执政安全与党内民主建设中的风险防范

维护执政安全,防控执政风险,是执政党巩固执政地位的必然要求.执政党的执政风险可能来自多个方面,其中包括执政党自身的民主建设状况,故必须加强党内民主建设,发展党内民主.如果在党内民主建设中出现原则性偏差或措施失当,有可能在党内造成思想多元、成员分层、组织分派、政治权威降低等,从而削弱党的凝聚力和战斗力,进而威胁党的执政地位和党的生存发展.因此,在推进党内民主建设时,必须强化风险防范意识,并从目标、方向、道路、制度、程序等方面着手,探索出一条增量式、渐进式的党内民主发展道路.     

Preventing Corruption Risk in Legislation: Evidence from Russia,Moldova, and Kazakhstan

ABSTRACT

Corruption risk assessment of draft laws and other normative acts is a relatively new instrument in the anti-corruption strategies implemented by developed nations, countries in transition, and the developing world. In connection with this, any practical experience accumulated in this area presents obvious interest. The analysis of such experience may allow to identify what works and what does not work in introducing the practices of anti-corruption screening of draft laws and other normative acts in various environments and settings, as well as contribute to dissemination of best practices in the countries of the region and elsewhere.

This article seeks to analyze and demonstrate the extent of practical implementation of corruption risk assessment of draft and enacted legislation in three post-communist countries, the problems encountered and solutions identified. Proceeding from this analysis, certain recommendations for practitioners in this field are formulated.     

Serial Domestic Abuse in Wales: An Exploratory Study Into its Definition,Prevalence, Correlates,and Management

Analysis of information held by police, probation, and third-sector organizations in Wales about 100 domestic abuse perpetrators, along with 16 practitioner interviews, provides the empirical context for a discussion of the problem of “serial domestic abuse.” Despite increased concern over the harm caused by serial abusers, different definitions and recording systems prevent a reliable estimation of the problem. This exploratory study suggests that the offending profiles of serial abusers are heterogeneous, and recommends that approaches aimed at reducing the harm caused by the “power few” domestic abusers incorporate information about serial alongside repeat and high-risk offending.     

The geography of pre-criminal space: epidemiological imaginations of radicalisation risk in the UK Prevent Strategy, 2007–2017

ABSTRACT

This article explores geographical and epistemological shifts in the deployment of the UK Prevent strategy, 2007–2017. Counter-radicalisation policies of the Labour governments (2006–2010) focused heavily upon resilience-building activities in residential communities. They borrowed from historical models of crime prevention and public health to imagine radicalisation risk as an epidemiological concern in areas showing a 2% or higher demography of Muslims. However, this racialised and localised imagination of pre-criminal space was replaced after the election of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition in 2010. Residential communities were then de-emphasised as sites of risk, transmission and pre-criminal intervention. The Prevent Duty now deploys counter-radicalisation through national networks of education and health-care provision. Localised models of crime prevention (and their statistical, crime prevention epistemologies) have been de-emphasised in favour of big data inflected epistemologies of inductive, population-wide “safeguarding”. Through the biopolitical discourse of “safeguarding vulnerable adults”, the Prevent Duty has radically reconstituted the epidemiological imagination of pre-criminal space, imagining that all bodies are potentially vulnerable to infection by radicalisers and thus warrant surveillance.     

The ‘rule of experts’ in making a dynamic micro-insurance industry in India

India is reported to have the most dynamic micro-insurance market in the world and the largest weather-index insurance market among developing countries. This is interesting because, paradoxically, reports readily suggest that the primary hindrance for the industry is the widespread lack of effective demand for insurance. This paper seeks to identify, understand and problematize the paradox of resolutely promoting micro-insurance and its apparent rapid growth despite a manifest absence of demand for insurance. Neo-classical theories about risk-averse behaviour do not explain the current lack of appeal of insurance among the poor. Rather, I draw on a postcolonial political economy framework to argue that expert investment in getting prices and culture right while safeguarding micro-insurance supply currently explains the celebrated dynamism of Indian micro-insurance. I argue that promoting comprehensive institutional reform for an ideal investment and entrepreneurial climate involves securing mutually beneficial linkages, collaborations and knowledge within a broad assemblage of profit motives, insurance expertise, policy-makers and professionals. Insurance experts rule by promoting the micro-insurance sector while simultaneously investing in and gaining from discursive, material and pedagogical construction of this industry. Future research should address whether such processes and products are effective in managing financial risks of the poor.     

