试析当前美国经济走势

美国经济形势自去年第4季度开始趋于严峻,经济增速大幅下降,股市大跌,消费者信心受重挫;制造业濒临衰退,高新技术产业持续不振;失业率、通胀率有所上升等.但由于美经济实力雄厚,基础条件较好,市场对外资吸引力不减;新经济仍有生命力;美在经济全球化中处于有利地位;世界石油价格回落;美联储的调控渐起作用;布什政府出台一系列有利于经济恢复和发展的政策等,美国经济出现衰退的可能性不大.     

日本妇女的M型就业状况问题与对策

M型就业是由于结婚生育而形成的妇女劳动力率的变化,是一些发达国家妇女就业的主要模式,其中以日本最为典型.M型就业模式强化了妇女在发展过程中的边缘化地位,不仅有悖于日本"男女共同参与社会"的基本理论,而且也不利于日本经济和社会的可持续发展.为此,日本政府颁行了一系列促进妇女就业的法律政策,力求通过营造兼顾工作和家庭的良好社会环境来促进妇女就业,收到了积极效果.     

西部大开发中可持续发展问题研究

西部大开发中客观上面临水资源缺乏、水土流失严重等问题,主观上存在环保意识淡薄、片面认识人力资源便宜优势、政府与市场关系定位不清等问题.因此,西部大开发应遵循有中国特色的可持续发展思想,要建立完善的投资政策环境,重点扶持环保产业发展,大力加强基础设施建设.     

美元的信用下降与中国的策略选择

全球经济正在经历着一场前所未有的变革,而美元则站在这场变革的前沿。可以看到,随着美元的不断贬值,美国物价上涨的速度有时会超过收入增长的速度。随着美元购买力的下跌,美国人以不变价格计算的真实收入实际上在下降,他们不得不用更多的美元去购买相同的东西,相对落后的收入增长却无法弥补价格的膨胀。在国际贸易上,美国的贸易赤字不断扩大,而且还会继续扩大,美国已成为世界最大的债务国,美国经济中的泡沫加剧了美国经济的滑坡,令人遗憾的是,美国无法就此刹车,美元的国际信用下降是不可遏制的。美元信用下降将给全球带来巨大影响,我国必须对此做出策略选择。     

Homicide and economic change: Recent analyses of the Joint Economic Committee report of 1984

The relation between recession and homicide is classic in the United States. This has been affirmed in the 1976 and 1984 Reports to the Joint Economic Committee (JEC) of the United States Congress. Recent analysis confirms the findings reported in both 1976 and 1984 and demonstrates that the influence of recession on homicide is greater than previously estimated. Differences in the 1976 and 1984 findings on homicide are related to differences in the hypotheses tested, as discussed in detail and highlighted in the 1984 report. JEC staff correctly interpreted and reported the 1984 findings. Reproduction of the 1984 homicide equation is straightforward, provided the same data and any of several standard estimation techniques are used. Evidence does not support any of Cook and Zarkin's claims in their critique of the 1984 homicide equation. The JEC report of 1984 used appropriate techniques in the attempt (a) to ensure that influences attributed to economic changes are not actually due to other social factors and (b) to minimize underspecification of models.     

从人民币汇率制度改革看中美关系的前景

经济全球化背景下中美关系的纷争不可能回避货币汇率制度。近年来在人民币汇率制度改革过程中,中美两国政府的多重多次博弈,展现出中美关系中合作与冲突的鲜明特征。只有理性地分析中美两国间的利益与分歧,才能在有限的冲突中达成合作。     

汇率制度对宏观经济的影响探析

自20世纪80年代以来,汇率制度与金融危机的关系日渐密切。汇率制度作为一种重要的金融制度,它会对一国宏观经济产生广泛而重大的影响。文章分析了固定汇率制度和浮动汇率制度对宏观经济的不同影响,得出结论:一国汇率制度的选择会受到各种经济因素的制约,因此,各国政府应根据本国国情来选择合适的汇率制度。     

试论房贷利率上调对购房者的影响及应对措施

继2004年央行加息后,2005年又单独对房地产行业的利率上调,给购房者带来了一些始料未及的影响,对消费者的心理影响将大于它的涨幅影响,促使提前还贷的人数会再次提高.     

THE EFFECTS OF LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT BLOCK GRANTS ON SERIOUS CRIME*

Research Summary The Local Law Enforcement Block Grants (LLEBG) Program was second only to the Community‐Oriented Policing Services (COPS) Program in its funding levels. Some $3 billion was dispensed to local jurisdictions to reduce crime and improve public safety; yet the effects of LLEBG funding on crime have been all but ignored. Accordingly, panel data from more than 5,000 cities covering a 12‐year period (1990–2001) were collected, and index crime rates were regressed on LLEBG funding and appropriate demographic controls. Additional controls for police levels and other federal grants were also introduced, proper checks for endogeneity of grants (and police levels) were performed, and the models were subjected to an array of robustness checks. A consistent message emerged: LLEBG Program funding was associated with significant reductions in serious crime. Policy Implications Although LLEBG funding seemed to reduce serious crime, the results also revealed that the decrease did not occur through the hiring of additional police officers, even though many funds were used for that purpose. Other mechanisms were thus at work, but the data did not provide insights into what these mechanisms were. In any case, every $1 in LLEBG funding per capita was associated with approximately 59 fewer index crimes per 100,000 people. When combined with the findings from recent studies of the effects of community policing grants on crime, this study suggests additional federal support for local law‐enforcement agencies should be considered.