vandalism, and implications for the prevention of school vandalism are discussed.     

A Growth Curve Analysis of the Joint Influences of Parenting Affect,Child Characteristics and Deviant Peers on Adolescent Illicit Drug Use

This study purports that parental rejection and warmth are critical to the development of adolescent drug use, and investigates a model that also considers children's vulnerability and deviant peer affiliations. It tests mediation through the proximal risk factor of deviant peers. Poisson growth curve modeling was used to examine participants from the Canadian National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (NLSCY; N=2194) over 4 waves. Results indicated that parental rejection was positively related to drug use, whereas parental warmth was negatively related to it. Both effects were significant when child ADHD symptoms were taken into account. Parental rejection and warmth had differential effects over time. Deviant peer affiliations were positively associated with drug use, did not have a differential influence over time, and did not mediate the other effects. There was significant between-individual (level 2) variability in drug use. Results are discussed in light of adolescent perceptions of parent-child relationships. Research Interests: social and emotional development; family processes; adolescent problem behaviours; main area of work is about understanding risk and protective factors in typical and atypical adolescent development Department of Human Development and Applied Psychology, University of Toronto, 252 Bloor Street West, Toronto, Ontario, M5S 1V6, Canada Research Interests: social and emotional development; family interaction; child psychopathology; main area of work is about understanding emotion processes in children and in family life that help us to understand psychopathology in childrenDepartment of Human Development and Applied Psychology, University of Toronto, 252 Bloor Street West, Toronto, Ontario, M5S 1V6, Canada     

Evidence for Social and Behavior Problems in Low-Income,Urban Preschoolers: Effects of Site,Classroom, and Teacher

Teacher ratings of 336 preschool children (mean age = 48 months) attending two urban Head Start programs were collected to examine the influence of contextual variables of teacher training, classroom, and site on the prevalence of significant problems. The prevalence of externalizing behaviors in the problem range was higher than expected and fewer children were rated in the well-adjusted range on social competence measures. Psychometric characteristics of the ratings indicated that teachers in this urban setting were less consistent in their ratings of internalizing problems, calling into question the lack of elevation of such problems in this population. Ratings by teachers and teacher assistants of the same children showed low agreement; the level of ratings was not affected by differences in training but did vary across classrooms. Hierarchical linear modeling analyses of the entire sample showed significant effects of classroom and site on problem behaviors and social competence. These results reveal the wide variation in problem frequency across classrooms, which needs to be considered in the implementation and evaluation of evidence-based interventions. Further, these results point to the importance of studying possible lasting effects on children exposed to these differing contexts.     

Dispositional Sensitivity to Befallen Injustice

Dispositional Sensitivity to Befallen Injustice (SBI) is proposed as a new construct. A self-report questionnaire with four types of indicators (frequency, intensity of anger, intrusiveness of thoughts, punitivity) was developed for measuring SBI. Using structural equation modeling and the general rationale of multitrait-multimethod analysis, the convergent and discriminant validity of this questionnaire was investigated vis-à-vis measures for Trait Anger, Anger In, Anger Out, and Frustration Tolerance as related constructs. Additionally, a meaningful pattern of correlations was obtained between SBI and Life Satisfaction, Centrality of Justice, Interpersonal Trust, and Need for Control. Finally, self-reported sensitivity to befallen injustice was found to predict cognitive, emotional, and behavioral reactions to unjust treatment in laboratory and natural settings several weeks later.     

结构方程模型在社会工作研究中的应用初探

社会工作研究中要注重定性研究和定量研究的互相补充与支持。结构方程模型(StructuralEquationModeling,SEM)是在已有的理论基础上,用与之相应的线性方程系统表示该理论的一种多变量统计分析方法,又称协方差结构分析(CovarianceStructureAnalysis)因果模型(CausalModeling)。在社会工作的研究中,应用结构方程模型要有一定的标准和条件。