Partisanship and Incumbency in Presidential Elections

Party identification is a standard part of our understanding of presidential voting, but the effects of presidential incumbency on presidential voting have not been recognized in most voting models. Democratic candidates in the twentieth century received 10 percent more of the two-party vote when Democratic incumbents were running for reelection than when Republican incumbents were running. National Election Studies surveys show that the effect of incumbency varies with individual partisanship, with the greatest effect, as expected, among independents. Opposition party identifiers defect at a higher rate than incumbent party identifiers when the incumbent is running for reelection. Even after controlling for retrospective and prospective economic voting, a 6 percent effect is found for incumbency. Incumbency thus conditions the impact of partisanship on presidential voting.     

The Role of Party Activists in the Evolution of the Abortion Issue

This article examines the role of party activists in the partisan evolution of the abortion issue. Previous research indicates that party elites—specifically members of Congress—and partisans in the mass public have become more differentiated in their abortion attitudes during the last several decades with Democrats becoming more pro-choice and Republicans becoming increasingly pro-life. The missing piece of the picture is the behavior of party activists. Accordingly, this research examines the changes in the abortion attitudes of two groups of party activists during the last three decades: campaign activists and national convention delegates. From 1972 to 1980 there were no significant differences in the abortion attitudes of Republican and Democratic campaign activists, and the mean positions of the two parties' national convention delegates did not differ greatly. However, since 1984 there has been a growing differentiation in the abortion positions of both groups of party activists. Now Democratic activists are consistently pro-choice while Republican activists are equally pro-life. This evidence indicates that the differentiation on the abortion issue that has only recently emerged among partisans in the mass public was predated by an earlier and much more dramatic polarization that had already developed among party activists and elites, thus supporting a model of issue evolution introduced by Carmines and Stimson in their study of racial issues. We also find that citizens' abortion attitudes have become increasingly correlated with party voting not just in presidential elections but also in House, Senate, and gubernatorial contests during this period as well as being more closely related to political ideology. All of this evidence points to the growing extent to which abortion has become a partisan issue in American politics and the key role that party activists have played in this process.     

基层党组织必须高度重视党课教育

党课教育面临中国社会全面转型的诸多挑战。目前基层党组织党课教育的现状令人担忧。在新社会形势下,重视和加强党课教育对于提高党对意识形态的领导力是十分重要的。今天,党课教育要尽快重现生命活力,就必须与时俱进。     

Party opportunism among local politicians after Taiwan’s power transition

This paper probes into a hypothesised opportunism towards political party affiliation among local politicians in Taiwan since the power transition from Kuomintang (KMT) to Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) rule began in 2000. Longitudinal changes in election candidates' party affiliation are analysed to see what happened to the KMT's supposedly strong base of local politicians after the change of governing party. The research finds a generally high propensity of election candidates' changing or dropping their party affiliation between elections, and an increased propensity among KMT candidates after 2000. However, defections to other parties are more common in higher elections. In grassroots elections, many candidates flow in and out of their party affiliation depending on the political circumstances, but they rarely change party. Several years after the DPP gained power in presidential elections, the new ruling party is still struggling to build a strong local party organisation.     

论网络虚拟财产的刑法保护

网络虚拟财产又称网财 ,是指游戏中的帐号、货号、装备、级别、段位、宠物等网上物资的总称。网络虚拟财产属于无形财产 ,是具有价值和使用价值的商品。伴随网财交易市场的日渐形成 ,网络虚拟财产犯罪的打击和监管已成为必要。网络虚拟财产犯罪主体的高发群体是青年 ,客观方面表现为隐蔽性和智能性 ,客体方面表现为多样性。处理网络虚拟财产犯罪的基本原则是拓展现行刑法关于妨害社会管理秩序罪及财产犯罪的适用范围 ,在刑法不能涵盖的地方作出补充和修改。     

Echoes of Butler? The Conservative Research Department and the Making of Conservative Policy

Although it remains a comparatively little known institution, the Conservative Research Department (CRD) has played an important role in modern British political history. The last few years have seen a remarkable revival in its fortunes. In several important respects, this revival echoes that of the Department under the chairmanship of Rab Butler following the election defeat of 1945. This article examines some of the parallels to be drawn between the experience of the CRD between 1945 and 1951 and between 2001 and the present. It concludes by drawing some general conclusions about how the Conservative party should develop policy when in opposition.     

Saving the Union: Conservatives and the 'Celtic Fringe'

The creation of devolved institutions in Scotland and Wales has forced the Conservative party to rethink its Unionism. At Westminster, the Conservatives have highlighted the anomalies of the devolution settlement and pressed for a rebalancing of the constitution. With the re-emergence of the West Lothian question in 2003, the Conservatives revived William Hague's proposal for 'English votes for English laws'. Fresh thinking on devolution is evident in the Scottish and Welsh Conservatives but they remain in the electoral doldrums. The Conservatives have taken tentative steps towards a 'new Unionism', but there are tensions between the focus on the 'English question' at Westminster and the efforts of Conservatives in Scotland and Wales to convince voters that they represent the interests of both the Union and their respective nations.     

Money Matters: The Financing of the Conservative Party

The article examines the financing of the Conservative Party in the aftermath of the 2001 general election. An examination of the party's income and expenditure shows that pre-2001 patterns remain - the Conservatives are the poorer of the two main parties but continue to be the principal recipient of corporate and in-kind donations. However, the article also demonstrates that income rose sharply in the aftermath of the change of leadership in 2003, suggesting that this change may have stimulated donations. Also, as for other parties, questions of probity continue to arise following larger donations but, like Labour, the Conservatives oppose any caps on political giving.     

Déjà vu? Conservative Problems in Historical Perspective

Since 2001, the Conservative party has found itself in turbulent times. Yet the party has survived similarly difficult periods in the past, eventually recovering its strength and returning to power. Can it do so again? The problems for today's party exist along four key dimensions: leadership, policy, organisation and political circumstances. How grave are contemporary difficulties in each of these areas in comparison to past experience? To what extent is the party now in uncharted waters? Where are there valid historical parallels? The article offers a brief sketch of the lessons that the party needs to learn to recover its election winning formula ‐ an appetite for power and an impressive ability to adapt to changed circumstances. Today's problems are not insurmountable, but the party still has a huge mountain to climb if it is to return to government.     

论增强民主党派的参政党意识

发挥我国社会主义政党制度的特点和优势 ,必须注意增强民主党派的参政党意识 ,包括坚持中国共产党领导的意识、求同存异的意识、参政议政和民主监督的意识、大局意识和忧患意识等。目前民主党派的参政党意识较为薄弱 ,这既有历史的原因 ,也有现实的原因。为增强参政党意识 ,民主党派要加强自身建设 ,适时考虑制定自己的纲领 ,还要勇于和善于同执政党唱“对台戏”。