Fingerprint error rate on close non‐matches

The accuracy of fingerprint identifications is critically important to the administration of criminal justice. Accuracy is challenging when two prints from different sources have many common features and few dissimilar features. Such print pairs, known as close non‐matches (CNMs), are increasingly likely to arise as ever‐growing databases are searched with greater frequency. In this study, 125 fingerprint agencies completed a mandatory proficiency test that included two pairs of CNMs. The false‐positive error rates on the two CNMs were 15.9% (17 out of 107, 95% C.I.: 9.5%, 24.2%) and 28.1% (27 out of 96, 95% C.I.: 19.4%, 38.2%), respectively. These CNM error rates are (a) inconsistent with the popular notion that fingerprint evidence is nearly infallible, and (b) larger than error rates reported in leading fingerprint studies. We conclude that, when the risk of CNMs is high, the probative value of a reported fingerprint identification may be severely diminished due to an elevated false‐positive error risk. We call for additional CNM research, including a replication and expansion of the present study using a representative selection of CNMs from database searches.     

豆状囊尾蚴外泌体的分离鉴定及其对家兔免疫应答的调节作用

为探究豆状囊尾蚴外泌体对家兔免疫应答的调节作用,以收集的豆状囊尾蚴分泌排泄产物(ESP)为材料,通过差速离心法分离外泌体,经透射电镜和Western-blot分别对其形态和标志分子进行鉴定。分别用外泌体和ESP免疫家兔,ELISA方法检测家兔血清中特异性抗体和血清细胞因子水平,并通过人工攻虫感染评价其免疫保护效果。结果显示,豆状囊尾蚴外泌体直径为30~150 nm,呈圆形或椭圆形,有完整的脂质双分子层膜结构,且含有外泌体标志蛋白CD63。而且,外泌体免疫组血清特异性抗体、IL-10和IL-4的水平显著升高(P<0.05),而IFN-γ和TNF-α显著降低(P<0.05)或差异不显著。经剖检发现,豆状囊尾蚴ESP免疫组和外泌体免疫组的减虫率分别为65.17%和24.88%。结果表明,外泌体通过上调宿主抑炎因子的表达,诱导宿主产生了Th2型细胞免疫应答,从而有利于囊尾蚴在宿主体内的存活。     

刺激犬体表感受器对心脏表面神经元和心脏功能的影响

为了给“抑制死”提供实验根据和理论依据,模拟“抑制死”的体表刺激,用3.0kg触压麻醉开胸犬的心前区、剑突下,同步记录大右心房神经节丛神经元内单位放电的频数及心脏变时。变力性反应。静脉给入普来洛尔（1mg／kg）或阿托品（1mg／kg）及心脏急性会神经支配后,重复上述刺激。结果显示：触压犬心前区可直接引起心脏表面神经节丛内的副交感神经元兴奋,窦房结自律性降低,引起负性频率作用;在此基础上刺激兴奋心脏表面交感神经元可诱发室性心律失常。提示刺激心前区、剑突下引起的“抑制死”,不仅与迷走神经对心脏的抑制有关,可能还与交感神经元对心室的兴奋有关。     

The Reliability of Pattern Classification in Bloodstain Pattern Analysis,Part 1: Bloodstain Patterns on Rigid Non‐absorbent Surfaces

This study was designed to produce the first baseline measure of reliability in bloodstain pattern classification. A panel of experienced bloodstain pattern analysts examined over 400 spatter patterns on three rigid non‐absorbent surfaces. The patterns varied in spatter type and extent. A case summary accompanied each pattern that either contained neutral information, information to suggest the correct pattern (i.e., was positively biasing), or information to suggest an incorrect pattern (i.e., was negatively biasing). Across the variables under examination, 13% of classifications were erroneous. Generally speaking, where the pattern was more difficult to recognize (e.g., limited staining extent or a patterned substrate), analysts became more conservative in their judgment, opting to be inconclusive. Incorrect classifications increased as a function of the negatively biasing contextual information. The implications of the findings for practice are discussed.     

The Contribution of the “Dutch School” in Public Finance to the Theory of Personal Income Taxation (1870–1920)

Hansen's dissertation (1996) is an impressive, highly valuable, and thorough study on the problems of income taxation in Germany. These problems were also extensively discussed in Dutch economic literature around 1900. Several authors took part in the discussion, and some were also involved as politicians. They are referred to as the Dutch School in public finance. The discussions in the Netherlands were of a distinctive character as far as the tax rate (progression) is concerned. With regard to the tax base (the concept of income) there is in the case of the reform of the income tax in 1915, via in particular Treub, close affinity to that thinking in Germany, that is so eminently analyzed by Hansen.     

老龄化是新世纪我国面临的严峻挑战

本首先展望了21世纪我国人口老龄化的发展前景,指出在未来50年中,我国将处于高速度、高水平的老龄化发展进程之中,65岁及以上老年人口将从8000多万增至3亿以上,这对尚处于社会主义初级阶段的国家来说,无疑是个巨大冲击和严峻挑战;分析了老龄化的特殊性及其对社会经济发展所带来的深刻影响和至关重要的制久作用;提出了迎接老龄化挑战是个关系全局性、战略性的重大问题,必须采取有中国特色的正确战略选择。     

对日本少子化问题的新思考

人口少子化是日本政府面临的一个重大课题。首先分析了日本少子化的现状、成因及其对经济社会的影响,然后重点探讨了日本政府的少子化对策并阐述了日本政府在少子化对策上存在的问题。最后在上述分析的基础上为日本政府解决少子化问题在政策方面提出了几点建议。     

Effect of financial sector development and FDI inflow on employment rate in South Asia: New empirical evidence from ARDL approach

The current analysis aims to explore the empirical nexus between financial development, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow, and employment rate. To attain this aim, we collect 30 years of annual data over the period 1990 to 2019 from South Asian economies and employ the autoregressive dynamic least square (ARDL) model for regression analysis. The implication of the ARDL model was subject to the mixed stationarity status of the series as assessed by unit root testing. The robustness of the analysis was checked by employing the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) models. The statistical analysis infers that both financial development and FDI inflow enhance the employment rate in the South Asia region. In addition, the empirical analysis infers that the gross capital formation, economic growth, and export volume have a positive while the population growth rate has a negative effect on the employment rate. The impact of underlying explanatory variables was found significant only in long run. The estimated coefficient values in the case of FMOLS and DOLS models support the direction of the relationship between explanatory variables and employment rate, implying the robustness of the analysis. The findings of the current analysis can be used to devise efficient economic policies to cope with the encroaching issue of unemployment in the South Asia region. This study offers the robustness to existing literature and complements the literature by exploring the underlying arrangement of study to the whole South Asia group.     

试论央行加息的必然性及其影响

目前,我国经济运行中投资、货币信贷等指标均已出现不同程度的回落,但投资反弹的压力仍然较大.那么,要巩固现有成果,适度加息可以起到怎样的作用?加息对巩固前一阶段宏观调控的成果有积极的帮助,但由于加息幅度有限,对资本市场近期内影响将不会十分明显.     

中国式离婚现象透视

我国婚姻法规定的＂离婚自由原则＂,反映了当代世界离婚立法的发展趋势,体现了我国立法的日趋完善和人性化,但同时也带来离婚率上升等一系列社会问题。面对目前离婚的特点,我国应健全婚姻立法和执法体系,以适当控制离婚,达到促进社会和谐发展的目标。