流动人口犯罪的社会学思考

流动人口进入城市后环境的改变,原有的传统准则失效以及社会管理和控制能力弱化等因素,导致其违法犯罪明显上升,加强流动人口管理的制度性建设和改善,促进农村剩余劳动力合理、有序的转移,优化进城农民社会心理环境,是控制和减少流动人口犯罪的有效对策。     

Using ARIMA models to predict prison populations

In this study a time-series model for predicting Louisiana's prison population was developed using the iterative Box-Jenkins modeling methodologyidentification, estimation, and diagnostic checking. The time-series forecasts were contrasted with results of regression models and an exponential smoothing model. The results indicate that the time-series model is the superior model as indicated by the usual measures of predictive accuracy. When compared with actual data the predictions appeared sufficiently adequate to meet the needs of the correctional system for short-term planning.     

我国农村劳动力流动的组织化问题分析

提高农村劳动力流动的组织化程度是实现我国大规模农村劳动力合理、有序流动的重要条件。政府组织、中介组织和自组织是我国农村劳动力流动的主要组织形式;农村劳动力流动组织化程度低是不争的事实,但原因是多方面的;提高农村劳动力流动组织化程度,需要健全组织系统,建立组织间的沟通、协调与衔接机制,构建网络信息共享平台。     

新时期日本人口老龄化的国际比较研究

日本是当今世界人口老龄化程度最高的国家,通过对日本人口老龄化现状及趋势,日本人口老龄化的决定因素及其人口学影响,日本人口老龄化特点的国际比较研究,详细介绍了日本人口老龄化的发展及特点,为充分了解日本的人口老龄化状况提供了科学翔实的依据。     

Assaults in the elderly--a population-based study with victim and perpetrator characteristics

The aim of the present epidemiological study was to investigate characteristics of assaults in the elderly aged 65 years and above from the perspective of the victim and perpetrator. This population-based study included 23,142 assaults (according to §§ 224/226 StGB of German criminal law) that were recorded in Bavaria, Germany, from 1999 to 2005. The population-based ratio of serious crimes of battery for the elderly in comparison with the reference population was markedly lower (0.10; 95% CI: 0.09-0.11) in suspects aged more than 65 years and 0.08 (95% CI: 0.07-0.09) for the injured above 65 years. Elderly perpetrators differed significantly concerning the manner of the assault (p < 0.001). They committed less crimes in urban areas (56.1% vs. 68.8%) and were victimized significantly more in rural areas (p < 0.001; 41.2% vs. 30.2%). Violence in the elderly differs from that of the younger population. Further research is warranted to establish prevention measures.     

大连市人口非平衡特征与犯罪统计研究

文章基于孟建柱部长在全国公安机关社会管理创新工作座谈会上的讲话精神,通过对大连市20年来人口与犯罪动态特征的可拓统计分析,得出了大连市社会犯罪的数量特征、关系特征、不确定性特征和动态演化等多元特征,立足人口特征与犯罪的关系,运用非平衡系统理论建立了人口周期犯罪率和人口容率的概念,提出了可拓犯罪统计的思想和方法,同时对自然人口与犯罪的惯性增长态势、流动人口与犯罪增长的突变特点以及城市化进程对犯罪规模的影响进行了统计分析。研究表明,只有对城市人口特征和犯罪增长与演化模式进行可拓统计与评价,才能实现社会管理优化的目标。     

Y-chromosome STR haplotypes in a sample from São Paulo State, southeastern Brazil

Population: Unrelated males from the S?o Paulo State, Brazil (n=617).     

Population data for a novel, highly discriminating tetra-local Y-chromosome short tandem repeat: DYS503

Population: Population samples for gene diversity studies were obtained from the Virginia Division of Forensic Science (bloodstains), Richmond, VA. Ninety-eight Caucasian and 100 African American samples were included in this study.     

Allele frequencies of 20 Y-chromosomal short tandem repeat loci in a tribal population of Deccan Plateau, India

Population: Eighty male individuals from a nomadic tribal population belonging to Dravidian and Indo-Caucasian ethnicities from Deccan Plateau, Andhra Pradesh, India, were analyzed in the present study.     

Y-chromosomal STR haplotypes in two endogamous tribal populations of Karnataka, India

POPULATION: Approximately 5.0 mL of blood sample was collected from a total of 150 men belonging to two tribal populations of coastal Uttar Kannada district of Karnataka, with their informed written consent. Both the populations are endogamous and they belong to the Dravidian linguistic family. Halakki is a tribal group having a population size of c. 3383. They claim that they originally belong to Gujarat and Rajasthan, and migrated through Andhra Pradesh to Karnataka. Kunabhi is also a tribal population, c. 35,214 in number. They were hunters and gatherers but presently they practice agriculture.