An experience report regarding the performance of the IBIS correlator

The majority of published experimental evaluations of the performance of the IBIS system are based on very specific conditions, mainly considering IBIS as a tool to create a "ballistic database." No recent reports were found covering the performance of the IBIS system to search an open case file of realistic structure. In this paper, the performance of the IBIS correlator will be evaluated, based on four different data sources that predominantly concern the operation of the central collection of evidence ammunition of the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA), Germany. The results allow a conclusion on the success and error rates to be expected of the IBIS correlator in a realistic OCFDB ("open case file database") environment, given certain conditions. It was found that success rates of 75-95% for cartridge case comparisons and 50-75% for bullet comparisons can be achieved in practice. Recommendations for a most efficient way to operate the IBIS electronic comparison system will be presented based on the results of the evaluations. The terms and definitions in this report completely correspond with the definitions in an earlier article. Familiarity with this article is therefore absolutely necessary to fully understand many of the statements presented here.     

循环经济的新制度经济学探析

循环经济是在资源与环境约束下追求有效经济增长的一种新的经济发展模式,目前中国已将发展循环经济作为一项基本国策,但是在实施过程中还缺乏相应的理论指导与制度安排。文章首先归纳了现有经济增长理论的不足,之后从新制度经济学的角度对循环经济进行了剖析,并概要提出了发展循环经济的制度框架。     

循环经济的本质与我国发展循环经济的路径选择

本文从循环经济的基本理论入手，探讨了循环经济概念的渊源，指出循环经济是一种全新的发展模式，并且论述了发展循环经济的必要性，分析了中国发展循环经济面临的问题，最后提供了推进循环经济的路径选择：加大宣传发展循环经济的重要意义；不断调整和优化产业结构；建立和完善循环经济政策和体制；为循环经济发展提供有力的技术支撑；探索建立绿色国民经济核算体系；选择发展循环经济的优先领域；加强国际合作，追踪先进理论和科技；加强循环经济法制建设等九项措施。     

抢劫银行:高成功率的职业犯罪

近几年 ,抢劫银行犯罪较为突出 ,数量增多 ,性质恶化。本文通过对最近几年发生的 2 2起抢劫银行案件的研究发现 :抢劫银行犯罪是当前一类高成功率的暴力犯罪 ,原因在于犯罪人日趋职业化 ,涉暴武器的泛滥和银行自身防范不足等。为此 ,笔者认为 ,应采取有效措施对这种犯罪进行防范。     

循环经济的理论基础是生态经济学

循环经济的理论基础是生态经济学。生态经济学从宏观角度将生态和经济相结合,改变生产和消费方式,高效合理利用自然资源。循环经济根据这一理论,建立经济系统的循环组分及过程、运行机制和具体措施,使物质和能源在不断循环中科学持续利用,尽可能降低经济活动对环境的不利影响。本文结合实际案例,分析了生态学中生态位、食物链、能量梯级利用和生态平衡等原理对循环经济的借鉴作用,并提出了促进循环经济发展的建议。     

亚洲国家汇率制度变革的教训及启示

人民币汇率问题是一个敏感的问题。人民币汇率能否稳定,将会直接影响到我国能否保持一个稳定的改革环境,能否保持较高的经济增长速度,能否提高企业特别是出口型企业产品的市场竞争力,事关我国的经济发展和民族利益。保持人民币汇率的基本稳定是我国促进经济发展的现实选择。之所以作出这一现实选择,主要原因在于我国现在不具备人民币升值的基本条件。尽管我国经济处于快速发展的阶段,在世界贸易中的地位逐步提高,但我国毕竟是一个发展中的大国,总体上不具备使人民币升值的雄厚物质基础和经济实力。货币的升值要在综合考虑到各方面的影响后再作出决定,切不可从考虑经济以外的因素来让本国货币升值。     

关于人民币升值预期下我国货币政策有关问题的思考

在人民币升值预期下,中国要扩大对外开放,从中国自身的利益角度出发,应该实施由市场供求决定的灵活的汇率制度。政府不要干预过多,否则不可能存在比较独立的货币政策。因此,在我国建立一个有效的货币政策体系前,必须保持汇率稳定,以减少风险和波动。     

填埋场渗沥液治理技术路线与再生回用探讨

分析了北京市生活垃圾卫生填埋场渗沥液的特点,并对回灌堆体、场内建渗沥液处理设施和送城市污水厂三种渗沥液治理路线进行分析.同时,从经济、技术、环境效益和社会效益等几个方面对渗沥液再生回用可行性进行分析.最后对不同建设规模的卫生填埋场渗沥液治理方式提出了建议.     

When Do Low Roll Rates Indicate Party Influence? Evidence from Counterfactual Roll Rates

A simulation-based counterfactual is one way to solve the observational equivalence challenge that seemingly “partisan” majority-party roll rates can be observed in the absence of any actual party influence. We simulate no-partisan-agenda-control counterfactual roll rates and apply them across sessions of the US House of Representatives and 86 state legislative chambers to evaluate the extent to which observed roll rates provide evidence for party influence on the legislative agenda. After assessing and controlling for the baseline risk of majority-party rolls, there is significant evidence of party influence on roll rates in some state legislatures, particularly those with rules that grant parties more agenda power, and in the post-Reed’s-rules House of Representatives. Institutional rules interact with the (simulated) risk of a majority roll to shape observed roll rates across chambers and across time.