基本养老保险政策区域不均衡研究

由于政策规定和执行均存在差异,我国基本养老保险政策区域不均衡显著。文章分别采用广义熵、阿特金森指数和基尼系数测量顶部、底部和中部不均衡,先考察基本养老保险政策的省内、省际不均衡,再采用PSM-DID和准合成控制法识别2016年阶段性降费率政策对区域不均衡的影响。研究发现:全国省内不均衡程度,贵州最低,福建顶部和中部较高、辽宁底部较高。2008-2017年全国顶部、底部和中部省内不均衡总体下降,其中天津降幅最大,但还有约三分之一的省未下降,且2016年阶段性降费率政策加剧省内不均衡,尤其是底部不均衡;2008-2017年全国顶部、底部和中部省际不均衡总体下降,2016年阶段性降费率政策减弱省际不均衡,尤其是底部不均衡。     

论工会在促进新生代民工发展中的重要作用

2003年,全国总工会提出要把农民工群体纳入到工会的管理序列。但由于农民工的流动性强、文化素质低等原因,农民工的入会率一直都不高。新生代民工的出现使农民工群体的许多特征发生了变化,而这些变化为工会在保护农民工利益方面发挥其应有作用提供了良好机遇。我国工会的性质和职能,决定了工会要在促进新生代民工发展中承担重要的责任,根据新生代民工的群体特征,在促进新生代民工发展的过程中切实发挥其应有的作用。     

Analysis on the Policy Effects of Strict Inflation and Flexible Inflation in Interest Rate Liberalization

This paper analyzes the policy effects of interest rate liberalization under strict inflation targeting and flexible inflation targeting, which is based on the new theory of Keynes model and the introduction of price stickiness in the framework of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium. By building, calibrating, estimating and simulating a new Keynesian DSGE model, we analyze and compare the effect of strict inflation targeting and flexible inflation targeting in the process of the interest rate liberalization. Research results show that, first of all, the strict inflation targeting regulation makes the output volatility smaller and the inflation volatility greater in face of technology shocks. Secondly, the flexible inflation target system is more conducive to controlling output and inflation in the short period when facing monetary policy shocks. Finally, the control of the strict inflation target is less from the point of view of the loss function. In other words, the central bank's loss function under the control of the strict inflation target system is small, but the flexible inflation targeting system is more conducive to controlling output and inflation in the short period.     

补充性养老保险对职工养老保险替代率影响的实证分析

随着人口老龄化趋势的加剧,养老金支付压力逐年递增,改革基本养老保险制度迫在眉睫。制度的改革一定程度上会导致职工养老保险替代率降低,发展补充性养老保险制度对提高养老保险的总和替代率起到了重要作用。本文通过构建补充性养老保险替代率的精算模型,测算基本养老保险替代率和职业年金、企业年金替代率,比较机关事业单位和企业职工在养老保险制度改革后的养老保险待遇的变化,并通过比较有无企业年金对企业职工养老保险替代率的影响来倡导企业为职工建立企业年金。     

中俄两国货币国际化的形势分析

实行本国货币自由兑换,最终成为世界货币是世界大国国家竞争战略的一个重要组成部分。从汇率制度改革的进度看,俄罗斯要领先于中国一步。从货币的国际影响来看,人民币在周边国家居民中已经逐渐被认可并接受,人民币作为交易货币和清算货币已是事实。货币国际化的前提是本国经济的国际化,而要达到这一点无论是中国还是俄罗斯,都还有很长的路要走。     

Revised equations allowing the estimation of the uncertainty associated with the Total Body Water version of the Widmark equation

Widmark calculations are the most commonly used alcohol calculations to estimate a) the amount of alcohol consumed based on blood alcohol concentration (BAC) and b) BACs at a set time after consumption of a known amount of alcohol. These calculations are vital in forensic casework. Previous work has demonstrated that using general error propagation-based equations the variability associated with alcohol calculations can be estimated, but these equations have only been determined for the volume of distribution version of the Widmark equation. However, recent investigations have shown that the total body water (TBW) version of the Widmark equation is more reliable than the version that utilizes the apparent volume of distribution of ethanol. To date, there is no general error propagation equation to determine the variability associated the TBW version of the Widmark equation. Using previously published studies of 185 individuals in which alcohol elimination rate (β) and ethanol's volume of distribution were determined, we have shown that there is a negative correlation (?0.247) between the alcohol elimination rate (β) and TBW. Using these data, we were able to produce equations allowing the estimation of the variability of the results calculated using the TBW version of the Widmark equation. This will allow forensic practitioners to give the best determination of the variability associated with Widmark calculations currently possible.     

福建汉族人群亲权鉴定中基因突变现象的观察分析

观察福建地区亲权鉴定中常用STR基因座突变现象,分析福建汉族人群遗传突变率和一些常用位点的突变情况。在3702例亲权关系鉴定的案例中,观察到79例发生基因突变,D8S1179、D21S11、D7S820等15个位点发生突变。     

优化农村治安控制模式之方略

改革开放后的农村犯罪比重剧降和犯罪率仍远低于城市等不过是犯罪统计的技术性因素所造成的假象。实际上,农村实有人口犯罪率的增速和治安局势的严峻程度都甚于城市。究其原因,主要是社会转型期农村地区的治安群防措施处于基本无法组织或失效状态,其治安生态系统更为脆弱,更需用强化打击违法犯罪之力度的方式来维护平衡。但有关方面却未能及时调整思路,没有把打击违法犯罪放在更为重要的位置。因此,要优化农村治安控制模式,制止农村治安不断恶化的趋势,就必须在大力促进政策预防和提升家庭、个人预防的质量和水平的同时,增加打击犯罪、查处违法的警力,实施“均衡打击”策略。     

循环经济建设的指导思想与立法方策——以十七大精神为指引

十七大报告进一步阐发和强调的科学发展观,是我国循环经济建设的重要指导思想。虽然循环经济面对的主要是"物",但核心则是"人"。其针对性主要是克服、扭转对自然资源利用的异化和由此产生的人的本质的异化。为此要使生态文明观念在全社会牢固树立,基本形成节约能源资源和保护生态环境的产业结构、增长方式、消费模式。在循环经济立法方略与技术上,也需要对如何节约执法、守法的成本多加考量,以促进提高社会效益与效率。