The hierarchies of age-period-cohort research: Political context and the development of generational turnout patterns

Voters that come of age at roughly the same time share common influences because of the specific political context during their formative years. We can therefore assume the errors in a model explaining their political behavior to be dependent. Recent advances in social statistical analysis of age-period-cohort (APC) effects propose the use of hierarchical modeling in combination with repeated cross-sectional survey design to solve this problem. We apply these random-intercept models to assess the impact of the political context on the development of generational turnout patterns, assuming that cohorts that grew up in a highly-politicized context have a higher propensity to turnout to vote despite of any age or period effects.     

Granger因果分析模型研究进展

由于时间序列的非平稳性,不具有有限方差,所以高斯—马尔科夫定理不再成立,用普通最小二乘法得到的参数估计不再是一致的,出现伪回归的现象,从而导致错误的因果关系。同时由于时间序列的非线性,常规的线性向量自回归模型难以正确描述经济变量之间的因果关系。从G ranger因果分析模型研究进展情况,可见目前所面临的问题和未来可能的发展方向。     

公共危机事件中网络谣言对网络舆情的影响

以公共危机事件产生的网络谣言为辐射中心,通过构建网络谣言对网络舆情影响程度的评估指标体系,建立多元线性回归方程模型研究其对网络舆情产生的影响程度。据此分析出公共危机事件中网络谣言的变量对网络舆情的影响方式和程度并反映其变化规律,为公共危机事件网络舆情的管理和控制提供理论支撑,以利于政府和网络监管部门及时地,准确地做好公共危机事件网络谣言的防控工作。     

Lawlessness in the Federal Sentencing Process: A Test for Uniformity and Consistency in Sentence Outcomes

One of the important goals of the federal sentencing guidelines was to reduce inter‐judge disparity in sentencing. In this paper, we test the assumption that structuring discretion produced uniformity in federal sentencing and consistency in the process by which judges arrive at the appropriate sentence. We also examine whether background characteristics of judges affect the sentences they impose on similarly situated offenders. We used hierarchical linear modeling, nesting the offenders in the judges that sentenced them in order to examine the sentencing decisions of federal judges in three U.S. District Courts. While we found that significant variation between judges in sentencing is largely accounted for by our level 1 characteristics, we also found that judges arrive at decisions regarding the appropriate sentence in different ways, by attaching differential weights to several of the legally relevant case characteristics and legally irrelevant offender characteristics.     

Cognitive Skills,Adolescent Violence,and the Moderating Role of Neighborhood Disadvantage

Numerous studies uncover a link between cognitive skills and adolescent violence. Overlooked is whether the relationship changes at varying levels of neighborhood disadvantage. We examine the issue by contrasting two models that place individual difference in cognitive skill within a social‐structural framework. Using five waves of the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and a three‐level hierarchical model, results indicate that cognitive skill is inversely associated with violence and that the relationship is strongest in non‐disadvantaged neighborhoods. However, the cognitive skills–violence relationship is indistinguishable from zero in the most disadvantaged neighborhoods. The findings are therefore consistent with the hypothesis that social expression of developed ability is muted in disadvantaged contexts.     

An accuracy assessment of forensic computerized facial reconstruction employing cone-beam computed tomography from live subjects

The utilization of 3D computerized systems has allowed more effective procedures for forensic facial reconstruction. Three 3D computerized facial reconstructions were produced using skull models from live adult Korean subjects to assess facial morphology prediction accuracy. The 3D skeletal and facial data were recorded from the subjects in an upright position using a cone-beam CT scanner. Shell-to-shell deviation maps were created using 3D surface comparison software, and the deviation errors between the reconstructed and target faces were measured. Results showed that 54%, 65%, and 77% of the three facial reconstruction surfaces had <2.5 mm of error when compared to the relevant target face. The average error for each reconstruction was -0.46 mm (SD = 2.81) for A, -0.31 mm (SD = 2.40) for B, and -0.49 mm (SD = 2.16) for C. The facial features of the reconstructions demonstrated good levels of accuracy compared to the target faces.     

GENERATIVE EXPLANATIONS OF CRIME: USING SIMULATION TO TEST CRIMINOLOGICAL THEORY*

This study demonstrates that computational modeling and, in particular, agent‐based modeling (ABM) offers a viable compatriot to traditional experimental methodologies for criminology scholars. ABM can be used as a means to operationalize and test hypothetical mechanisms that offer a potential explanation for commonly observed criminological phenomena. This study tests whether the hypothesized mechanisms of environmental criminology are sufficient to produce several commonly observed characteristics of crime. We present an ABM of residential burglary, simulating a world inhabited by potential targets and offenders who behave according to the theoretical propositions of environmental criminology. A series of simulated experiments examining the impact of these mechanisms on patterns of offending are performed. The outputs of these simulations then are compared with several well‐established findings derived from empirical studies of residential burglary, including the spatial concentration of crime, repeat victimization, and the journey to crime curve. The results from this research demonstrate that the propositions of the routine activity approach, rational choice perspective, and crime pattern theory provide a viable generative explanation for several independent characteristics of crime.     

Risk Terrain Modeling: Brokering Criminological Theory and GIS Methods for Crime Forecasting

The research presented here has two key objectives. The first is to apply risk terrain modeling (RTM) to forecast the crime of shootings. The risk terrain maps that were produced from RTM use a range of contextual information relevant to the opportunity structure of shootings to estimate risks of future shootings as they are distributed throughout a geography. The second objective was to test the predictive power of the risk terrain maps over two six‐month time periods, and to compare them against the predictive ability of retrospective hot spot maps. Results suggest that risk terrains provide a statistically significant forecast of future shootings across a range of cut points and are substantially more accurate than retrospective hot spot mapping. In addition, risk terrain maps produce information that can be operationalized by police administrators easily and efficiently, such as for directing police patrols to coalesced high‐risk areas.     

Race,Ethnicity, Threat,and the Designation of Career Offenders

Florida statutes allow for the application of enhanced sentences to defendants designated as “Career Offenders.” The application of these laws is discretionary and as such, prosecutors seek the designation for a fraction of the defendants who qualify. Utilizing Hierarchical Generalized Linear Modeling, this paper examines whether individual attributes, such as race and ethnicity, impact an individual's likelihood of receiving the Career Offender designation for 13,704 males sentenced to prison between 2002 and 2004. The second-level analysis incorporates county characteristics into the equation and tests whether these predictors have either a direct or a cross-level effect on the relationship. The broad theoretical framework that guides the present research is grounded in the social threat and social control perspective, which argues that minorities on both the individual and aggregate levels may be perceived as threatening in ways that can mobilize or enhance social controls.     

DISTINGUISHING FACTS AND ARTIFACTS IN GROUP-BASED MODELING*

Group-based methodology (SPGM) has been presented as suitable to test for the existence of subpopulations not directly observable. Several criminological studies have used this methodology, and it is fair to say that typological theorizing has been spurred by its development. In particular, much of the empirical support for Moffitt's taxonomy (1993, 2006) is from studies using SPGM. In a small simulation experiment, I investigate whether SPGM is suitable for such tests, and I examine the extent to which similar trajectories might equally well result from mechanisms suggested by general theories. I conclude that, as it is usually applied, SPGM cannot provide evidence either for or against a taxonomy and that the usual findings can be explained by competing theories. I argue that this result is not only because of the methodology characteristics but also because of the modeling strategy applied.