环保督察与空气质量改善:立足城市情境的效应异质性分析

作为生态环境保护领域的一项重大制度创新,中央环保督察已经成为党和政府推动生态文明建设的重要政策工具。然而,对于中央环保督察能否改善空气质量,尤其是其效果的可持续性,尚存在诸多争议。立足于匹配后的地级市数据评估中央环保督察对空气质量改善的平均效应,结果表明中央环保督察尽管在短期内显著改善了空气质量,其长期效应并不显著。然而,借助基于模型的递归分解法和随机森林法进一步发现:中央环保督察的长期效应存在显著的情境差异性:中央环保督察对于空气污染较重的城市具有长期改善效应,且东部城市尤为明显;一个城市的经济发展水平越高,中央环保督察效应越具有长效性;政府规模和财政自主性对中央环保督察效应起到截然相反的调节作用:前者的扩张会削弱长期效应,而后者的提升则会强化长期效应。揭示城市情境对督察效应的调节作用,有助于深化学界对中央环保督察长效性的条件认识,也为进一步完善该制度、提升其效能提供了重要的思路。     

政府环境治理工作的公众评价：央地差距与结构性制约

近年来,随着环境问题日益受到社会各界的重视,政府在环境治理工作中的表现正成为公众关注的重点。但是,我们对于目前我国政府环境治理工作公众评价的基本情况和影响因素还知之甚少。基于对中国综合社会调查2013年（CGSS2013）数据的分析,我们发现,我国公众对于中央政府环境治理工作的评价显著高于地方政府,包括受教育程度、收入水平、社会经济地位感知、政治身份、城乡差距和地区差距在内的结构性因素制约着公众对于政府环境治理工作的评价。在对研究发现进行深入讨论的基础上,进一步提炼了研究发现在政策意义上的启示。     

Defining Environmental Justice Communities for Regulatory Enforcement: Implications from a Block‐Group‐Level Analysis of New York State

The absence of a clear definition of environmental justice areas has been cited as one of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's major deficiencies in managing federal environmental justice programs. Several states have explicitly defined potential environmental justice areas and integrated targeted efforts into the policy‐making process. At the block‐group level, this study evaluates the effects of New York State's environmental justice policy, which defines communities of concern in terms of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics as well as mandates supplemental regulatory enforcement activities for these neighborhoods, on the agency's policy implementation practices under the Clean Air Act and Clean Water Act. The empirical findings suggest that there is inconclusive evidence regarding race/ethnicity‐ and class‐based environmental inequity. Also, the state's policy intervention is not universally effective. Moreover, task environments of a given community are a consistent determinant of the agency's regulatory compliance monitoring and assurance activities. This study then derives broader implications regarding the adoption of a policy instrument that defines and screens potential environmental justice communities.     

Environmental Harm or Natural Hazard? Problem Identification and Adaptation in U.S. Municipal Climate Action Plans

A number of cities in the United States have devised climate action plans (CAPs) to mitigate the effects of climate change. However, few of these plans address strategies to adapt to the long term effects of climate change that will occur in the near and distant future. The research presented in this article examines why cities choose to embed adaptation provisions in their CAPs. Our study codes the content of CAPs for all cities (N = 98) in the United States with populations greater than 50,000. We find cities that frame problems associated with climate change in the language of hazards are more likely to include adaptation strategies in their CAPs than cities that focus on other types of environmental harm. Our findings suggest that more robust efforts to plan for climate change will require the activation of communities of interest beyond those that have been instrumental in setting the current climate agenda.     

Command without control: The case of China's environmental target system

In the existing literature there is general agreement that the effectiveness and efficiency of command and control instruments versus market‐based instruments is highly context specific. A country's particular regulatory environment and state capacity, as well as the features of given environmental problems, play an important role in ascertaining what the “right” set of policy instruments for environmental management might be. This article examines how command and control instruments are used as an environmental enforcement mechanism in China's authoritarian state. Based on extensive fieldwork, this paper shows that the reliance on binding environmental targets as the main domestic policy instrument in China has generated numerous undesirable consequences. While China's target‐based approach to implementation has incentivized local officials to strictly enforce environmental mandates, there are numerous shortcomings in the system. In particular, target rigidity, cyclical behaviour, poor data quality, and the absence of an independent monitoring agency have generated adverse effects and contribute to a yawning gap between regulatory goals and outcomes. The paper concludes that binding environmental targets as the main command–control instrument in China can be more accurately described as “command without control” as the target‐setting central government does not exercise a high degree of control over implementation and monitoring processes. But command and control instruments can be suited for managing “first‐generation” environmental problems and addressing environmental issues that have easily identifiable pollution sources and which are easy to verify.     

