“非市场经济国家”规则比较研究

随着中国对外贸易的迅速发展,中国企业遭到了以诸多理由为基础的反倾销措施的重创。“倾销”成立与否的关键在于对损害的认定,而此项认定又依赖于对正常价值的判定,正是这一环节上,诸多国家对倾销企业所属国作了是否为“市场经济国家”的区分,似乎是为了寻求更精准的正常价值,然而“公平”的外表却掩饰不了实质的不公平。因此,本文在比较各国的规则及其根源,深入分析中国的自身现实优势和不足的基础上,提出了一些应对的策略。     

薄层色谱法鉴别口红

本文报道利用薄层色谱鉴别口红的方法.实验选用95%乙醇作溶剂提取口红中的色料,乙酸乙酯一甲醇—水(3.6:2.2:1.2)作展开剂进行色谱分离,观测色谱斑点的颜色、数量、比移值和荧光性,综合分析和比较这些色谱信息,可以确定口红的品牌和生产厂家.     

A survival model of pretrial failure

This paper examines the likelihood of rearrest during the pretrial period with a model that depends on both time elapsed since release and on individual and case characteristics. Using data on a sample of male arrestees released on recognizance in the District of Columbia in 1984, we apply a survival or hazard model to the problem of predicting pretrial rearrest. We are particularly interested in whether drug use, as measured by urinalysis at arrest, is predictive of pretrial rearrest and its timing. Results show, for example, that drug use or a charge for larceny is associated with high risk levels in the period immediately following release. In our data, the number of prior convictions exerts a strong effect on rearrest risk throughout the pretrial period, but the initial high risk associated with being on probation or parole or having pending charges decreases rapidly over the course of a year at risk.     

中国汉族人群41个STR基因座突变情况的观察分析

目的调查41个STR基因座在中国汉族人群中的突变情况。方法收集1 932个三联体家系4 546份血样本,采用AGCU_21+1、AGCU_EX22、Global Filer_Express~(TM)系统扩增41个STR基因座分型,统计各基因座发生突变的频率。结果 150个三联体在32个基因座共观察到154次突变,平均突变率为1.0×10~(-3)(95%CI:0.8~1.1×10~(-3)),突变率最高的是基因座SE33。其中一步突变152次(98.7%),两步突变2次(1.3%);146个三联体仅1个基因座发生突变(97.3%),4个三联体在2个基因座发生突变(2.7%);父、母来源突变比率约为4.7:1。结论 STR基因座等位基因突变现象较为常见,亲子鉴定时应引起注意。     

Evidentiary Standards for Forensic Anthropology*

Abstract: As issues of professional standards and error rates continue to be addressed in the courts, forensic anthropologists should be proactive by developing and adhering to professional standards of best practice. There has been recent increased awareness and interest in critically assessing some of the techniques used by forensic anthropologists, but issues such as validation, error rates, and professional standards have seldom been addressed. Here we explore the legal impetus for this trend and identify areas where we can improve regarding these issues. We also discuss the recent formation of a Scientific Working Group for Forensic Anthropology (SWGANTH), which was created with the purposes of encouraging discourse among anthropologists and developing and disseminating consensus guidelines for the practice of forensic anthropology. We believe it is possible and advisable for anthropologists to seek and espouse research and methodological techniques that meet higher standards to ensure quality and consistency in our field.     

Predicting Sex Offender Recidivism. I. Correcting for Item Overselection and Accuracy Overestimation in Scale Development. II. Sampling Error-Induced Attenuation of Predictive Validity Over Base Rate Information