“Making It”: Understanding Adolescent Resilience in Two Informal Settlements (Slums) in Nairobi,Kenya

Many adolescents living in contexts characterized by adversity achieve positive outcomes. We adopt a protection–risk conceptual framework to examine resilience (academic achievement, civic participation, and avoidance of risk behaviors) among 1,722 never-married 12–19 year olds living in two Kenyan urban slums. We find stronger associations between explanatory factors and resilience among older (15–19 years) than younger (12–14 years) adolescents. Models for prosocial behavior and models for antisocial behavior emerge as key predictors of resilience. Further accumulation of evidence on risk and protective factors is needed to inform interventions to promote positive outcomes among youth situated in an ecology of adversity.     

Procedural justice,obligation to obey,and cooperation with police in a sample of Jamaican citizens

ABSTRACT

Procedural justice theory plays a central role in understanding police–citizen relationships. To test the universality of procedural justice theory, researchers have tended to assess the relative impacts of normative and instrumental models of policing in different geopolitical contexts. Building on Reisig and Lloyd’s study in Jamaica, we test in the current study the relative impacts of procedural justice (a normative factor) and police effectiveness and risk of sanctioning (instrumental factors) on Jamaicans’ obligation to obey the police and willingness to cooperate with police. We found that procedural justice predicted both obligation to obey and cooperation, although obligation did not predict cooperation. And while effectiveness predicted obligation, it was not significantly related to cooperation. Lastly, older citizens were more willing to cooperate with police. The study’s implications for policy and future research are discussed.     

Stage model for female criminals: business school students’ perceptions of white-collar offenders

We know that half of the population in Norway is female, and we know that females represent 6% of the white-collar crime prison population. In the stage model overview, we derive percentages from the literature into the gender model to explain stepwise reduction from 50% to 6%. In our empirical research, we asked two groups of business school students to come up with their own estimates for the stages in the model for female criminals. While estimates from executive students resulted in 3% women in prison, bachelor students’ estimates resulted in 10% women in prison. The most obvious discrepancy between the research literature and our two survey groups is related to relative convictions. Based on the literature, we suggested that female defendants receive more serious convictions because they may perceive and feel more guilt for a crime, for example in terms of regret, shame and depression. Thus women may have a tendency to confess more easily. Both executive students and bachelor students disagree with this estimate of 140%, as they suggest 62% and 69% respectively. One reason for their suggestion of less serious convictions for female white-collar criminals – sometimes labelled pink-collar criminals – might be that family situation and other elements are taken into account before a verdict is passed on a woman. Another substantial discrepancy is related to detection risk. The literature suggests a low detection risk for women, but may be not as low as we estimated at 30%. Both executive and bachelor students believe that the gender difference in detection likelihood is not that formidable, as they suggest 75% and 65% respectively.     

The Public Management of Risk: The Case for Deliberating among Worldviews

This article argues that the public management of risk faces inherent "wicked issue" problems which are further accentuated in the context of the contemporary regulatory state. It is suggested that in order to overcome these limitations and inevitable trade-offs, there needs to be a more conscientious effort in setting out distinct components of any public management of risk, which should be considered and discussed through the lens of distinct worldviews contrasting interpretations and solutions, as well as potential "black-spots." It is only by acknowledging limitations of any one strategy and by considering plural solutions that there is less likelihood of disappointment when dealing with crises and disasters.