Forensic Biomechanical Analysis of Falls from Height Using Numerical Human Body Models*

Abstract: This article describes the method of using human body models developed originally for the use in automotive safety in forensic reconstructions of falls from height. The MADYMO^® software package and multibody human body models were used in forensic analyses of two real cases—a fatal fall from a window c. 13.8 m above the ground and a fall into a c. 2.5‐m deep cellar pit resulting in isolated ankle joint injury. The performed series of numerical simulations helped to reconstruct the events and to resolve legally relevant questions concerning various aspects of the falls. The benefits as well as limitations and potential biases associated with the use of numerical simulation in forensic biomechanical settings are discussed. The method has proven to be effective under specific circumstances, though the cost (both financial and temporal) still prevents it from wider use.     

数模竞赛与公安院校学生综合实战能力培养

通过带领学生参加数学建模竞赛这一活动,深刻体会到数学建模与公安院校学生综合实战能力的培养密不可分。那么,如何将数学建模思想和方法融入到公安院校学生综合素质的培养中呢？这里提出了一些建设性意见。     

MARKETIZED MENTALITY,COMPETITIVE/EGOISTIC SCHOOL CULTURE,AND DELINQUENT ATTITUDES AND BEHAVIOR: AN APPLICATION OF INSTITUTIONAL ANOMIE THEORY*

We analyze the individual‐level and school‐level determinants of delinquency through the lens of a macro‐sociological theory of crime—institutional anomie theory (IAT). The concept of a “marketized mentality” is introduced as a predictor of students’ delinquency, along with an egoistic/competitive school culture—a feature of the school community. Five hypotheses pertaining to the readiness to use violence and self‐reported delinquency were assessed using multilevel modeling with data from a survey in Germany for 4,150 students clustered in 69 schools. The results largely meet theoretical expectations. The measure of marketized mentality exhibits robust relationships with both forms of delinquency at the individual level, and an egoistic/competitive school culture helps explain variation in levels of these forms of delinquency across schools. Also consistent with expectations, the anti‐social effects of marketized mentality are accentuated for both the readiness to use violence and committing instrumentally motivated property offenses as a competitive/egoistic school climate increases. The results of our analyses reveal that bringing in concepts of IAT can appreciably enhance understanding of the characteristics of students and features of communal school organization that are conducive to youthful offending.     

CRIME DIVERSITY*

Large geographic areas should host a greater diversity of crime compared with small geographic areas. This proposition is reasonable given that larger geographic areas should not only support more crime but also contain a greater diversity of criminogenic settings. This article uses a neutral model to characterize crime richness as a function of area. The model starts with two neutral assumptions: 1) that all environments are statistically equivalent and exert no influence on what types of crimes occur there; and 2) that different crime types occur independently of one another. The model produces rigorous predictions for the mean and variance in crime richness with increasing area. Tests of the model against a sample of 172,055 crimes occurring in Los Angeles during the year 2013 are qualitatively consistent with neutral expectations. The model is made quantitatively consistent by constant scaling. Resampling experiments show that at most 20 percent of the mean crime richness is attributable to nonrandom clustering and assortment of crime types. A modified neutral model allowing for variation crime concentration is consistent with observed variance in crime richness. The results suggest that very general and largely neutral laws may be driving crime diversity in space.     

On Myth,Considered as a Method for Legal Thought

The textual form of law relates to language and not to narration but to myth. Law's text does not develop in the temporal sequence of past-present-future, but spreads by analogy of concentric circles. If ‘normal’ myth is a folklore of people then the law is a myth retold by lawyers. For the sake of separation of legal myth from mythology as a whole, law creates its own rituals. In post-modern societies the mythologization of law becomes even more important as the boundaries between legal and lay communities are challenged. Classical legal theories cannot deal with this change and Kafka's The Trial is as good a jurisprudence as any other legal theory. This revised version was published online in November 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Crime and Residential Choice: A Neighborhood Level Analysis of the Impact of Crime on Housing Prices

Crime serves as an important catalyst for change in the socio-economic composition of communities. While such change occurs over a long period of time, crime is capitalized into local housing markets quickly and thus provides an early indicator of neighborhood transition. Using hedonic regression, we quantify this “intangible cost” of crime and extend the crime-housing price literature in several important ways. First, we disaggregate crime to the census tract level. Second, using longitudinal data, we examine changes in crime in addition to the neighborhood levels of crime. Third, we differentiate between the effects of property crime and violent crime. Fourth, we also disaggregate our sample into groups based on per capita income of the census tract. Finally, we show that it is vital to account for the measurement error that is endemic in reported crime statistics. We address this with an instrumental variable approach. Our results indicate that the average impacts of crime rates on house prices are misleading. We find that crime is capitalized at different rates for poor, middle class and wealthy neighborhoods and that violent crime imparts the greatest cost.

