Model verification for population detection of counterfeits

The quality of counterfeit items has increased dramatically, with modern global manufacturing being able to duplicate the materials, construction, and visual features of items. Detection of fraudulent coinage can parallel authentication of food, beverages, and manufactured goods by studying product-inherent features. Counterfeit detection is performed by comparing an Example group with a Questioned group. A model is developed for both groups using standard tests on individual pieces. Coin weight is used here as an illustration. The model should also follow the natural science of the system. In this case, the manufacturing process variation is known and steady, and the underlying distribution is known or can be determined from authentic pieces. The proposed detection method uses testing of many individual pieces, then using reverse-quality-engineering methods to identify possible sources. This strategy looks at the variation between individual pieces to determine the process capability of a machine, assembly line, or plant to create product consistency for a manufacturer. Fraudulent items may be manufactured within specification, but demonstrate a manufacturing process capability different than that of the authentic manufacturer. In this report, we examine the model previously reported and use reconstruction techniques to re-create the evidence set to validate the model, increase model accuracy, and confirm the conclusion previously reached, showing that the Questioned set is likely over 37% non-conforming by weight. In this case, the decision outcome of the analysis was improved by using additional methods not included in the modeling software package originally used.     

农村人口变迁对农业家庭经营的影响与法律对策

作为农村社会变迁的重要组成部分,农村人口变迁主要包括人口数量、结构、质量、心理素质以及思想观念等方面的变化。在新的历史时期,我国农村人口的变迁呈现出独特的趋势。农村人口各个方面的变迁会对农业家庭经营产生重要而又深远的影响,因此,必须重视农村人口变迁的趋势及其影响,着力调整计划生育、农村就业以及农村公共产品供给等方面的法律制度,确保我国农业家庭经营获得健康发展。     

Analysis of histomorphometric variables: Proposal and validation of osteon definitions

Histological analysis of bone tissue has been used to explore a variety of questions relating to age-at-death, habitual behaviors, health, and nutritional stress. Identification of intact and fragmentary osteons is of key interest to many researchers in these studies, yet the definitions of these features vary between researchers making cross-study comparisons problematic. Furthermore, histological variable definitions are often ambiguous or require subjective classifications by the observer. As a result, and as indicated by previous studies, observer error and misclassification of certain variables, namely intact and fragmentary osteons, can be significant. This study proposes new definitions for intact and fragmentary osteons that are designed to limit observer subjectivity and also explore efficacy of combining osteon types into one variable. A sample of 30 6th rib cross-sections from a modern forensic population was used to test the validity of the proposed definitions. Observations of intact osteon population density (OPD(I)) and fragmentary osteon population density (OPD(F)) were made by three observers for each cross-section. These observations were used to explore the interobserver error associated with the proposed definitions and determine if combining variables into one variable (OPD) mitigates persisting classification difficulties. Results indicate that the proposed definitions significantly reduce interobserver error and misclassification of intact and fragmentary osteons. However, the interobserver error associated with fragmentary osteons is still high. Evaluation of the variables independently indicates that combining variables has potential to reduce the predictive strength of an age estimation model and the ability to interpret age-related bone remodeling.     

北京市流动人口的家庭化与消费支出

流动人口约占北京市常住人口的1/3,对城市消费经济的发展意义重大。基于2017年全国流动人口动态监测数据,研究北京市流动人口的动态特征,发现近年来流动人口呈现出的家庭化流动趋势愈加突出,而与全国相比,北京市流动人口家庭化规模呈现"小型化"特征,随迁子女比例少但随迁老人比例高;同时发现,家庭化的扩展不仅为流入地增加了劳动力供给,而且显著增加了家庭的消费支出,刺激了流入地的消费经济,有利于扩大城市内需,保持长期的经济发展活力。基于发现与分析,可从住房、养老、教育、医疗等方面提出若干适应流动人口家庭化阶段特征的政策措施。     

The Modernist Manifesto of Alva and Gunnar Myrdal: Modernization of Sweden in the Thirties and the Question of Sterilization

How can one judge the policies of Alva Myrdal in the Thirties? Alva Myrdal, one of Sweden's best-known feminists, suggested sterilisation in her proposed family policy during that decade. In the internationally reported intensive Swedish debate in the autumn of 1997 on the Swedish forced sterilisation 1935–1975, Alva Myrdal's ideas played a major role. What picture of Alva Myrdal evolves out of that debate, and how does it stand in relationship to her own writings and the general discursive context of the Thirties? Chronocentrism is discussed.     

Influences on the Prisoner Rate: Number of Entries into Prison, Length of Sentences and Crime Rate

On the basis of the data contained in the European Sourcebook, this article tries to answer the question: 'What influences the prisoner rate most? The number of entries into prison, the length of sentences, or the crime rate?' The authors show that the crime rate is absolutely not correlated with the prisoner rate. The latter depends principally on the length of the imposed custodial sanctions and secondly on the number of those imposed prison sentences. Nevertheless, there are some indications suggesting that these results could be different from one type of offence to another. Unfortunately, this hypothesis could not be tested on the basis of the European Sourcebook data.     

中国人口的最新动态与趋势 ——结合第七次全国人口普查数据的分析

人口普查不仅可以为人口研究,而且可以为国家制定相关的经济社会发展政策提供数据支撑,具有重要的意义.根据第七次全国人口普查资料,结合历年人口统计和以往各次普查数据,研究对中国最新人口态势和特点进行了详细的归纳与分析,发现我国人口的最新变化主要体现为:全国人口规模继续增长,但增长速度和幅度持续放缓,并向零增长和负增长趋近;...     

41-Plex SNP色素推断复合检测体系在中国人群中的适用性研究

目的 根据已知的HIrisPlex-S色素推断SNP复合检测体系,在中国人群中进行色素表型推断及体系的适用性研究.方法 基于SNaPshot平台,构建包含2个复合扩增检测体系的41重SNP色素特征推断体系41-Plex.使用来自中国7个不同地域人群的200个无关个体DNA样本进行体系的准确性测试.通过人工表型分类读取眼...     

云南民族间通婚的家庭类型与人口结构研究

云南各民族之间在婚姻家庭和生育上具有显著的文化差异性 ,这种差异引起了民族混合家庭的基本关系和制度上的变化 ,并最终导致其家庭人口与代际结构的相应变化。人口数据显示了民族混合家庭偏离各自民族主导家庭模式的特点。     

广西地区壮族人群17个STR基因座遗传多态性研究

目的调查广西地区壮族人群17个STR基因座遗传多态性,为法医物证鉴定和群体遗传研究提供基础数据。方法收集2624份广西地区壮族人群无关个体样本采用Chelex-100提取样本DNA,用PowerPlex■18D System试剂盒进行PCR扩增及检测,计算群体遗传学参数。结果17个常染色体STR基因型分布均符合Hardy-Weinberg平衡定律(P>0.05),共检测出235个等位基因,971种基因型,累积个体识别率(TDP)为0.999999999999999,累积非父排除率(CPE)为0.999999772。结论17个STR基因座在广西地区壮族人群中具有较好的遗传多态性,可以用于法医学中个体识别和亲权鉴定,也可用于群体遗传学及法医学研究。