The authors demonstrate a statistical bootstrapping method for obtaining unbiased item selection and predictive validity estimates from a scale development sample, using data (N = 256) of Epperson et al. [2003 Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) technical paper: Development, validation, and recommended risk level cut scores. Retrieved November 18, 2006 from Iowa State University Department of Psychology web site: http://www.psychology.iastate.edu/ approximately dle/mnsost_download.htm] from which the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) was developed. Validity (area under receiver operating characteristic curve) reported by Epperson et al. was .77 with 16 items selected. The present analysis yielded an asymptotically unbiased estimator AUC = .58. The present article also focused on the degree to which sampling error renders estimated cutting scores (appropriate to local [varying] recidivism base rates) nonoptimal, so that the long-run performance (measured by correct fraction, the total proportion of correct classifications) of these estimated cutting scores is poor, when they are applied to their parent populations (having assumed values for AUC and recidivism rate). This was investigated by Monte Carlo simulation over a range of AUC and recidivism rate values. Results indicate that, except for the AUC values higher than have ever been cross-validated, in combination with recidivism base rates severalfold higher than the literature average [Hanson and Morton-Bourgon, 2004, Predictors of sexual recidivism: An updated meta-analysis. (User report 2004-02.). Ottawa: Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada], the user of an instrument similar in performance to the MnSOST-R cannot expect to achieve correct fraction performance notably in excess of what is achievable from knowing the population recidivism rate alone. The authors discuss the legal implications of their findings for procedural and substantive due process in relation to state sexually violent person commitment statutes and the Supreme Court's Kansas v. Hendricks decision regarding the constitutionality of such statutes.     

山东外贸应对金融危机的增长方式转变对策研究

金融危机使中国经济也不可避免地受到了影响。山东作为出口大省,外贸对整个经济的影响巨大,文章对山东外贸的增长方式进行了研究,分析了金融危机影响下山东外贸的情况,以2008年的数据分析了中国宏观环境的变化,然后以2009年一季度的数据具体说明了金融危机对山东进出口的影响。进而分析了主要的影响因素,同时指出了存在的问题,包括：服务贸易发展相对较慢,出口产品中缺乏核心技术和自有品牌,产品价格低,资源消耗高,山东企业＂走出去＂的步代相对迟缓。依据存在的问题提出了相应的对策：促进货物贸易与服务贸易的协调发展;实施名牌战略,提升企业核心竞争力;发挥行业协会的组织作用,避免同行恶性竞争;以＂走出去＂战略促进山东省外贸增长方式的转变。     

汇率及其波动与日本对华直接投资

日本是我国重要的贸易伙伴和外商直接投资来源国。影响日本企业对我国直接投资的因素可能有多种,本文拟从汇率因素切入,并以日本对华直接投资的事实数据和特征为背景,研究日元与人民币双边真实汇率对日本对华直接投资的影响。首先通过GARCH模型对双边真实汇率的波动进行测算,然后以此变量和真实汇率变量为基础,通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解技术,研究真实汇率水平及其波动对流入我国的日本FDI带来的影响。模型结果显示,双边真实汇率及其波动均对FDI产生了显著影响,而且该影响同理论预期相吻合,说明真实汇率是影响日本对华直接投资的重要因素,现阶段保持人民币汇率的相对稳定性有利于日本对华直接投资的增长。     

证人拒证权制度探析

我国刑事审判方式于刑事诉讼法修改后确立了“抗辩式”的模式 ,但事实表明 ,这一改变并没有导致审判方式的根本变化 ,表现在证据制度方面就是证人出庭作证率低下。解决这一实践中的难题 ,应该从更深的层面上找原因 ,而不应仅仅局限于表面现象。建立证人拒证权制度 ,是根治这一问题的关键。在我国建立证人拒证权制度具有相当的必要性和重要意义 ,立法者应当在证据立法中为该制度留有一席之地。     

The Examination of Commercial Printing Defects to Assess Common Origin,Batch Variation,and Error Rate*

Abstract: The examination of printing defects, or imperfections, found on printed or copied documents has been recognized as a generally accepted approach for linking questioned documents to a common source. This research paper will highlight the results from two mutually exclusive studies. The first involved the examination and characterization of printing defects found in a controlled production run of 500,000 envelopes bearing text and images. It was concluded that printing defects are random occurrences and that morphological differences can be used to identify variations within the same production batch. The second part incorporated a blind study to assess the error rate of associating randomly selected envelopes from different retail locations to a known source. The examination was based on the comparison of printing defects in the security patterns found in some envelopes. The results demonstrated that it is possible to associate envelopes to a common origin with a 0% error rate.