Prosecutorial regulation in the Global South: Environmental civil litigation by prosecutors in China compared to Brazil

Brazil's successful prosecutorial civil action against polluters could be a regulatory example for the Global South. This paper analyses whether such regulation could also develop without the major political, institutional, and legal reforms that spurred it in Brazil. To do so, it analyzes China, where similar reforms have so far not occurred, but where prosecutors have recently started to initiate civil litigation against polluters. It finds that prosecutorial civil litigation in China has only a limited regulatory effect or potential. Prosecutors in China are influenced by conflicting incentive structures that reward one‐off lower level test cases with an innovation bonus, while structurally stimulating a focus on general crime fighting. Ironically, as a result of such incentives, the recent legal reform, toward providing standing for prosecutors in public interest litigation, will, in contrast to Brazil, decrease rather than increase the regulatory effect of these cases. These findings have implications for understanding how the interaction between regulatory independence, legal reform, and regime type shapes possibilities for regulatory innovation in the Global South.     

The authoritarian logic of regulatory pluralism: Understanding China's new environmental actors

Over the last decade, Chinese citizens, judges, and prosecutors have started to take action against industrial pollution, pluralizing a regulatory landscape originally occupied by administrative agencies. Regulatory pluralism here has an authoritarian logic, occurring without the retreat of party‐state control. Under such logic, the party‐state both needs and fears new actors for their positive and negative roles in controlling risk and maintaining stability. Consequently, the regime's relation to regulatory pluralism is ambivalent, shifting between support and restriction. This prevents a development of a regulatory society that could bypass the regulatory state. Theoretically, this special edition argues for a subjective definition of regulation in a context of pluralism. Moreover, it finds that regulatory pluralism need not coincide with a decentring of regulation. Finally, it highlights how entry onto the regulatory landscape affects the non‐regulatory roles of new actors, creating unintended consequences for regulatory pluralism.     

Fuel to the Fire: Natural Disasters and the Duration of Civil Conflict

Do natural disasters prolong civil conflict? Or are disasters more likely to encourage peace as hostilities diminish when confronting shared hardship or as shifts in the balance of power between insurgents and the state hasten cessation? To address these questions, this study performs an event history analysis of disasters’ impact on the duration of 224 armed intrastate conflicts occurring in 86 states between 1946 and 2005. I contend that natural disasters increase conflict duration by decreasing the state’s capacity to suppress insurgency, while reinforcing insurgent groups’ ability to evade capture and avoid defeat. First, disasters’ economic impact coupled with state financial outlays for disaster relief and reconstruction, reduce resources available for counterinsurgency and nation building in conflict zones. Second, the military’s role in administering humanitarian assistance can reduce the availability of troops and military hardware for counterinsurgency, prompt temporary ceasefires with insurgents, or both. Third, natural disasters can cause infrastructural damages that disproportionately hinder the state’s capacity to execute counterinsurgency missions, thereby making insurgent forces more difficult to capture and overcome. The combination of these dynamics should encourage longer conflicts in states with higher incidence of disaster. Empirical evidence strongly supports this contention, indicating that states with greater disaster vulnerability fight longer wars.     

Russian–Japanese relations after the Russo-Japanese war in the context of world politics

Abstract

The Treaty of Portsmouth could not solve all the diplomatic problems between Russia and Japan, and dissenting voices were heard in both countries. Nevertheless, Russo-Japanese relations went in the direction of not only normalization, but also building an alliance. That radical change from hostility has not often happened in history and needs careful research, in particular the early stages of this process after the conclusion of the Treaty of Portsmouth. The construction of an alliance was not the primary goal at the beginning of Russo-Japanese negotiations after the war between the two nations. This goal appeared during the process of solving different problems, and so the international situation is extremely important to understand changes in Russo-Japanese relations. This process had several facets. First, there was the deterioration in Anglo-German relations with a corresponding realignment of British policy towards Russia. Second was the resolution of problems in Central Asia between Russia and Great Britain. Third, there was the mutual interests Japan and Russia had in China, in particular rail interests, which were related to the organic unity of the northern part of the Russian railroad in China. Finally, Russia had the desire to keep relations with France as a corner-stone of foreign policy.     

国际投资法中的“国家安全”问题探究——以“Ralls诉美国外国投资委员会案”为视角

国际投资协定通过条约义务设定,促使投资东道国保护其境内的外国投资。"国家安全例外"条款则以保护东道国利益为宗旨,并为国际投资协定和国际投资争端解决实践认可。"国家安全例外"在平衡国际投资者与投资东道国利益中扮演重要角色,但该条款会为以保护东道国国家利益为名行投资歧视之实的行为提供"条约保护伞",对国际投资造成不合理限制。在国际投资协定由"重投资保护轻东道国保护"向"投资者与东道国兼顾"的转型中,我国拟在《外国投资法》中设置国家安全审查机制的做法正逢其时,并与"投资者—东道国纠纷解决机制"退出国际投资条约的呼声相呼应,将为投资东道国利益提供条约上的保护。但在国际投资协定尚未完成转型的时期,通过国家安全审查国际投资时应兼顾考察所涉及的投资协定,以免国家承担可能发生的条约不履行的国际责任。