Gender Differential Influences of Early Adolescent Risk Factors for the Development of Depressive Affect

Based on a model by Cyranowski, J., et al. (2000), Arch. Gen. Psychiatry 57: 21–27, adolescents at-risk for the development of depressive symptoms were identified. Adolescents were considered at-risk if they had 2 or more of the following early adolescent risk factors: (1) insecure parental attachment, (2) anxious/inhibited temperament, (3) low instrumental coping skills, and (4) early pubertal maturation. Nonrisk adolescents had zero or just one risk factor. Using data from a 10-year longitudinal study on the development of adolescents’ health, with 5 points of data assessment (i.e., 6th, 7th, 8th, 12th, and 12 + 4 follow-up), the impact of the four early adolescent risk factors on the development of emotional tone was investigated. Emotional tone was measured by the Emotional Tone Scale of the SIQYA (Petersen, A. C., et al. (1984), J. Youth Adolesc. 13: 93–111), an indicator for positive emotional tone and low depressed affect. Growth curve modeling was applied to reveal significant gender differences in level and slope for the development of emotional tone over the adolescent years. Latent Growth Curve Models can be seen as a combination consisting of repeated measures analysis of variance and autoregressive analyses to evaluate the latent change of the variables under investigation (Rovine, M. J., and Molenaar, P. C. M. (2000), Multivar. Behav. Res. 35(1): 51–88). At-risk girls revealed poorer levels of emotional tone which stayed almost at the same low level up to young adulthood (i.e., 12 + 4), indicating a long lasting impact of the specified risk factors. In contrast, at-risk boys showed poorer emotional tone in early adolescence, but at the end of adolescence boys at-risk had the same level of emotional tone as nonrisk boys. At-risk girls showed significantly higher levels of depressive symptoms at grade 12 and at 12 + 4.Assistant Professor at the Department of Psychology, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg. He received his master’s degree from the Technical University Berlin in 1989 and his PhD from the Pennsylvania State University in 1993. His research interests encompass developmental psychology and methodology.Senior Vice President for Programs at the W. K. Kellogg Foundation, Battle Creek, Michigan. She received her PhD from the University of Chicago.     

论保持和发扬高校教师党员的先进性

高校教师党员理应成为教师的先进代表,保持和发扬高校教师党员先进性是时代发展的要求,具有深远意义.保持和发扬教师党员的先进性必须高举理论旗帜,强化理想信念,重塑"三观",讲正气,纯洁心灵,再树形象,自觉接受监督,树立公仆意识;抵制政治毒化,筑就防变堤坝;勇于实践,经受锻炼和考验;深刻内省,注意自我修养;贵在慎独,提高自我约束能力.     

From Poisson to the present: Applying operations research to problems of crime and justice

In the 1830s Siméon-Denis Poisson developed the distribution that bears his name, basing it on the binomial distribution. He used it to show how the inherent variance in jury decisions affected the inferences that could be made about the probability of conviction in French courts. In recent years there have been a number of examples where researchers have either ignored or forgotten this inherent variance, and how operations research, in particular mathematical modeling, can be used to incorporate this variance in analyses. These are described in this paper, as well as other contributions made by operations research to the study of crime and criminal justice.     

The Role of Peer Groups in Adolescents’ Educational Expectations and Adjustment

The present study investigated to what extent the members of adolescents’ peer groups share similar educational expectations, and to what extent overall and school-related adjustment are associated with these expectations. Three hundred and ninety-four ninth-graders facing the transition to secondary education filled in questionnaires measuring their short-term and long-term educational expectations, and their academic achievement, learning difficulties, negative attitudes towards school, problem behavior, and self-esteem. Multilevel modeling showed that peer group members shared similar educational expectations. Among girls, adjustment typical of the peer group was associated with the group members’ educational expectations. By contrast, among boys, only problem behavior typical of the peer group was associated with the group members’ educational expectations.