震后恢复与重建中法律关系变更问题研究

汶川地震发生后，在灾区恢复重建活动中遇到的一个很重要问题就是因为法律关系变更导致了大量的法律纠纷和社会矛盾，因此，如何在制度上建立一套规范有序的程序来解决地震灾害所破坏的各种财产关系、人际关系成为法学界和灾区所关注的重要问题。震后恢复重建活动要高度关注权力与权力关系变更、权力与权利关系变更以及权利与权利关系变更三类法律关系变更问题。由于我国目前法律法规关于法律关系变更制度的规定不系统、不规范，致使最高人民法院只有通过司法解释的方式才能解决本来应当由立法机关加以解决的震后灾区各种法律关系变更所引发的法律问题。因此，要通过制定《紧急状态法》、《灾害对策基本法》和《灾害保险法》等等法律法规的立法途径，来进一步规范和完善法律关系变更制度，为震后恢复重建工作提供更加充分和有力的法律保障。     

集贸市场火灾的危险性及其预防对策

文章通过对国内集贸市场火灾案例的解读,从建筑规模、火灾荷载、用火用电、安全疏散、火灾扑救等方面系统研究和分析了集贸市场存在火灾危险性及易引发集贸市场火灾事故的因素,并对集贸市场火灾的预防提出了有针对性的对策和措施。     

人质谈判中的风险评估和方案设计

人质谈判中的风险评估就是指当警方赶到人质劫持现场后,在展开谈判工作和设计谈判方案前,指挥者对此次劫持事件做一个基本的风险评估。只有在判明危机事件情况的基础上,指挥员才能对案件的发展情况做到心中有数,从而把握人质危机处置进程的主动权,使谈判取得成效。结合我国目前人质事件类型,进行人质谈判中的风险评估,以确定谈判时所采取的应对策略,从而设计科学、动态的谈判方案,切实有效地提高谈判的效果。     

住房反抵押货款模式中的预期寿命风险及其承担机制

以住房反抵押贷款模式辅助现行的养老制度，以改善老年人的生活水平、寻求和建立养老保障的新机制，近来收到了广泛的关注。但是该模式在推行中会由于种种不确定性，借贷双方都将面临较大风险，从而使这一模式的推行遭遇相当的障碍。本文着重对该模式推行中涉及的借款者的预期寿命与实际寿命之间的差异风险，以及其承担机制，给予了较深入的探讨。     

The allusive market: insurance of flood risk in neoliberal Britain

Launched in 2016, Flood Re is a government-supported scheme for flood-risk insurance in Britain that is intended to pave the way towards an eventual ‘free’ market featuring risk-reflective pricing. This paper introduces the concept of ‘the allusive market’ to denote the figurative work that the market vision performs in this context. Alluding to the merits of what is in reality a highly implausible market-based future for flood insurance releases the government from having to substantively address intractable problems associated with the financial risk of flooding in the present: the market will come to the rescue. A risk-management crutch, the allusive market engenders contemporary policy paralysis, occasioning in turn the worsening of the very problems that the market is being relied upon, eventually, to resolve.     

On prediction in political science

This article discusses recent moves in political science that emphasise predicting future events rather than theoretically explaining past ones or understanding empirical generalisations. Two types of prediction are defined: pragmatic, and scientific. The main aim of political science is explanation, which requires scientific prediction. Scientific prediction does not necessarily entail pragmatic prediction nor does it necessarily refer to the future, though both are desiderata for political science. Pragmatic prediction is not necessarily explanatory, and emphasising pragmatic prediction will lead to disappointment, as it will not always help in understanding how to intervene to change future outcomes, and policy makers are likely to be disappointed by its time-scale.     

Venue Preference and Earthquake Mitigation Policy: Expanding the Micro‐Model of Policy Choice

Seismologists have reported that a majority of recent earthquakes in Oklahoma have been triggered by the activities of oil and gas companies. Despite this fact, there is evidence of strong opposition toward earthquake mitigation policy. In this article, we argue that how individuals define issues affect their policy choice. Furthermore, we incorporate the concept of venue shopping from the literature on macro theories of the policy process to investigate the effect of problem definition in shaping individual venue preference for policy choice. Using unique survey data, we find that problem definition, particularly issue causality and issue image, is strongly related to individual support for earthquake mitigation policy. However, a more nuanced relationship between individual problem definition and venue preference is observed. Our findings contribute to scholarly endeavors to understand the politics of problem definition at an individual level, which may be the precursor of understanding policy choices at the institutional level.     

少数民族文化风险及其法律规制研究

现代化进程中少数民族文化风险主要指利益分配不均衡引发的风险,文化贬低引发的风险,少数民族文化尊严被漠视引发的风险,传统文化流失所带来的风险,国家文化安全方面的风险等。少数民族文化风险的法律成因主要导源于中国历来的产权制度缺失现象在少数民族文化领域的体现,现行文化法制的缺陷,文化类国际公约在中国实施不充分等。域外的社区知识产权模式、公有领域作品使用付费制度、文化财保护制度、生态博物馆制度、土著权利保护模式等对中国少数民族文化风险的法律规制都有重要的借鉴意义。中国少数民族文化风险法律规制应建立公法与私法并用的混合模式,特别是要构建传统文化产权制度并促进少数民族民众对其文化保护的有效参与。     

技术专家在风险社会中的角色及其限度

在以追求安全为崇高目标的现代性运动中却遭遇了风险的巨大挑战,人类已进入风险社会。风险既具有实在性又具有建构型。在风险建构中,掌握着专业知识的专家扮演着重要角色。进行风险界定,为风险决策提供合法性基础是技术专家在风险社会的重要角色定位,但其角色及其功能实现具有其限度,表现在:技术专家进行的风险界定可能产生更大风险;技术专家风险界定所依赖的量化和实证方法隐含内在缺陷;风险管理是包含技术要素和非技术要素在内的复杂过程,技术专家对非技术问题的解决无能为力。要加强人类社会应对风险的能力,应当进一步提高风险意识,打破专家对风险界定的垄断,实现风险决策结构的开放,使利益相关者可以真正参与到风险决策中来。     

Impact of Political Risk on FDI Revisited—An Aggregate Firm-Level Analysis

Unlike previous studies on political risk and foreign direct investment (FDI) that used macro-level FDI data to test micro-level theories, I make use of aggregate data on U.S. firms' investment activities in 101 developing countries during the period 1997–2007 to reassess the propositions. Using a multilevel mixed-effects linear instrumental variable approach, I find that lower political risk is associated with (a) an increase in U.S. firms with equity stake of 51% and above, (b) a higher proportion of fixed assets, and (c) an increase in the return on investments, after controlling for a host of relevant factors. Further analysis reveals the relationship is also strong with respect to investments in total assets and sales. The results are robust to alternative data, instruments, and estimation techniques. These results bring to fore the multiple risk hedging strategies available for foreign firms operating in high risk environments.